The No. 8 Michigan State Spartans will be on the road against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Thursday night in a hugely important game for the Hawkeyes.
A win would keep Iowa’s hopes alive for being a part of the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, while a loss would be especially dooming for their chances. Meanwhile, the Spartans are feeling good as of late, having put together five straight wins and have looked like one of the best teams in the nation. Who will come out on top?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Michigan State vs. Iowa Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Iowa odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 6, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan State -7.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -290, Iowa +240 - Over/Under
151.5 Points - Game Time
Thursday, March 6, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Carver-Hawkeye Arena | Iowa City, IA - How To Watch
FS1
Michigan State has been terrific at covering this season with a 19-9-1 overall record ATS. That number is even better in Big Ten matchups, with a 13-4-1 record ATS. The Spartans have covered each of their last five contests as part of their five-game winning streak.
On the other side, Iowa has been equally as bad with covering games, with a 10-18-1 record ATS. They have the reverse record to Michigan State of 4-13-1 in conference outings, including them not having covered the spread in six consecutive games.
Deploying one of the top defenses in the country has been a driving force behind an eye-popping 20 of 29 Michigan State games, having gone under the point total. That number includes six games in a row and nine of 10 with the under as the successful bet.
Iowa has a middling over/under track record, with 15 games going over and 14 going under. 50% of their conference matchups have gone under, including each of their last two games in which they averaged only 59 ppg.
Michigan State vs. Iowa Preview
Michigan State comes into this game with a 24-5 overall and 15-3 Big Ten record, good for sole possession of first place by 1.5 games with two games to go. A win in this one would clinch a regular-season title for the Spartans.
The Hawkeyes have had a disappointing season so far, posting a 15-14 record, including 6-12 in conference play, which has them slotted at No. 16 in the Big Ten standings. If the season were to end today, Iowa would not be invited to the end-of-season tournament in Indianapolis, IN, as only the top 15 seeds participate. That raises the stakes of this one for the Hawkeyes—but it’s an unlucky draw that it comes against the Spartans.
Michigan State’s emergence as a second-tier title contender has largely been due to the development of freshman guard Jase Richardson. The son of NBA veteran Jason Richardson, Jase has turned himself into every bit of a scorer as his old man was. Over his last seven games, the 6’3″ guard is averaging 16.0 ppg, a team-high.
Leading scorer on the season, senior guard Jaden Akins, is consistent but doesn’t quite possess the potent offensive ability that the younger guard has. Akins averages 12.9 ppg while scoring in double digits in nine of his last 11 games.
6’9″ junior forward Jaxon Kohler provides toughness down low as a huge competitor and defensive force while grabbing a team-high 7.9 rpg. He also adds 7.9 ppg. Overall, the Spartans have a balanced squad with the capabilities of a different player leading the team in scoring from night to night.
The Hawkeyes are less balanced. Leading scorer Payton Sandfort is a tremendous shooter, averaging 16.1 ppg, grabbing 6.2 rpg, and dishing out 3.0 apg. However, his shooting numbers don’t tell the entire story, as he’s hitting only 33.3% of his shots from beyond the arc.
Sandfort has had to handle more of the ball-handling and offensive creation for Iowa this season—not necessarily a strength of his, but he still remains one of the most dangerous deep threats in the conference.
Aiding him in the backcourt is junior guard Josh Dix, who adds in 14.0 ppg and 2.7 apg. He’s also a major threat from deep, shooting 42.0% from three-point range this season. 6’0″ sophomore guard Brock Harding leads the team in assists with 5.4 apg while also scoring 8.8 ppg.
Record-wise and roster-wise, this game is a mismatch. But the Hawkeyes will have home-court advantage and are playing to extend their season—certainly a dangerous situation for the opposing team.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
For this game, the bets are relatively straightforward when you look at the numbers. At this point in the season, teams have shown their true selves through nearly 30 games—so you should trust the numbers. More often than not, they’ll lead you to pay-dirt.
Between Michigan State and Iowa, one team is terrific at covering the spread, while the other is simply not. The Spartans, the team that holds a great record ATS, is favored by 7.5 points. Although the game is on the road—and the Hawkeyes are essentially playing for their season—this is a surprisingly low number.
It’s not like Michigan State is playing for nothing. With a win, they’d clinch the Big Ten regular-season title while still being in contention for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish to the season. Therefore, motivation runs high for both teams.
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Take Michigan State to cover the -7.5. The line should be more around 12.5 or 13.5, but we’ll gladly take it right where it’s currently at.
For the total, the Spartans have shown a major propensity over the entire season—but especially of late—to go under in games they’re involved in. That should be no different here, especially considering Iowa is averaging 59.0 ppg in their last two outings.
Take the under of 151.5 points, as I expect the Spartans’ defense to smother the Hawkeyes’ offense and come out with a comfortable victory in Iowa City.
Picks: Michigan State -7.5, Under 151.5 Points
Prediction: Michigan State 78, Iowa 67
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