The Elite Eight is officially set, and all eyes will be on the defensive showdown between the No. 1 seed Houston Cougars (33-4) and the No. 2 seed Tennessee Volunteers (30-7). Both teams have built their success on a robust defense, making this matchup a battle of physicality and endurance.
Houston leads the nation in scoring defense, while Tennessee boasts the best field goal percentage defense in college basketball. The winner of this clash earns a ticket to the Final Four to face either Alabama or Duke, both of which bring high-powered offenses.
Tennessee vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 29, 2025.
- Spread: Houston -4.5 (-110), Tennessee +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Houston -225, Tennessee +185
- Over/Under: 120.5 (-110)
- Game Time: Sunday, March 30, 2:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, IN
- How to Watch: CBS
The oddsmakers have Houston as a 4.5-point favorite in this defensive battle, with the total set at a tournament-low 120.5. This is no surprise, given that both teams are elite in preventing opponents from scoring. Houston doesn’t shoot a high volume of three-pointers, but it is the most efficient team in the nation when it does, knocking them down at a deadly rate. Meanwhile, Tennessee ranks third in three-point defense and has the quickness to contest shots on the perimeter.
Tennessee’s offense has been inconsistent this season, especially from deep. Four of the Volunteers’ seven losses have come when they shot under 25% from beyond the arc. The Cougars will have the upper hand if Houston’s defense forces them into rugged looks.
Tennessee vs. Houston CSN Winning Probability
- Houston: 58%
- Tennessee: 42%
According to the CSN model, Houston has a 58% chance to win this game, aligning closely with the odds in Vegas. The Cougars’ efficiency on both ends of the floor makes them a slight favorite, but Tennessee’s ability to grind out tough wins means this is far from a guaranteed outcome.
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Prediction for Tennessee vs. Houston
This game will be a war of determination; every possession will be valuable. Houston’s ability to knock down shots at a high rate could be the deciding factor, as Tennessee’s defense is not entirely impenetrable. The Volunteers have allowed opponents to shoot over 41.8% from the field in 15 games this season, losing five matchups.
Tennessee has the talent to make this a battle, mainly if Zakai Zeigler replicates his Sweet 16 performance, where he posted 18 points and 10 assists in a win over Kentucky. However, Houston’s relentless physicality and ability to wear down offenses will likely give the Cougars the edge down the stretch. If the Cougars can maintain their shooting efficiency (31-1 when shooting 42% or better), they should be able to book their spot in the Final Four.
Prediction: Houston 64, Tennessee 58
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