The eighth-ranked Michigan State Spartans will host their in-state rival, the 17th-ranked Michigan Wolverines, in a highly anticipated Big Ten matchup on Sunday afternoon.
The Spartans won by 13 points in Ann Arbor in the first meeting, completely shutting down any perimeter scoring for the Wolverines. Can Michigan rebound and finish with a split in the season series, or will Michigan State complete the season sweep?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Betting Preview
All Michigan vs. Michigan State odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Sunday, March 9, 2025.
- Spread
Michigan State -6.5 - Moneyline
Michigan State -285, Michigan +230 - Over/Under
147.5 Points - Game Time
Sunday, March 9, 12:00 p.m. ET - Location
Breslin Center | East Lansing, Mich. - How To Watch
CBS
Michigan has had numerous clutch wins this season, which has been a huge result of them only covering 13 of their 30 games this season despite winning 22 games. That number drops to 6-13 ATS in Big Ten play, including their inability to cover the spread in their last three games.
The Spartans, on the other hand, have been terrific in terms of covering. They hold a 20-9-1 record ATS, with a 14-4-1 conference record ATS. They’ve covered six games in a row as part of their current six-game winning streak.
The Wolverines have gone over the point total in 16 of their 30 games this season, with 11 of 19 games going over in the conference matchups. Their offense has dried up as of late however; over Michigan’s last five games, they’ve averaged only 66.6 ppg.
Having a stingy defense oftentimes leads to a majority of games going under, and that’s exactly where Michigan State finds themselves. Twenty of their 30 games have gone under, including 13 of 19 in Big Ten contests. The under has been the correct bet in nine of their last 11 games.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Preview
Michigan State enters this game nursing a six-game winning streak. It’s risen their national ranking to No. 8, as they have a 25-5 overall and 16-3 Big Ten record, having already clinched the conference’s regular-season title.
The Wolverines are the No. 17 team in the nation with a 22-8 overall record including a 14-5 conference record. That has them in second place in the standings, but with a loss, the Maryland Terrapins would pass them and take possession of that spot.
Vegas thinks that’s likely to happen, as they have the Spartans favored, and for good reason.
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Their defense has been their calling card all season, as they rank 15th in the country in terms of opposing field goal percentage. They also allow only 67.2 ppg their opponents on the year, the 40th-best mark nationally.
The emergence of Michigan State guard Jase Richardson as the team’s best scorer has immensely improved the offense. Over his last eight games in the starting lineup, he’s averaging 16.8 ppg after coming off the bench for most of the season.
The official leading scorer, senior guard Jaden Akins scores 13.0 ppg and is extremely reliable for double figure scoring each night. Junior forward Jaxon Kohler is the leader of the defense; at 6’9″, he’s disruptive and physical on that end of the floor.
Point guards Jeremy Fears Jr. and Tre Holloman combine to average nearly 10 assists per game despite not adding much in the scoring column.
The Wolverine’s offense is led by their duo of seven-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. Goldin excels in the paint as the team’s leading scorer at 16.3 ppg. Wolf plays more on the perimeter as a ball-handler and creator; at seven feet tall, it’s a spectacle to watch. He scores 12.7 ppg and dishes out 3.7 apg while grabbing team-leading 9.6 rpg.
In the backcourt, 6’3″ guard Tre Donaldson has had a solid season, averaging 11.9 ppg and 4.0 apg. However, he was absolutely shut down in the first meeting between these teams. The junior scored only three points on one of five shooting from the field.
That type of performance can’t happen again if Michigan hopes to even the season series against the Spartans on their home floor.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The point total being set at 147.5 points is … interesting, to say the least. The expected final score is 77-71.
Although Michigan State scored 91 points in their last outing against the Iowa Hawkeyes, that was a complete aberration from their entire season. Michigan is averaging 66.6 ppg over their last five games, having hit a dry spell on that end of the floor.
That’s exactly where the Spartans excel with one of the stingiest defenses in college basketball. Match that with the fact that the under has been the successful play in nine of their last 11 games, and the under is intriguing in this matchup.
We’ll take the under of 147.5 points, a surprisingly high mark.
In terms of the spread, this game will come down to one thing: how desperate will either team be?
The Spartans have secured the Big Ten regular-season title, while Michigan is locked into either second or third place in the conference standings. The rivalry should be enough to manufacture an intense game — but who will have the upper hand?
I’d be willing to bet it will be Michigan State to win, but Michigan to cover. Yes, they’ve only covered 13 of their 30 games — but that’s largely been because their wins have been by such close margins.
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The line being Michigan State -7.5 still allows for the Spartans to win, as I expect them to, but for the Wolverines to keep it close until the very end.
Take Michigan State +7.5, but I wouldn’t expect them to take the game outright.
Picks: Under 147.5 Points, Michigan +7.5
Prediction: Michigan State 71, Michigan 67
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