Every college basketball team, all 364 of them, open the year with the goal of playing in the NCAA Final Four. That dream has been dashed for 348 schools with a Sweet 16 still chasing the ultimate prize.
Duke has established themselves as the clear betting favorite to cut down the nets, and the other three No. 1-seeds make up a second tier of contender according to sportsbooks, but asking them all to win their region, let alone win their next four games, is something I’m not comfortable doing.
Who makes it to San Antonio with a pair of wins this week?
South Region Final Four Projection
By seeding math, there were a pair of upsets in the second round in this region, and that paved the way for the tournament’s top overall seed to be the odds-on favorite to emerge. My numbers align with that of sportsbooks at the top of the board in the South, but the odds after that vary, thus creating an interesting buying opportunity.
As you can see, the Tigers dominate the winning equity here, and if you have them advancing through your bracket, you should feel reasonably good about the way this region has played out. That said, if you’re more concerned about the betting market, there’s a window here to consider the other options.
- Michigan: By far the least foul-prone team remaining in this region
- Michigan State: Owner of easily the best defense remaining in this region
- Mississippi: The first best assist-to-turnover rate in the initial field
All of these schools are close alphabetically, and they all possess a strength that, if allowed to shine at full capacity, could land them a seat at the Final Four. Some profiles, however, are more predictive than others, especially when accounting for Auburn as the team that will need to be knocked off the ledge to cash a juicy ticket.
Ole Miss has been a middling three-point shooting team all season, and it required them to play well above baseline over the weekend against Iowa State (11-of-19 from 3) in order to advance.
They were outrebounded and a little too reliant on Sean Pedulla for my liking when it comes to beating superior competition – remove their star guards’ assists, and the Rebels assisted on just seven of 24 made shots, a trait that points at a creation problem on that end.
As for Sparty, they’ve been held under 45% shooting from the field in both games thus far despite playing a pair of double-digit seeds. They entered this event with consistency issues on that end of the floor (60th in eFG%), and prolonged scoring droughts feel inevitable as they ramp up the level of competition.
That leaves us with the Wolverines, a team with a frontcourt that can bang with the Tigers the same way Creighton did for a half over the weekend but with a reliable singular offensive hub in which they revolve.
The Bluejays were predictable and that allowed Auburn to catch on – their four starters not named Steven Ashworth combined for five assists in 131 minutes of action.
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Danny Wolf won’t let that happen.
He’s a creative big that can hurt defenses in a variety of ways. While I love what he brings to the table on the offensive end, it’s Michigan’s ability to protect him on the other side that I think gives them a real shot to beat Auburn and then find themselves favored in the Elite Eight (I make the two points better than Michigan State).
Ole Miss is the outlier in terms of my rankings of the remaining four teams – I could see the other three representing the South in San Antonio, a sentiment that the oddsmakers don’t share.
West Region Final Four Projection
It’s hard to call a John Calipari led team “Cinderella”, but Arkansas is about all we have in terms of an off the radar option left.
That’s cute and all, but they grade out as a low-end Tier 4 team in this field for me, while two Tier 2 and a Tier 3 team remain in their way from escaping this region. The Razorbacks have won two games, and that is two more than I thought they’d get. However, the books and I agree that there is less than a one-in-10 chance of them continuing to overachieve.
As for the remaining teams, I have it handicapped as a two team race for the crown while Vegas gives Florida a decisive edge on the field.
But why?
The Gators are easily the worst free throw shooting team of the trio (just ask the Florida fans in your life how stressful the last few minutes were over the weekend if you need proof) and their passing is a work in progress.
Walter Clayton Jr. made enough tough shots against UConn to cover up for the creation limitations that this team has, but what if a few come up short?
I thought the Huskies did a reasonable job at making life difficult for him, something they were able to do because they weren’t threatened by ball movement.
It didn’t end in the result that they wanted, but if the 50th-ranked defense in the field could gameplan effectively on short rest, what is Maryland’s seventh-ranked unit going to be capable of with a week of leeway?
Should they advance and draw Texas Tech, they run into a Red Raiders team that would, in my opinion, have the best player on the court in addition to owning a 75th percentile offense in both passing and free throw shooting.
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Maybe Florida runs them out of the building, and these minor concerns that tend to pop up in close game settings don’t matter. That is within the range of outcomes for a team playing a well over the last two months as anyone, but I’m not betting on it.
I have Texas Tech graded 1.3 points better than Florida should the matchup occur and that is why this was the first button I hit when regional markets populated following the conclusion of Round 2 (my +600 pre-tournament ticket in Texas Tech needed some company!).
East Region Final Four Projection
This is a fun tournament, but I said it at the beginning with Duke holding my second best profile grade over the past five seasons, they had the potential to make this feel a lot like last year with a semi-inevitable final result.
The Blue Devils are +67 points through two rounds, and while the level of competition will stiffen, their level of play should respond. Tyrese Proctor is shooting like Stephen Curry from his Davidson days, but with the MonStars around him in terms of support.
Cooper Flagg (47.8% from the field with two just made triples on seven attempts) and Kon Knueppel (10 shot attempts in two games after averaging essentially 10 per contest during the regular season) haven’t been taxed at all, something that figures to pay dividends with time.
Tyrese Proctor are you serious 😳#MarchMadness @DukeMBB pic.twitter.com/26zibn7aCb
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2025
Oh yeah, and Khaman Maluach’s next missed shot will be his first of this event (8-of-8 in his 38 minutes).
Fading Duke right now is simply trying to make a statement or a game theory play in a DFS sort of setting. The betting market isn’t the place for that – you don’t have to bet on college basketball’s Evil Empire, but betting against them is a move that not a single of the metrics I swim around suggests is wise.
If you want action in this region and don’t want to bet into a favorite at the current price, I have exposure to the under 174.5 points in BYU/Alabama.
Yes, it’s spitting in the face of fun, but neither team makes free throws at an above-average rate, and I have these two profiles separated by less than half a point – my thought is that this is a tight contest late and that forces these teams to actually value possessions as opposed to playing the volume game (I have Alabama winning 85-84).
Midwest Region Final Four Projection
The spiciest of the regions was saved for last – Vegas and I don’t see things in the same light at all. Only time will tell who is right, but if you like the directions my numbers have pointed up to this point, there is money to be made!
The Houston thing is going to stand out, and it should. They are a very talented team and could well make me look silly, but their profile simply doesn’t align with past champions the way their counterparts in this loaded region do.
Chalk has prevailed up to this point and that means three of the top 13 teams from my pre-tournament power rankings are still alive (Houston: 29th). The Cougars’ profile was dragged down by a lack of offensive creativity and the foul propensity they carry on the defensive end.
The straight forward offensive game plan works well when a talent edge is obvious, that’s just not likely to be the case for either of their next two games, should they be fortunate enough to play into the weekend.
While they are predictable, Purdue has maybe the best point guard in the country at the controls, while Kentucky’s pace stands to put them in an uncomfortable spot, and Tennessee’s two-some of Zakai Ziegler/Chad Lanier might be the backcourt combination I trust most of the remaining teams.
Houston has been great all year and, generally speaking, for half a decade. Their three-guard lineup is potent, and J’Wan Roberts certainly looked to be at full strength against Gonzaga.
This isn’t a knock on them as much as it is building up the other three teams – these are going to be coin toss games across the board and I’m not betting on a pretty heavy favorite to come out on the right side of those situations twice in three days.
As for my odds-adjusted choice of Purdue – it’s a simplistic profile that has proven successful this time of year. Braden Smith has his problems with turnovers on occasion, but how many players are you more comfortable with making decisions down the stretch of a game?
The list is short. Heck, it might not even be a list. Even with the high percentage looks of Zach Edey, Smith is leading an offense that entered the tournament ranked seventh in effective field goal percentage, a credit to their execution.
Trey Kaufman-Renn has emerged as a go-to threat who plays within himself and off of Smith perfectly. He’s shooting 59.9% from the field this season, and while his range doesn’t extend as deep as I’d like, his ability to get to the line (10+ free throws in three of four games this postseason) allows Purdue to work off of the respect he demands.
Fletcher Loyer has started in all of his 109 career games as a Boilermaker and holds a 3P% north of 40% during his time on campus. He’s not afraid of the moment, is a lights-out free throw shooter to help ice games, and will be looking to rectify a bumpy end to last season (final three games: 7-of-26 from the field).
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If this was a Tennessee OR Kentucky situation, I’d love them to advance, but considering that one of them is not going to survive the Sweet 16, the math works against them both. If you have a hard stance on this game, I have no issue in you backing your winner to win this region, but this is the game that I spent the most time with when filling out my bracket and the game that has my spreadsheets spinning in circles.
I lean toward Tennessee, but not with the confidence that the sportsbooks do, and that makes betting them to win two games a tough ask. That said, if we Purdue upsets Houston (+310 on open at DraftKings), we get ourselves a fine hedging opportunity in the Elite Eight.
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