The NCAA Tournament has delivered thrilling matchups. However, it may have lacked that Cinderella feel a bit. The closest thing to a major upset came when Arkansas stunned the nation with their victory over No. 2 St. John’s.
Now, No. 3 seed Texas Tech faces No. 10 seed Arkansas in the Sweet 16 matchup. The Red Raiders have shown they can adapt to different playing styles, while the Razorbacks rely on getting to the free-throw line. As these teams meet in the tournament for the second time in five years, expect a potentially classic showdown at Chase Center in San Francisco.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Betting Preview
All Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, March 25, 2025.
- Spread
Texas Tech -5.5 - Moneyline
Texas Tech -250| Arkansas +205 - Over/Under
148.5 points - Game Time
Thursday, March 27, 2025 | 10:09 p.m. ET - Location
Chase Center | San Francisco, CA - How To Watch
TBS/TruTV
Texas Tech enters as a 5.5-point favorite and has an 85% win rate when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -250 or shorter. Arkansas, meanwhile, has pulled off upsets this tournament and has covered the spread in 16 of 35 games this season.
With a total set at 146.5 points, the matchup could exceed that mark given Arkansas’ pace and Texas Tech’s offensive efficiency.
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas CSN Winning Probability
- Texas Tech: 71.4%
- Arkansas: 32.8%
CSN’s implied win probability supports Texas Tech as the favorite, aligning with the betting odds. Still, Arkansas has already defied expectations twice in this tournament. Their physical play and aggressive drives to the rim could keep them competitive despite inconsistent three-point shooting.
Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Arkansas
The key storyline centers on JT Toppin. The Red Raiders are 0-3 when he scores fewer than 20 points in the last eight games, making him a primary focus for Arkansas’ defense. If the Razorbacks limit his production, their upset chances improve.
Texas Tech’s offensive efficiency—ranked No. 5 nationally by KenPom—and Arkansas’ streaky perimeter shooting highlight the contrasting styles. The Razorbacks must score through relentless attacks and free throws, while the Red Raiders aim to win with superior shooting and ball movement.
KEEP READING: March Madness Fun Facts: Surprising Stats and Records You Need To Know
Ultimately, Texas Tech’s balance and adaptability make them the safer pick. While Arkansas has been a Cinderella story, the Red Raiders have the tools to advance to the Elite Eight.
Prediction: Texas Tech 82, Arkansas 79
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
