The Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators have each won two games on their way to meeting in the SEC Tournament championship, with the winner having a legitimate shot at claiming a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
They split their two matchups this season, with Tennessee winning by 30 points in the first game and losing by 20 in the second. Something will have to give; will the No. 4 Gators or No. 8 Volunteers come out with a win?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Tennessee vs. Florida Betting Preview
All Tennessee vs. Florida odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, March 16, 2025.
- Spread
Florida -4.5 - Moneyline
Florida -210, Florida +175 - Over/Under
142.5 Points - Game Time
Sunday, March 16, 1:00 p.m. ET - Location
Bridgestone Arena | Nashville, TN - How To Watch
ESPN
Tennessee comes in with an 18-15 record ATS, but has gone only 9-11 ATS in conference play. However, they’ve covered each of their two SEC Tournament matchups.
Florida has been one of the best teams in the country in terms of covering, with a 25-8 overall record ATS. They’ve covered 75% of their conference matchups, including each of their last five.
A terrific defensive team, the Volunteers have gone under the point total in 19 of their 33 games this season — but have gone over in three of their last four games.
Meanwhile, the Gators have gone over in 16 of their 33 games and each of their last six outings.
Tennessee vs. Florida Preview
Tennessee enters with a 27-6 overall record and has gone 14-6 in conference matchups, including the SEC Tournament. Head coach Rick Barnes’s squad is known for their defense, allowing only 62.3 ppg.
In their 70-65 victory over the top-seeded Auburn Tigers in the semifinals, the Volunteers held the Tigers nearly 20 points below their season average while point guard Zakai Ziegler led the offensive attack.
The Gators hold a 29-4 overall and 16-4 SEC record and reached the title game after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in blowout fashion in the semifinals. Florida’s defense has been solid this season, but it’s their offense that has driven their current five-game winning streak, as they’ve averaged 95.4 ppg during that span.
Their trio of high-scoring guards — Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard — are the catalysts of the offense, with each scoring over 13 ppg. Clayton is the go-to scorer, having averaged 21.3 ppg in his last four outings.
Against the Tide, Martin and Richard combined to score 32 points on 10 of 15 shooting, making the most of their opportunities.
Sophomore forward Alex Condon has been a glue-guy for the Gators, averaging 11.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 2.3 apg. His versatility has been on full display, especially as of late, highlighted by his 25-point performance in the final regular-season meeting with Alabama.
Ziegler is the leader on both ends of the floor for the Volunteers, scoring 13.3 ppg and dishing out 7.4 apg while being awarded the SEC Defensive Player of the Year each of the last two seasons. He scored a team-high 20 points against the Tigers with multiple key buckets.
Fellow guard Chaz Lanier has provided a much-needed scoring punch for this defensive-minded squad, scoring a team-leading 18.1 ppg on 43.7% shooting from the field.
Senior forward Igor Milicic plays a similar role to Condon, scoring in double figures and leading the team in rebounds, while being especially versatile at 6’10”.
The Volunteers excel defensively, while the Gators are superior on the offensive end of the floor. With a top seed in the NCAA Tournament potentially on the line, it’ll be intriguing to see who can seize the moment and become the champion of one of the most competitive conferences in recent memory.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
Although both of their regular-season matchups went far under the listed point total of 142.5 points, it’s extremely hard to see a game with this current Florida squad not reaching that mark.
Less than 24 hours before this game will take place, they’ll have gone across the century mark — now, the expectation in Vegas is that they’ll score in the low-to-mid 70s.
I’d be willing to bet that that won’t happen. Take the over, simply due to Florida’s tremendous run as of late on that end of the floor.
KEEP READING: Walter Clayton Jr. Becomes Florida’s First-Ever First-Team All-American
In terms of the spread, the Gators being favored by 4.5 points is likely because of their consistent ability to beat the best teams in the league. Tennessee has their fair share of huge victories, but Florida has defeated every single SEC power.
Tennessee will come in confident and expecting to win — but unfortunately for them, the Gators are playing as well as any team in the country right now.
I’d take the Gators to cover that spread, but not by much. That number does allow late game free throws to potentially be the difference, however, and that’s why I like them to cover and become SEC champions and have a good chance of being named a top seed in the NCAA Tournament, announced Sunday evening.
Picks: Over 142.5 Points, Florida -4.5
Prediction: Florida 79, Tennessee 73
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