The UCLA Bruins (23-10) take on the Tennessee Volunteers (28-7) in a high-stakes second-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament. UCLA cruised past Utah State in the first round, dismantling the Aggies 72-47 with stellar defense and efficient scoring. Meanwhile, Tennessee had little trouble dispatching Wofford, winning 77-62. A trip to the Sweet 16 is on the line, and both teams are eager to prove they belong among the tournament’s elite.
UCLA enters as the underdog but has been playing strong defense down the stretch, allowing just 67.1 points per game in its last 10 contests. On the other hand, Tennessee has been inconsistent against the spread, covering just three times in its last 10 games. Will the Bruins’ disciplined defense be enough to contain the high-powered Volunteers?
UCLA vs. Tennessee Betting Preview
All UCLA vs. Tennessee odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 22, 2025.
Spread: Tennessee -4.5
Moneyline: UCLA +170, Tennessee -210
Over/Under: 132.5 points
Game Time: Saturday, March 22, 2025 | 9:40 p.m. EST
Location: Rupp Arena | Lexington, KY
How To Watch: TBS / truTV
Tennessee is favored by 4.5 points, a margin that reflects their overall dominance throughout the season. The Volunteers have a 20-2 record when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -198 or shorter, winning 90.9% of those games. However, Tennessee’s struggles against the spread (3-7 in their last 10) raise concerns about their ability to cover.
The total for this matchup is set at 132.5 points, a line that seems conservative given that these teams combine for an average of 149.5 points per game. UCLA has seen games exceed this total 18 times this season, making the over an enticing bet.
UCLA vs. Tennessee CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s advanced metrics, Tennessee has a 67% chance of winning, aligning closely with their status as a 4.5-point favorite. This probability suggests that while the Volunteers are expected to win, UCLA can pull off an upset. The Bruins have been the underdog eight times this season and have won three of those games, proving they can thrive in this role.
Prediction for UCLA vs. Tennessee
This matchup will come down to tempo and defense. Tennessee boasts a balanced scoring attack, led by their efficient shooting (46.8% from the field over their last 10 games). However, UCLA’s defense has been rock solid, allowing just 67.1 points per game in that same stretch. If the Bruins can control the pace and limit Tennessee’s transition opportunities, they have a shot at keeping this one close.
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While Tennessee has the edge in talent and depth, their recent struggles against the spread cannot be ignored. UCLA’s ability to slow the game down and capitalize on defensive stops gives them a strong chance to cover the 4.5-point spread, even if they fall short on the scoreboard.
Prediction: Tennessee 70, UCLA 66
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