The No. 13 Purdue Boilermakers will visit the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night in a matchup featuring the Big Ten’s third- and second-ranked teams, respectively.
If the Spartans can come out on top, they’ll reach within a half-game of the lead in the Big Ten. Conversely, the Boilermakers can tie and leap ahead of Michigan State for the second spot in the standings due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Which team will have the upper hand in this highly-anticipated meeting?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Purdue vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Arizona vs. Baylor odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan State -3.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -164, Purdue +136 - Over/Under
148.5 points - Game Time
Tuesday, Feb. 18, 7:00 p.m. ET - Location
Breslin Center | East Lansing, MI - How To Watch
Peacock
Purdue enters with a 19-7 overall and 11-4 conference record, currently sitting in third place in the Big Ten. They’ve been good at covering the spread this year, going 15-11 ATS. They’ve been even better in conference play, covering 11 of 15 games.
The Boilermakers are a solid scoring team and tend to exceed the listed total—16 of their 26 games this season have gone over, including 11 of 15 in conference play. In fact, the over has been a successful bet in six of their past seven outings.
The Spartans have already reached 20 wins this season to only five losses, with a conference record of 11-3, slotting them in second place in the Big Ten. They hold a 15-9-1 record ATS, with an even better 9-4-1 record in the Big Ten ATS. However, they’ve only covered two of their last five games.
Michigan State is a very disciplined defensive team, and that’s reflected in its over/under track record. 16 of the 25 games on the season have gone under the point total, with five of 14 in conference play also going under. That’s been the correct bet in five of their past six matchups.
Purdue vs. Michigan State CSN Power Rankings Line
Where these two teams sit in our power rankings may suggest that Michigan State -3.5 is a bit too high. While the Spartans sit at No. 29, up two spots from last week, the Boilermakers round out the top five at No. 5.
If it were up to our power rankings, the line may be closer to a pick’em if not for Purdue being favored.
Preview for Purdue vs. Michigan State
Despite being ranked No. 13 nationally, Purdue has dropped their past two games. They’ll be looking to get back in the win column and overtake the second spot in the conference standings, but it’ll be a difficult task against this balanced Michigan State team.
While senior Spartans guard Jaden Akins is the leading scorer at 13.2 ppg, freshman and fellow guard Jase Richardson packs the most punch scoring-wise, especially recently.
Over his last three outings, Jase, the son of former NBA veteran Jason Richardson, is averaging 17.6 ppg while shooting 54.2% from the field. When he aggressively attacks the rim, his athleticism elevates the Spartans to a different level.
Junior forward Jaxon Kohler hauls in a team-leading 7.8 rpg and adds 8.2 ppg. He was the scoring leader in Michigan State’s game, scoring 23 points on nine of 13 shooting.
Overall, seven Spartans average over seven points a night.
The Boilermakers, on the other hand, are led by a trio of top players.
Despite being second on the team in scoring, junior point guard Braden Smith is the head of the snake on the scouting report. At only 6′ tall, Smith fills up the stat sheet, pouring in 16.0 ppg, grabbing 4.7 rpg, and contributing 8.8 apg — ranking second in college basketball.
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Junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn has upped his scoring average from 6.4 ppg a season ago to a team-leading 19.4 ppg on a terrific 60.9% shooting from the field. Also a junior, guard Fletcher Loyer has been a Boilermaker staple for the past three seasons. He stretches the defense, averaging 13.9 ppg on 45.3% shooting beyond the arc.
Both these squads are very similar in terms of points scored and points allowed. All signs point towards this being an extremely competitive game.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
Despite the Boilermakers going over the point total in six of their last seven games, I expect the Spartans to slow the pace at home, with this game going under the total of 148.5 points.
Smith and Kaufman-Renn will do their thing, but ultimately, the Spartans’ team defense will win. They give up 67.5 ppg, a top-50 mark in the country.
With Richardson’s continued dynamic scoring and the steady contributions from their slew of solid scorers, I expect the Spartans to come out on top. However, I don’t love the spread of -3.5, which is often right on the line of a bad beat in a predictably tight game.
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But on the other hand, Michigan State could extend the lead late with their terrific free-throw shooting ability. They rank fourth in the nation as a team, converting on 80.6% of their free-throw attempts.
Therefore, we’ll take the Spartans -3.5, pulling it out at home over the visiting Boilermakers.
Picks: Under 148.5 points, Michigan State -3.5
Prediction: Michigan State 74, Purdue 69
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