The No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5) and No. 2 seed Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8) clash in a highly anticipated second-round matchup in the South Region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Alabama’s explosive offense faces a disciplined Saint Mary’s defense that thrives on limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. With both teams aiming for a Sweet 16 berth, this game presents a fascinating contrast of styles. Can the Gaels slow down Alabama’s high-tempo attack, or will the Crimson Tide overwhelm Saint Mary’s with their offensive firepower?
Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama Betting Preview
All Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread: Alabama -5.5
- Moneyline: Saint Mary’s +195 | Alabama -235
- Over/Under: 147.5 points
- Game Time: Sunday, March 23, 2025, at 6:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Rocket Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
- How to Watch: TNT
Alabama enters the game as a 5.5-point favorite, reflecting their superior offensive capabilities. However, recent trends suggest Saint Mary’s could keep this game close. The Gaels have won 9 of their last 10 games, and while they are just 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in that span, their defensive efficiency makes them a strong underdog play. On the other hand, Alabama struggled in their first-round matchup against Robert Morris, failing to cover a 21.5-point spread and winning by only 9. The Crimson Tide’s defense has also been suspect, which could allow Saint Mary’s to stay within striking distance.
Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama CSN Winning Probability
- CSN Winning Probability: Alabama 68%, Saint Mary’s 32%
The Crimson Tide are given a strong chance of advancing, aligning with their status as favorites. However, the 32% probability for Saint Mary’s is notable, considering Alabama’s inconsistency. The Gaels’ disciplined approach and ability to slow the pace contrast sharply with Alabama’s preferred up-tempo style. If Saint Mary’s can control the tempo and limit second-chance opportunities, their chances of an upset could increase significantly.
Prediction for Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama
This matchup boils down to Alabama’s offensive explosiveness versus Saint Mary’s defensive discipline. The Gaels excel at forcing opponents into inefficient shots, and their ability to rebound and defend the perimeter could make this game tighter than the spread suggests. However, Alabama’s athleticism and physicality, especially their ability to get to the free-throw line, could be the deciding factor.
Alabama ranks in the top 50 in free-throw rate, while Saint Mary’s is one of the most disciplined teams in the country, ranking in the top 20 in opponent free-throw rate. This battle at the charity stripe could be a major swing point. Additionally, the Gaels lack depth, ranking near the bottom in bench minutes, which could become an issue against Alabama’s deep rotation.
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While Saint Mary’s has the defensive tools to keep this competitive, Alabama’s firepower and ability to generate extra possessions should propel them to victory in the closing minutes.
Prediction: Alabama 78, Saint Mary’s 72
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