As conference tournaments get underway, we’re here to preview arguably the top mid-major college basketball conference. Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have been a consistent presence in the NCAA Tournament for years, with each looking like a threat to make a deep run in just a couple of weeks.
First is the WCC Tournament, where the Gaels attempt to repeat as champions but will be pushed by an improved field in 2025.
WCC Tournament Overview
Amazingly enough, it’s been 17 years since a program other than Gonzaga or Saint Mary’s has won the WCC conference tournament. During that span, the Bulldogs claimed 12 conference titles, while the Gaels brought in four, including the 2024 title.
Part of the reasoning is because of the steep climb teams have to reach those two teams, who have awaited opponents in the semifinals for much of those years.
However, the conference as a whole has improved dramatically over the years. San Francisco and Santa Clara, for example, have built themselves into consistent forces knocking on the doors of the top two spots.
The 2025 WCC Tournament Bracket. pic.twitter.com/KMbVqctdiF
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 2, 2025
The addition of Oregon State and Washington State this season has also upped the ante, having two former Pac-12 squads join the party. The Beavers eclipsed 20 wins on the season while the Cougars notched 18, solid showings for a season in which they joined a completely different landscape than they’re used to.
But after all, it goes through Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. The Gaels won both meetings between the two this season — but the Bulldogs are still the betting favorite to win the conference.
It’ll be an intriguing week of hoops at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV — who’s poised to come out on top? We’ll start from the very beginning and find our best value bet for the highly-anticipated WCC Tournament.
WCC Tournament Prediction — First Round
No. 10 Pacific vs. No. 11 San Diego Prediction – Thu., March 6, 5:30 p.m. ET
Having split their regular-season matchups and not reaching double-digit wins this season, this one is an actual coin flip. San Diego, despite losing their prior 16 games, finished the regular season with an 82-80 win against Portland. Meanwhile, the Tigers finished with four consecutive losses.
The winner of this game will take on No. 7-seed Loyola Marymount on Friday evening. The Lions proved themselves to be a solid team, finishing the season with a slightly above-.500 record. They should roll the Toreros, who will carry their late-season victory into the conference tournament and pick up their sixth win of the season.
Prediction: San Diego 74, Pacific 69
No. 8 Portland vs. No. 9 Pepperdine – Fri., March 7, 9:00 p.m. ET
The Pilots emerged victorious in both games in this season series while mounting a late-season surge up the conference standings. They nearly reached Loyola Marymount, which would’ve granted them a first-round bye. Alas, they’ll take on the Waves, who stumbled to five straight losses to end the regular season.
Oregon State will be the winner. The Beavers have significantly improved this season but suffered a disappointing loss to Portland three weeks ago. If the Pilots beat Pepperdine, they may have a chance to make some noise and keep their season going longer than anticipated.
Prediction: Portland 82, Pepperdine 71
WCC Tournament Format
The WCC continues another year with one of the oddest-looking brackets in college basketball. It’s essentially a ladder, with a team awaiting the previous game’s winner all the way to the semifinals, where Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga will join on Monday evening — four days after the tournament has begun.
This model clearly favors the best of the best in the conference, essentially shutting out any opportunities for a low-seeded team to make a run.
Let’s take the Portland Pilots, for example. For them to win the conference championship, they’d have to pass through No. 9 Pepperdine, No. 5 Oregon State, No. 4 Santa Clara, No. 1 Saint Mary’s, and more than likely No. 2 Gonzaga.
While that may seem normal, those games would come on consecutive nights, with each team they play having not played for a week outside of the championship game. Fatigue would become a significant factor.
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The format is a major reason the Gaels and Bulldogs are the top two favorites to win the whole thing, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. They only have to win one game before reaching the championship game.
The third-highest odds are Santa Clara—at +2000. Despite losing to Saint Mary’s twice in the regular season, Gonzaga is the favorite (-155). The Gaels are right behind (+150), while Santa Clara, San Francisco (+2700), and Oregon State (+5500) round out the top five.
While not impossible, those odds support the argument of just how improbable a run would be from a non-No. 1 or No. 2 seed in this WCC format.
The clear best bet is with the Gaels. Beating a team three times is hard, but they’ve shown a formula for beating the Bulldogs twice already—I’d be willing to bet they could do it a third time.
Gonzaga is not what it has been in past years. The name brand suggests more than the product they’ve put on the floor this season. Take Saint Mary’s at plus-value to repeat as WCC Tournament champions in 2025.
Best Bet: Saint Mary’s — WCC Tournament Winner (+150)
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