The NCAA Tournament is here, and the No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) are looking to make a deep run in the East Region. However, they must first get past the No. 10 seed Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12), a team that has overperformed under first-year head coach Mark Byington.
Vanderbilt is hungry to make a statement after a shaky finish to the regular season, while Saint Mary’s aims to bounce back from a disappointing loss in the West Coast Conference title game against Gonzaga. With contrasting styles of play, this first-round matchup could come down to whether the Gaels’ elite defense can slow down Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense.
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s Betting Preview
All Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Wednesday, March 20, 2025.
- Spread: Saint Mary’s -4.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +155, Saint Mary’s -190
- Over/Under: 135.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, 3:15 p.m. EST
- Location: Rocket Arena | City, State
- How to Watch: truTV
Saint Mary’s enters the matchup as a 4.5-point favorite, which reflects their strong defensive identity. The Gaels allow just 60.7 points per game, ranking fifth in the nation, while Vanderbilt relies on an offense that averages 79.6 points per game. The Commodores have struggled against the spread as underdogs of 4.5 points or more, posting a 3-6 record in those situations. Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s is 10-15 against the spread when favored by 4.5 or more. With a total set at 135.5, bettors must decide if Saint Mary’s grinding pace will prevail or if Vanderbilt’s scoring ability will push the game over the total.
Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s predictive analytics model, Saint Mary’s has a 68% of winning this matchup, compared to Vanderbilt’s 32% probability. This aligns with the oddsmakers’ lines but suggests slightly more confidence in the Gaels’ ability to control the game’s tempo. While Vegas projects a close contest, CSN’s numbers lean toward Saint Mary’s holding firm as the superior team. However, if Vanderbilt can dictate a faster pace and knock down perimeter shots, an upset is certainly in play.
Prediction for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s
This game will come down to whether Saint Mary’s can impose its defensive identity or if Vanderbilt can break through with its scoring depth. The Gaels have been elite at controlling the tempo and limiting easy baskets, but they must find consistent offense outside of their star players.
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Despite entering the tournament on a three-game losing streak, Vanderbilt has the offensive firepower to challenge Saint Mary’s methodical approach. If Byington’s squad can get out in transition and force the Gaels into a higher-scoring affair, the Commodores will have a real shot.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 74, Vanderbilt 67
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