March Madness is heating up, and Friday night’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 2 Michigan State and No. 6 Ole Miss promises to be one of the most compelling battles of the tournament.
The Spartans, led by legendary coach Tom Izzo, enter as favorites, while the Rebels, under Chris Beard’s leadership, have been a bracket-busting force. Can Ole Miss continue its Cinderella run, or will Michigan State’s defensive prowess and tournament experience prove too much to handle?
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Ole Miss odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 28, 2025.
- Spread: Michigan State (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Michigan State (-160), Ole Miss (+135)
- Over/Under: 143.5
- Game Time: Friday, March 28, 2025, at 7:09 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Arena | Atlanta, Georgia
- How to Watch: CBS
Michigan State (-2.5) enters the game as the slight favorite, a nod to the Spartans’ tournament pedigree and defensive efficiency. They have covered the spread 23 times this season, boasting an ATS record of 23-11-1.
On the other hand, Ole Miss has proven itself against top competition, covering 18 times this year. The over/under for this game is set at 143.5 points, and both teams have shown they can push the total over this mark, with Ole Miss doing so in 19 games and Michigan State in 16.
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss CSN Winning Probability
According to CSN, Michigan State has a 59.7% chance of winning, which aligns with Vegas’ odds but suggests the game could be closer than the spread indicates. Ole Miss, with a 44.6% implied probability, has thrived in the underdog role, winning 43.8% of their games when not favored.
Michigan State’s ability to control tempo and force turnovers could make the difference, but the Rebels’ aggressive defense (forcing 14.2 turnovers per game) gives them a fighting chance.
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Prediction for Michigan State vs. Ole Miss
This game presents an intriguing tactical battle between two experienced head coaches.
Izzo’s Spartans have the advantage in tournament experience and defensive efficiency, ranking 44th in the nation in points allowed per game (67.0). They force 11.3 turnovers per game and hold opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field, ranking 24th in defensive field goal percentage.
However, Beard’s Rebels are no strangers to chaos. They force 14.2 turnovers per game, draw 18 fouls per contest, and have a scrappy defense that can disrupt Michigan State’s rhythm. Offensively, Ole Miss exploded for 91 points against Iowa State in the previous round, proving they have the firepower to challenge the Spartans.
The key matchup will be Michigan State’s disciplined half-court offense against Ole Miss’ high-pressure defense. If the Rebels can force the Spartans into turnovers and convert in transition, they could pull off another upset. However, if Michigan State controls the tempo and executes efficiently, their defensive edge should carry them to victory.
Prediction: Michigan State 75, Ole Miss 68
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