The No. 9 Baylor Bears (19-14) and the No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) square off in what is expected to be one of the closest matchups of the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs enter as slight favorites, largely due to their high-powered offense, averaging 78 points per game, and recent performances against top-tier SEC opponents.
Meanwhile, Baylor’s recent struggles against the spread (9-18-3 ATS this season) and its defensive vulnerabilities, particularly on the perimeter, make them a tough bet. However, Baylor has an edge in postseason experience, and guards V.J. Edgecombe and Jeremy Roach could prove pivotal in a tournament setting.
Betting Details:
- Spread: Mississippi State -1.5
- Moneyline: Baylor (+100), Mississippi State (-120)
- Over/Under: 144.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 21, 2025 | 12:15 p.m. EST
- Location: PNC Arena | Raleigh, NC
- How To Watch: CBS
Mississippi State vs. Baylor CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN’s advanced analytics, Mississippi State has a 53% chance of winning, while Baylor sits at 47%. This aligns closely with the Vegas odds, which favor Mississippi State slightly at -1.5.
The game is expected to be a true toss-up, with both teams possessing strengths that could dictate the pace of play. Mississippi State’s offensive efficiency and ability to cash the OVER in six of their last seven games contrast with Baylor’s defensive lapses, particularly from beyond the arc, where they allow opponents to shoot 35% (277th in the nation). However, Baylor’s ability to limit transition points could keep this game tighter than expected.
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Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Baylor
The Bulldogs have the statistical edge in scoring and efficiency, but Baylor’s backcourt duo of Edgecombe and Roach could exploit Mississippi State’s half-court defense. Mississippi State thrives in up-tempo scenarios, but Baylor’s ability to slow the game down and force contested shots could play a major role. If Baylor can find consistency from three-point range and limit turnovers, they have a legitimate shot at an upset.
Prediction: Baylor 74, Mississippi State 71
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