The Pittsburgh Panthers are vying to keep their hopes alive of claiming an NCAA Tournament bid as they’ll welcome the struggling Virginia Cavaliers on Monday night. The Cavaliers winning two of their last four games should be considered a success in a mostly-lost season for interim head coach Ron Sanchez.
The Panthers, meanwhile, still hold hope of being considered for the Big Dance. Find out if they can take another step forward in our Virginia vs. Pittsburgh prediction. Here are our best bets and analysis as it pertains to the spread, total, and money line.
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Betting Preview
All Virginia vs. Pittsburgh odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Monday, Feb. 3, 2025.
- Spread
Pittsburgh -13 - CSN Spread
Pittsburgh -12.5 - Moneyline
Pittsburgh -1000, Virginia +650 - Over/Under
132 points - Game Time
Monday, Feb. 3, 7 ET - Location
Peterson Events Center | Pittsburgh, Penn. - How To Watch
ESPN
Virginia has had trouble covering on the season, with a 9-13 record ATS. They’ve only covered five of 13 games an underdog.
The over has been a very successful bet for the Cavaliers — especially as of late. Five straight overs have hit, including seven of their last eight. Overall, 13 of 22 games have gone over the listed point total.
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Pittsburgh is 11-10 ATS this season, but covering eight of 12 on their home court. Of their eight games as a double-digit favorite, they’ve covered six — an excellent 75%.
The Panthers have hit gone 11-7-3 in terms of over/under on the season. They’re 7-3-2 at home including four of their last six outings having gone over.
Virginia vs. Pittsburgh CSN Power Rankings Line
Our metrics system has Pittsburgh favored by only a half less more than the Sportsbook, indicating that Vegas has it spot on. We got there due to the fact that Pitt is slotted at No. 33 in our power rankings, while Virginia is 62 spots lower at No. 95.
While there doesn’t seem to be an advantage with the line from our data, it further strengthens the idea that the Panthers are a heavy favorite.
Prediction for Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
The abrupt, immediate retirement of Virginia’s Tony Bennett left the Cavaliers in a very tough position. Accordingly, they’ve had a disappointing 2024-25 campaign under the leadership of the interim head coach Sanchez.
They’ve managed only three wins in ACC conference play — each coming against the three teams below them in the standings: the NC State Wolfpack, Miami Hurricanes, and Boston College Eagles.
Pittsburgh has had a more stable head coach in Jeff Capel, who’s coaching his seventh season as the Panthers head man, but the season has been a roller coaster all the same.
They began the season on a six-game winning streak, then built another five-game winning streak heading into the New Year before losing four-straight in conference play. They rebounded by winning two in a row before losing by two points in their last outing.
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The question remains: will Pittsburgh begin another winning streak, starting with a victory over the Cavaliers, or let the momentum of a previous loss drag them into another losing streak?
While momentum is hard to quantify, I still trust that Capel will have his squad ready to go come Monday night. My expectation is that the Panthers will cover — or, at the very least push, as they have an amazing three times this season — the -13.
Although the Cavaliers have played better lately, all their games in the past two weeks have come against teams with under .500 records in the ACC. They’ve only won two of those matchups, and those two teams have a combined three conference wins.
All signs point toward the over being the correct bet — five straight have gone that way for Virginia while four of six have hit that mark for Pittsburgh. The listed total being only 132 points is suspiciously low, but we’ll follow the research: take the over.
A long shot bet with great odds is Pittsburgh to win by 11-15 points at +290. The Panthers already have four such wins this season within that margin, and with our metrics line being right in the middle of that, it’d be worth taking a little risk here.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 77, Virginia 63
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