The No. 5 seed North Carolina Tar Heels and No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils will battle in the ACC Tournament semifinals on Friday in their third matchup of the season—but this one should be a little different.
Star freshman Cooper Flagg rolled his ankle in the quarterfinals win over No. 8 seed Georgia Tech, making his availability for this game a “real long shot,” according to head coach Jon Scheyer. Flagg’s absence could allow the Tar Heels to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament with a win. Will they be able to do it?
North Carolina vs. Duke Betting Preview
All North Carolina vs. Duke odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 14, 2025.
- Spread
Duke -7.5 - Moneyline
Duke -345, North Carolina +270 - Over/Under
154.5 Points - Game Time
Friday, March 14, 7:00 p.m. ET - Location
Spectrum Center | Charlotte, NC - How To Watch
ESPN
North Carolina comes in with a 14-19-1 record ATS, including 9-12-1 ATS in ACC play. However, they’ve covered both of their wins in the conference tournament, both as the favorites.
Duke has been excellent in terms of covering, with a 21-11 overall record ATS. They’ve covered 66% of their conference matchups yet failed to cover against Georgia Tech, only winning by eight points.
The Tar Heels are a team that scores well and gives up well. Yet Vegas has seemingly figured them out, as only nine of their 22 conference games have gone over, and the under has been the correct play in each of their last three games.
Meanwhile, Duke began the season with a propensity for going under, but they’ve now gone over the point total in seven of their last eight games.
North Carolina vs. Duke Preview
North Carolina enters this game with a 22-12 overall and 15-7 conference record (including ACC Tournament games).
They’re considered to be right on the bubble of making the NCAA Tournament after making a late-season push, having won eight of their last nine games—with the lone loss coming to these Blue Devils.
A UNC win would likely secure their ticket to the NCAA Tournament and put them 40 minutes away from earning an automatic bid by winning the ACC Tournament championship.
Duke (29-3, 20-1 ACC) had seemingly cemented itself as a No. 1 seed in March Madness and the leading candidate for the top overall seed in the tournament.
But with Flagg’s injury, that’s come into question. A loss in this game and the conference tournament championship from other teams just below Duke could spell doom for the Blue Devils and drop them to a No. 2 seed.
Regardless, they have a solid squad even in the absence of their superstar freshman—the team wouldn’t be ranked No. 1 in the country if it didn’t have a good supporting cast.
Without the presence of Flagg, fellow freshman Kon Knueppel, known as a sweet-shooting player on the perimeter, will be tasked with being more aggressive in regards to putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot.
He averages 13.7 ppg and has shown improvement in those areas as the season has gone along—but now he’ll have to show it with a defense focused toward him. He adjusted well once Flagg left the game on Thursday, scoring a game-high 28 points on seven of 14 shooting from the field and 12 of 13 from the free throw line.
Other players who will have to step up are guards Tyrese Proctor and Sion James. Against the Yellow Jackets, they combined to score 13 points on five of 18 shooting—another performance like that could prove to be a death wish against a Tar Heels squad that has explosive offensive capabilities.
North Carolina is led by fifth-year senior R.J. Davis, who scores a team-high 17.1 ppg. He scored a team-high 23 points against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Thursday while his teammates combined for just 45 points.
He’ll need more help, namely from guards Ian Jackson and Eliot Cadeau, who combined to score only 11 points. Jackson averages 13.0 ppg but has seen his minutes decrease since he’s been moved to the bench.
Over his last three games, he’s scored a combined 15 points. It’ll be interesting to see if head coach Hubert Davis will employ Jackson more, as he raises the ceiling of the teams’ offense.
Aside from being bitter rivals, these two teams are very familiar with each other because they played less than a week ago in the final regular-season game of the season. Although UNC showed fight on their home floor, Flagg helped close out an 82-69 Blue Devil win. Duke also won 87-70 at home earlier in the season.
This matchup will be much different, however.
With the expected absence of Flagg, Duke will have to change their play-style greatly. No longer will they be able to play through their 6’9″ forward, who averages a team-high 4.2 apg. They adapted well to come back from an early deficit to beat Georgia Tech—but the Tar Heels, especially as of late, are a much team and will pose a far greater threat.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The previous matchups between these two teams would suggest that the over/under total would be rather high. Well, it certainly is, at 154.5 points.
That number seems to reflect much more on their last meetings—but since Flagg likely won’t be available, why does Vegas expect Duke to be in the high 70s to the low 80s and UNC to similarly be in the low70s?
I just can’t wrap my head around how this game goes over that number.
Duke will have to change their play style—whichever way they go could determine if Vegas is correct with the rather high number. Instead, I think Scheyer will slow the game down into a grind-it-out atmosphere, using their defense to slowly suffocate UNC. No longer will Flagg be there for fast-break run-outs and jams.
WHO ELSE IS PLAYING FRIDAY? Must-Watch College Basketball Games Today
This has the feel of a game with the winning team scoring in the low-to-mid 70s instead of what the sports books may suggest. Take the under of 154.5 points.
The line is set at Duke -7.5, which absolutely reflects Flagg not playing—if he were, this number would surely be in the teens. Without him, it sets the scene for a matchup often seen in conference tournaments: who wins, desperation or the better team? Who wants it more?
I’d be willing to bet that the Tar Heels want this game more—but that Duke will be slightly better and pull it out at the end.
For those reasons, I like North Carolina to cover that spread, but Knueppel to have another good game and make some shots down the stretch to pull out a victory for the Blue Devils. The Blue Devils will then play the winner of Louisville-Clemson in the ACC Championship game on Saturday night.
Picks: Under 155.5 Points, North Carolina +7.5
Prediction: Duke 76, North Carolina 71
College Sports Network has you covered with the latest news, analysis, insights, and trending stories in football, basketball, and more!
