The No. 23 Saint Mary’s Gaels will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Loyola Marymount Lions Thursday night. Having already locked up the WCC regular-season championship— their second in a row—the Gaels will aim to add a 26th win, further strengthening their resume ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
This is the second meeting between these teams—Saint Mary’s won the first matchup by 25 points back in January. Can the Lions avenge that loss and give their home fans one final win on Senior Night, or will the Gaels continue their WCC dominance?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Saint Mary’s vs. Loyola Marymount Betting Preview
All Saint Mary odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025.
- Spread
Saint Mary’s -13.5 - Moneyline
Saint Mary’s -1100, Loyola Marymount +680 - Over/Under
132.5 Points - Game Time
Thursday, Feb. 27, 11:00 p.m. ET - Location
Gersten Pavilion | Los Angeles, CA - How To Watch
CBSSN
The Gaels enter with a middling 14-14 overall record ATS but have covered 11 of 16 games in conference play. On the road, they’ve compiled a 7-2 record ATS.
Loyola Marymount is 12-16 ATS this season, including only 7-10 ATS in WCC matchups. At home, they’ve also covered seven of 15 home games.
In terms of over/under, Saint Mary’s defense has carried a majority of their games under the point total. Only 11 games have gone over, and only five in conference play. The under has been the successful play, especially as of late; of their past 11 games, nine have gone under.
The Lions have gone over in 13 of their 29 games this season. However, they’ve reached that mark at a slightly higher rate in the conference, with nine of 17 games going over. The over has been the correct play in three of their last four outings.
Saint Mary’s vs. Loyola Marymount CSN Power Rankings Line
The line of Saint Mary’s -13.5—although high—may be even higher if it were based on where these teams rank in our power rankings.
Saint Mary’s is at No. 45, while Loyola Marymount is at No. 169. The Gaels likely have the advantage.
Preview for Saint Mary’s vs. Loyola Marymount
The first matchup between the Gaels and Lions resulted in an 81-56 Saint Mary’s victory. Although Loyola Marymount’s leading scorer, Caleb Stone-Carrawell, had a good game with 16 points, they couldn’t stop Saint Mary’s point guard Augustus Marciulionis.
That’s been a problem for the entire WCC, as he’s a prime candidate to be named conference player of the year as the best player on the best team. He’s averaging 14.2 ppg and 6.2 apg, both team-highs. The senior’s ability to dictate the pace of the game has been on display all season.
Second-leading scorer Paulius Murauskas adds in 12.8 ppg and leads the team with 8.1 rpg. Assisting him down low is senior center Mitchell Saxon, who’s been a staple of the Saint Mary’s front line the past four seasons.
Outside of Stone-Carrawell, who pours in 13.5 ppg, 6’11” junior forward Jevon Porter also can score in a myriad of ways. He has 14 games with multiple made three-pointers, along with grabbing a team-high 7.4 rpg.
Two more starters, Will Johnston and Alex Merkviladze, score in double figures, giving the Lions a solid group of scorers.
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However, their lack of high-end scoring has been a problem all season long combined with below-average defense. They hold a 16-13 overall record and have gone 8-9 in WCC play, good for sixth place.
Saint Mary’s, meanwhile, led by Marciulionis, has already clinched the WCC regular-season title after going 15-1 in the conference and 25-4 overall.
This will be the Lions’ final game of the season. With emotions running high, it’ll be intriguing to see if they can keep it competitive against the Gaels, who are flying high, having won five games in a row.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The over/under total of 132.5 points is due to Saint Mary’s slow-paced nature and LMU’s inability to score at a high level. Considering the spread, the projected final score is 73-60.
However, the Gaels’ scoring 81 points in their last meeting was enough for them to surpass that mark despite the Lions only managing 56 points.
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Vegas knows that Saint Mary’s has gone under in nine of its last eleven outings, so it’s sure to make the line as low as possible.
In their last four games, the Gaels have averaged 75.8 ppg. Against a below-average Lions defense, they should match or exceed that mark.
Meanwhile, three of Loyola Marymount’s last four games have gone over, including their last outing in which they put up a season-high 93 points (excluding their season-opener against a non-Division 1 opponent).
Hence why we’ll take the over of 132.5 points, a solid bet for even odds.
In terms of the spread, this one wasn’t close the last time they met. And while the numbers may suggest it won’t be close once again, I’d be willing to predict that the Lions’ competitive nature will show in front of their home court.
They’ll keep it close and cover the -13.5 spread but ultimately fall to the first place Gaels.
Picks: Over 132.5 Points, Loyola Marymount +13.5
Prediction: Saint Mary’s 76, Loyola Marymount 69
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