The Michigan Wolverines will host their in-state rival, the Michigan State Spartans, with the top spot in the Big Ten on the line.
The Wolverines have ascended to first place in the conference off the strength of a closely-contested six-game winning. The Spartans have stumbled of late, losing three of six yet still can jump into first with a win in Ann Arbor. Which squad will come out with a win on Friday night?
Find out below as we make a prediction for this highly anticipated Big Ten matchup, as well as break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Betting Preview
All Michigan State vs. Michigan odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Feb. 21, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan -2.5 - Moneyline
Michigan -152, Michigan State +126 - Over/Under
151.5 points - Game Time
Friday, Feb. 21, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Crisler Center | Ann Arbor, MI - How To Watch
FOX
The Spartans enter with a superb cover record this season, going 16-9-1 overall ATS. The trend has continued in conference play with a 10-4-1 record ATS. However, as part of their stumbles as of late, they’ve only covered three of their past six.
Michigan State’s 20 wins this season has come in part due to a terrific defense, which correlated with their over/under track record; only nine of 26 matchups have reached the over. 66% of their conference meetings have gone under, as well as six of their last seven outings and each of their last three games.
Michigan is 12-13 ATS this season, including only 5-9 ATS in conference play. Of their last nine games, they’ve only covered once, and it was their last game when they were the underdog. They’ve gone 7-2 during that stretch, with a majority of the games coming down to the wire.
The Wolverines have gone over the point total in 14 of 25 games overall. They’ve gone over at a slightly higher rate of 64.3% in conference matchups. However, the under has been the successful play in four of their last six.
Michigan State vs. Michigan CSN Power Rankings Line
Our power rankings suggest this line may be a tad bit higher than the posted line of Michigan -2.5. The Spartans come in at No. 29, while the Wolverines occupy the No. 10 spot.
Combine that with the game also taking place in Ann Arbor, providing a clear home-court advantage in this rivalry game. The advantage, according to our power rankings, falls with Michigan.
Preview for Michigan State vs. Michigan
The Wolverines’ six-game win streak that they bring into this game could be seen as deceiving. Yes, they have won each of the contests — within the final minute. Of their six wins, they’ve come by an average margin of victory of 3.2 points.
Meanwhile, the Spartans have won their past two games by 14 and nine points, respectively. However, after beginning Big Ten play 9-0, they’ve shown cracks in recent weeks with a middling 3-3 record. On the season, they hold a 20-5 overall and 12-3 conference record — good enough to be ranked No. 14 nationally.
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Michigan is two spots higher at No. 12. They’ve compiled a 21-5 overall and 12-2 conference record, having played one less Big Ten game than Michigan State.
The catalysts for the Wolverines have been their seven-foot duo of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. Though both over 7’0″, they play extremely different games. While Goldin stays relatively in the painted area on both ends of the floor, averaging a team-leading 15.7 ppg, grabbing 6.2 rpg, and blocking 1.5 shots per game, Wolf is more of a unicorn.
The Yale transfer moves much like a guard, with ball-handling, shooting, and passing ability. He scores 12.9 ppg, and totals 3.6 apg. He’s also a force defensively, with 1.5 bpg and averaging a team-high 10.0 rpg.
The duo runs big-on-big pick-and-rolls with much success, putting opposing teams in a major bind.
6’3″ junior point guard Tre Donaldson is also a good passer with a team-leading 4.0 apg, along with producing 12.7 ppg. He’s extremely steady, scoring in double-figures in 13 of his last 15 outings.
The Spartans are especially balanced on the offensive end; in their past three games, they’ve had three different leading scorers.
Officially, senior guard Jaden Akins is the high scorer at 13.1 ppg. But recently, freshman guard Jase Richardson has made his case as the go-to guy and most dynamic offensive force on the team.
Over his last four games, Richardson is pouring in 16.3 ppg on 53.6% from the field. Junior forward Jaxon Kohler can also bring a scoring punch, evidenced by his game-high 23 points against the Illinois Fighting Illini last weekend. He also pulls down a team-high 7.7 rpg.
The backcourt duo of junior guard Tre Holloman and freshman guard Jeremy Fears combined to average 10.0 apg.
It will be intriguing to see how the Spartans decide to match up with Goldin and Wolf. They’ve been starting 7’0″ senior center Szymon Zapala as of late, yet he normally plays under 15 minutes a night.
Expect for Zapala to match up with Goldin early on and the 6’9″ Kohler to try to be physical with Wolf — a task easier said than done.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
With the way each of Michigan’s last six games have gone, it’s hard to imagine this one being a blowout either way. However, at some point, the close games will have to be replaced by more convincing victories.
I’d be willing to bet that this will be the one that breaks the streak of close games, but pushes the winning streak to seven games for the Wolverines.
The line of Michigan -2.5 still allows for the Spartans to stay close, but not cover or win the game. I expect Michigan State — like every other team in the Big Ten — to have trouble guarding both Goldin and Wolf.
Zapala should be able to compete with Goldin early, but ultimately, he’s a negative offensively. Spartans head coach Tom Izzo won’t be able to play Zapala for an immense number of minutes, putting more pressure on the Michigan State offense.
That side of the court has been good for Izzo this season, but it won’t be good enough against the raucous home crowd that will pack Crisler Center in Ann Arbor.
Following that point, the under has been a successful play for each of these teams lately — I’d be content taking the under of 151.5 points as well.
Additionally, there is one player prop that caught my eye.
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Wolf’s points line is set at 14.5. His last five games in terms of points scored, beginning from Feb. 1: 16, 15, 20, 15, 17. In February, he surpassed that 14.5 line in each game.
Going under would prove to be an anomaly for Wolf this month, providing great value on taking the over.
Picks: Michigan -2.5, Under 151.5 Points, Danny Wolf Over 14.5 Points
Prediction: Michigan 78, Michigan State 70
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