The Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers will clash in the Sweet 16 of the 2025 NCAA Tournament in what promises to be an intense battle between SEC rivals. The Wildcats have already taken down Tennessee twice this season and will be looking to complete the season sweep when it matters most.
For head coach Mark Pope and the Wildcats, this game represents a chance to prove that their regular-season dominance over the Vols was no fluke.
On the other hand, Tennessee will be eager to finally get the better of their conference foe and advance to the Elite Eight. With a spread of -4.5 in favor of Tennessee, bettors will have a tough decision to make as these two teams prepare for a high-stakes showdown.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of March 28, 2025.
- Spread: Tennessee -4.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee -192, Kentucky +160
- Over/Under: 146.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025 | 7:39 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium | Indianapolis, Indiana
- How to Watch: TBS
Tennessee enters this game as the slight favorite, boasting a 29-7 overall record and a 12-6 mark in SEC play. The Volunteers have been solid against the spread (ATS) this season, posting an 18-17 record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has been an underdog 12 times this season, winning seven of those contests outright.
The Wildcats have been one of the best teams in the country at hitting the over, with their games surpassing the 146.5-point mark 26 times this season. Given both teams’ offensive capabilities, the total could be in play for those looking at the over/under market.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky CSN Winning Probability
- Tennessee: 66.4% implied probability
- Kentucky: 37.9% implied probability
Tennessee’s moneyline odds suggest that they have a 66.4% chance of securing a victory in this Sweet 16 battle, whereas Kentucky’s implied probability sits at 37.9%. While sportsbooks favor the Vols, Kentucky’s recent success against Tennessee this season could make them a dangerous underdog.
If the Wildcats can continue their dominance over the Volunteers, they could defy the odds and punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
Prediction for Tennessee vs. Kentucky
This game will likely come down to whether Kentucky’s high-powered offense can crack Tennessee’s tough defense. The Wildcats, led by Oweh Otega and a healthy Lamont Butler, have had Tennessee’s number this season. However, Tennessee’s defense ranks among the best in the nation, and their ability to lock down opponents could be the difference-maker.
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Kentucky’s experience and offensive firepower make them a real threat, but Tennessee’s defensive efficiency and motivation to avoid a third straight loss to the Wildcats give them an edge. Expect this game to be a hard-fought battle, but Tennessee’s defensive adjustments and overall talent should help them secure a narrow victory.
Prediction: Tennessee 78, Kentucky 75
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