Are you not entertained? March Madness never fails to deliver, and it’s possible that the best is yet to come. The Sweet 16 starts on Thursday, but why wait until then to take stances on what projects to be an amazing eight-game slate?
While the madness was “lacking” in the first two rounds, this 16-team field features only one team seeded lower than No. 6, setting up a highly competitive round.
Sweet 16 Schedule
All times are Eastern.
Thurs., March 27
- No. 6 seed BYU vs. No. 2 seed Alabama | 7:09 p.m. | CBS
- No. 4 seed Maryland vs. No. 1 seed Florida | 7:39 p.m. | TBS/truTV
- No. 4 seed Arizona vs. No. 1 seed Duke | 9:39 p.m. | CBS
- No. 10 seed Arkansas vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech | 10:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV
Fri., March 28
- No. 6 seed Ole Miss vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State | 7:09 p.m. | CBS
- No. 3 seed Kentucky vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee | 7:39 p.m. | TBS/truTV
- No. 5 seed Michigan vs. No. 1 seed Auburn | 9:39 p.m. | CBS
- No. 4 seed Purdue vs. No. 1 seed Houston | 10:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV
March Madness Sweet 16 Advance Rates
It’s probably been a minute since you gave an ounce of thought to Fort Minor. Yes, the alternative hip-hop band in the early 2000s had their moment in the sun.
- 10% Luck
- 20% Skill
- 15% Concentrated Power of Will
- 5% Pleasure
- 50% Pain
It slaps. I don’t care who you are—if you were of a certain age when that song was released in 2005, you had it on your iPod shuffle and attended a basketball game with that song blaring during pregame warmups.
Were they a one-hit wonder or simply leaving breadcrumbs as to how to properly navigate March Madness?
- 10% chuck (3’s)
- 20% thrill
- 15% building a profile that fits the bill
- 5% measure
- 50% brain
For there to be a 100% chance we will remember your team’s name, they will have to build upon what they’ve shown through two games in this tournament and string together four more wins.
March Madness Sweet 16 Insights
South Region
The top half of this region presents an interesting matchup—Michigan’s twin towers against a Player of the Year candidate in Johni Broome. While that narrative will drive much of the discussion nationally over the next few days, two very specific statistical differences will impact the outcome more directly.
Rankings (out of 68 tournament teams)
- -Michigan: 59th in assist-to-turnover
-Auburn: 3rd in assist-to-turnover - -Michigan: 15th in opponent free throw rate
-Auburn: 67th in opponent free throw rate
The ability to defend without fouling is likely what will propel the Wolverines to a Final Four run if they were to surprise the nation this week. They’ve attempted 17 more free throws than their opponents through two rounds, and if they can continue to present matchup problems, they’ll do more than cover the spread against the tournament’s top seed,
Michigan has been a team of spurts thus far (+14 points in the first half of Round 1 and +16 in the second half of Round 2), and that comes with a wide range of outcomes. I weigh the negative side of that equation heavier as the talent of the opposition rises.
The Tigers, on the other hand, have underachieved up to this point and could well regress in a strong direction. Their assist-to-turnover rate is 19.3% lower through two games than it was during the regular season, something that figures to correct with time.
When it comes to the free throw line – they still foul too much, but they are offsetting that with offensive aggression (+21 FTA thus far, and that’s a reasonable solution.
The remaining teams in this region not named Michigan also get a little foul-happy, which is why Auburn is rightfully labeled as the favorite to emerge. In my rankings, their most difficult matchup between now and the Final Four is Michigan—I’m picking them to win on Friday, but I’m not giving them 7.5 points.
Sean Pedulla has scored over 1,700 points at the collegiate level, and his experience has been on full display through two games for upstart Ole Miss. Not only has he scored 20 points in both games, he’s played at his own pace – 11 FTA across those two games and an impressive eight-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio against Iowa State.
That said, their statistical profile from Sunday night was more on the fortunate side that I am comfortable with when it comes to projecting them to take another step forward.
The Rebels shot great from deep (11-of-19, 57.9%), and that’s a great tool to have, but they were outrebounded and only put in a position to win due to the Cyclones’ poor passing performance (nine assists against 15 turnovers).
Of course, the opposing defense factors into that, but both Michigan State and Auburn, their two most likely remaining opponents in this region, easily rank inside the top quarter of the field in passing acumen, making such an edge unlikely to reoccur.
Anything can happen when the long shots are falling, but if their conversion rate from deep regresses and their handsy defensive ways result in a parade to the free throw line, I don’t think they sniff a cover in this contest (2-3-point spread, depending on where you look).
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If I don’t like them to cover, that means Tom Izzo and Sparty are in a good spot to move on.
They’ve won their two games thus far without much from star Jace Richardson (6-21 FG) in terms of scoring, but with him turning the ball over just one time in his 60 minutes, the freshman has shown a level of maturity that needs to be acknowledged, understanding that he is a gifted scorer who will iron out the shooting woes.
Michigan State entered tournament play ranked 60th of 68 teams in effective field goal percentage, a flaw that might doom them but one that they’ve skirted up to this point thanks to 66.9% of their shots coming from inside the arc.
That game plan should be enough for them to advance on Friday, given the raw edge in talent I give them (8.1-point favorite), but they are going to have to knock down some jumpers if they want an invite to the Final Four.
This was the first spread bet I locked in for this round, and it’s based on bully ball. The second-best rebounding team in the field faces off against the literal worst, with the Spartans winning 19 of their 20 top efforts on the glass.
I like their chances to have the right to face the tournament’s top seed this weekend (sadly, for Sparty nation, I’d have them getting just about as many points to Auburn as they are giving Ole Miss).
West Region
The No. 1 seed Florida Gators left Selection Sunday as the hottest team in the land and the betting favorite. They’ve handled their business up to this point, but the flaws in their profile that had them sitting in the same tier as four other teams in this region (UConn, Texas Tech, Maryland, and Colorado State) have continued to crop up.
They ranked 51st in this field in free throw percentage and nearly squandered a chance to end this season with a win by missing 12 free throws in the second half on Sunday afternoon against UConn.
It didn’t ultimately cost them, but leaving points at the charity stripe is a good way to get picked off by a slightly lesser team, a result that could happen as early as the Sweet 16.
A little more in the weeds is their low assist rate (41st among tournament teams). At some level, elite talent supersedes the need for team play, especially at the collegiate level, but history suggests that the ability to set up teammates creates an offensive floor that typically has success this time of year.
Walter Clayton Jr. made every tough shot down the stretch over the weekend to put this team on his back and it’s great to have the ability to do that, but again, if you tempt fate consistently, you’re asking for problems.
Speaking of asking for problems, Maryland got away with it on Sunday night thanks to the Derik Queen buzzer beater. They allowed Colorado State to out-rebound them (39-29) and post a near 2.0 assist-to-turnover rate while shooting 57.1% from inside the arc.
Give me that profile with no other context, and I’m not asking for the result but rather how much the Terps lost. Instead, they advanced on the best game of the tournament because they were +15 points from a distance (the Rams missed 16 of their 21 attempts while four of Maryland’s starters made multiple triples).
In some respects, it’s better to be lucky than good, but in terms of projecting the future and not detailing the past, I’d much prefer “good.”
Queen is pretty clearly a lottery pick, and teams with that sort of player operating with confidence are impossible to count out, but asking him to do the heavy lifting against this supersized Gator frontcourt is a bit more optimistic than I’m willing to be.
I’m in line with the betting markets in favor of Florida by 5-6 points in the Sweet 16, and I’d label them again as a multi-possession underdog should they advance and play the favorite (Texas Tech) for the right to represent this region in the Final Four.
John Calipari has this team peaking at the right time, and that’s great to see. However, it’s tough to wonder how much of what they’ve done in these two games is predictive.
They beat a Kansas team in Round 1 that had underachieved for the better part of three months and committed 16 turnovers, many of which were their own.
They then pulled off the upset of St. John’s, but the Red Storm’s primary weakness caught up with them, and I’m not sure it was anything more than math playing out as opposed to the Razorbacks dialing up some sort of genius scheme.
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In that game, Arkansas missed 17 of their 19 triples – and they were the better shooting team from deep.
You have to win the games presented to you, and for that, this Arkansas team deserves credit. That said, they were the 56th-graded rebounding team entering this tournament and are -10 on the glass in a pair of victories. Heck, a spot where they popped in my research was their ability to defend without fouling – they’ve sent struggling offenses to the stripe 47 times so far.
In my opinion, Arkansas is a good example of a nice story rather than a projectable Cinderella situation. They are not just the lowest ranked team remaining in this region for me, they are two tiers behind the other three.
That positions Texas Tech to make a real run. That may not be shocking as a three-seed, but with momentum building around St. John’s and Florida coming off of conference tournament championships, the Red Raiders were under-discussed by most last week as we were preparing to get things started.
The Red Raiders are pretty simple, and that’s why I’m a fan.
my guy @KyleSoppePFN gave all the takes needed to win your brackets this year: pic.twitter.com/pjkWldruMa
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) March 17, 2025
Nothing has changed (pre-tournament +3500 title odds). They entered this event with a potential first-round NBA Draft pick and a team around him that fills roles. JT Toppin didn’t shine in Round 1, but through two games, all he has done is make 81% of his shots (17-of-21) and improve his stock. His presence in the paint on both ends allows every other member of this team to thrive, and they’ve done just that.
Sort of.
Texas Tech was my sixth-ranked team on my March Madness Power Rankings, and that just so happens to be where they slotted in when it comes to team assist-to-turnover rate. The symmetry in those rankings is nice, but not nearly as nice as their 2.8 assist-to-turnover ratio through two games (34:12).
I mentioned Florida’s struggle with the “team” component of basketball and how that concerns me when it comes to their ability to rattle off six straight wins—I have no such concerns here.
They’ve posted two straight wins despite being on the wrong side of shooting variance (23rd in the nation in 3P% this season, but just 15-of-60 so far), and if water finds its level in that regard or comes even close, this is the team I like to get to San Antonio.
East Region
Over the past 3.5 months, we’ve had more presidents than Duke defeats.
And the one loss? All Clemson had to do was shoot 63.4% on two-point shots at home while holding Cooper Flagg to three made two-point shots across 38 minutes and out-rebounding the Blue Devils (the seventh-best rebounding team in the nation) by 13.
That’s all. Easy game.
I mentioned pre-tournament that this Duke team had the second-best profile in my database (dating back to 2021), and I fear that I may have been too low.
That’s not to say they are a shoo-in to win their next four games in a UConn fashion from the past two seasons, but you’d have to be crazy to rule out that possibility. Statistically speaking, Duke isn’t a part of Tier 1—they are Tier 1.
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They entered this tournament ranked second in the field in eFG% – they’ve outscored their opponents by 39 points from three-point land and 14 points from the stripe thus far. They are shooting 55.7% from the field and have simply been overwhelming. Duke ended the season fifth in this field in rebound rate, a muscle they haven’t had to flex just yet (+3 rebounds).
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There isn’t an above-average defense standing between them and San Antonio. Anything can happen when 18-to-22-year-old kids play a 40-minute game, but it’s going to take a lot of check marks on the variance bingo card to stop these Blue Devils.
The defense they draw on Thursday night is an Arizona one that ranks 45th in this field and allowed at least 38 points in both halves of their Round 2 win over Oregon. They were saved by 10 misses from the Ducks at the line, but if “free throw defense” is what you’re banking on, we are talking about an ultra-thin profile.
Don’t get me wrong, the Wildcats are a solid team, with Caleb Love running the show. They rank 12th in this field in rebounding (+7 against Oregon after manhandling an overmatched Akron team on Friday) and are running hot in terms of accuracy from deep (22-of-45, 48.9%, through two games).
They are going to have to continue to check both of those boxes in a big way if they are going to pull off this upset. My issue here is that they want to play up-tempo, and maximizing possessions against a loaded team like Duke just puts you in a position where the talent gap is being magnified.
I think Arizona provides a greater challenge to the Blue Devils than Oregon would have, but unless they find defensive structure over the next few days (20+ FTA allowed in both tournament games), I have a hard time seeing this being a tight game (I have Duke favored by 12.4 points).
On the other half of the region, we get a game with a wide range of outcomes that should be a joy to watch.
It is a “joy to watch” in the same way that teaching your 16-year-old kid to drive is a “joy to watch.” It’s fun, scary, nerve-wracking, chaotic, and dangerous all in one single experience. Buckle up.
BYU entered tournament play ranked third in eFG% and has proven capable of scoring in bunches anyway, never mind against a team like Alabama that prefers to play defense with its offense.
I was especially impressed by their Round 1 win over VCU, in which they were -24 points from the distance. Losing the shooting battle is obviously less than ideal, but they showed some grit by converting 58.8% of their shots from inside the arc.
That showed me that, at least for a 40-minute sample, this team is willing to pick at a weakness rather than force its strength.
That’s important in any setting, but especially when a team has nearly a full week to gameplan against you. This is very much a defense-is-optional matchup, and while I’m willing to overlook some lapses on that end, it’s been the inability to put out the fire that has me trending away for the Cougars.
In Round 1, Zeb Jackson was feeling it, and BYU could do nothing with him (23 points on 14 shots). On Saturday night, despite their entire scheme being designed to limit the value of John Tonje’s touches, he poured in 37 points, a program record for a tournament game (10-18 FG, 14-16 FT).
Alabama is well aware of the fire BYU plays with on the offensive end, and they will be looking to fuel it by speeding up the tempo.
For most teams, that’s a dangerous idea, but for the Tide, it’s right where they want to be. I’d be looking to fade ‘Bama in some matchups, as they generally don’t fill the well-rounded profile that I want this time of year, but this is a game of matchups, and in this one, I can look past their warts.
Mark Sears has 168 games on his collegiate resume and is going to be ultra comfortable in this setting. He’s as capable as Tonje in terms of getting hot, and with his team averaging 10.9% more possessions per 40 minutes, his impact only stands to be magnified.
I have this game as a coin-flip, and in a spot like that, give me the team with the best isolation scorer in a projected shootout.
As for those flaws with Alabama, I think they catch up to them once they get out of their comfort zone.
Even in a pair of wins thus far, we’ve seen some of their weaknesses present themselves—they’ve already missed 13 free throws and are -18 on the offensive glass. Alabama is likely to run into well-rounded profiles after this fireworks display in the Sweet 16, and that is the type of opponent that projects as a major problem.
When hot, they can beat anyone, but to count on that for another four games is a statistical risk I’m not interested in.
Midwest Region
When the brackets were released, it was speculated that Houston would have to win a de facto Elite Eight game in Round 2—they survived. Things got hairy late, and Gonzaga had a shot to tie on their final possession, but they were able to advance, and that’s the name of the game.
Be careful. Very careful.
Yes, they opened as an 8.5-point favorite over Purdue, but my historical numbers disagree—in a major way. They actually make the Boilermakers a slight favorite, and while I’m not suggesting that they have more talent, their profile has me labeling this as much more competitive than sportsbooks are suggesting.
Let’s first start with the Sweet 16 betting lean. The Cougars play obnoxiously slow, and that makes covering a big number difficult against anyone, let alone maybe the best point guard in the country.
OK, so you’re holding a Purdue ATS ticket, but I’m not stopping there. Houston’s defense has been a staple all season long, and while they escaped Gonzaga, their uber-efficient attack was able to produce a 50-45-100 shooting split. Not many teams are built like the ‘Zags, but Purdue would be on the short list of programs that can do it.
Houston’s ranking dead last in this field in assist percentage (not of the remaining teams, of all 68 teams that qualified) is a problem. It hasn’t really been a problem in terms of results yet, but if the defense shows signs of cracks like it did on Saturday night, a scoring drought occurring from isolation basketball becomes even more influential.
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The Boilermakers aren’t a perfect team and aren’t anywhere as good as they were 365 days ago, but sleep on them at your own peril. Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith have developed into star-level players that can take over singular games, but beyond that, Purdue has shown some growth potential over the past two weeks.
They entered tournament play ranking 40th of 68 teams in FT% and 53rd in rebound rate. Those are fatal flaws many nights, but I’ve been impressed by their 80 tournament minutes (+38 on the glass and negating accuracy issues from the stripe with 21 more attempts than their opponents).
In the bottom portion of this region, chalk is held, and we get a third Kentucky/Tennessee game to enjoy. The Wildcats won each of the first two meetings, which means we are going to get all of the “it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season” we can handle.
I don’t buy it.
You know what’s hard? Beating Tennessee once. You’ll get my pick for this game in a minute, but the results of the first two meetings have nothing to do with it.
Let’s start with Kentucky. They want to run, run, and then run some more once they’ve worn out the defense. I think this is their last chance to realistically play a game in which they are comfortable from a possession count standpoint, and with that understanding, they carry plenty of win-equity into this SEC showdown.
Tennessee is 6-3 in its nine fastest games, a fine record but not nearly as intimidating as its 23-4 mark in its other 27 games. The Jan. 28 loss to these Wildcats is included in that data set, but I’m not sure that result had anything to do with the pace. Kentucky won the three-point scoring battle in that game despite attempting 21 fewer attempts.
Let me say that again. They outscored Tennessee from distance despite 21 fewer bites at the apple.
That’s close to illogical and certainly not predictive when looking for happenings in earlier matchups that could impact this one. Zakai Zeigler missed 10 of his 11 three-point attempts during a midseason slump—he promptly made 12-of-18 over the next 3.5 weeks. If we split the difference, the two-seed is going to have every chance to advance to the Elite Eight.
Kentucky’s defense (62nd in this field) has been an issue all season long, and that flaw could be exploited heavily. That said, I have to give credit where credit is due.
Through two games, they’ve been closing out hard on perimeter threats and have thus forced their opponents into 17-of-64 shooting from distance. It should be noted that neither Troy nor Illinois comes with the potency of the Vols, but baby steps have been made, and Kentucky supporters should be encouraged by that.
But can their offense (10th best eFG% in the field despite playing the third toughest schedule) crack the code? Tennessee entered the tournament with the 10th-best defense in the field and has allowed just 12 2PM in both of their wins thus far, holding opponents to just 40.7% shooting from inside of the arc.
Perimeter excellence is great and something the Wildcats are capable of doing at a high level, but if the Volunteers continue to defend the rim the way they have, they have a chance to rip off four more victories.
Tennessee’s assist-to-turnover has been something of a calling card this season with veteran Zeigler using the court as his chess board, putting every specific piece in a position to do optimal damage.
We didn’t see that version of this team against UCLA (15 assists against 18 turnovers), but I’m OK with calling that an aberration more than anything (Zeigler had five turnovers, bringing his tournament total to five).
In fact, I’m more encouraged by their ability to win despite struggling in an area of strength than I am discouraged by it occurring. Tennessee was +10 on the glass over the weekend, allowing them to overcome the uncharacteristic day in the turnover department.
My lone nit to pick with what we’ve seen from this team so far is that they have six more three-point attempts than free throws in both tournament games.
Perimeter reliance like that not only brings variance into the equation—something Tennessee fans shouldn’t be looking for, as I believe they are the more talented team—but it also encourages Kentucky’s breakneck pace of play.
Tennessee opened as a 4.5-point favorite over the Wildcats, and that is in line with what I would make the line should they win (I don’t have Purdue and Houston separated by much). When looking at the remaining teams, I think this is the group of death, and that gives us a decent opportunity to back the Vols in the future markets.
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