Men’s March Madness Sweet 16 Predictions: Analyzing the Matchups and Who’s Set to Advance

The 2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 is a heavyweight showdown with no team seeded lower than No. 10 and all four No. 1 seeds Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston still standing. The SEC dominates, with seven teams breaking the ACC record from nine years ago, setting the stage for intense battles.

From Alabama’s high-octane offense to Houston’s suffocating defense, this round promises drama as teams look for the Elite Eight seat. With upsets like Arkansas over St. John’s and Kentucky’s sweep of Tennessee, expect surprises as the stakes rise.

Matchup Analysis

The Sweet 16 features eight thrilling games with No. 1 seeds favored but underdogs like Arkansas and Kentucky poised for upsets. Let’s have a look at matchups-

(6) BYU Cougars vs. (2) Alabama Crimson Tide

On Thursday, March 27, at 7:09 p.m. ET, BYU and Alabama face off at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

BYU (24-9) upset Wisconsin in the second round, showcasing their 39% 3-point shooting, while Alabama (25-8) dominated their first-round opponent, led by Mark Sears’ 22 points and 10 assists.

Analysis: BYU’s elite 3-point shooting, driven by Dallin Hall with 3.2 assists, will test Alabama’s 48th-ranked 3-point defense. Alabama’s top-ten tempo and playmaking, averaging 1.15 points per possession, exploit BYU’s defense, which ranks outside the top 50. Alabama’s 8-3 Quad 1 record gives them the edge.

Prediction: Alabama 88 – BYU 84, covering the -4.5 spread.

(4) Maryland Terrapins vs. (1) Florida Gators

Maryland and Florida clash on Thursday, March 27, at 7:39 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.

Maryland (25-8) edged Colorado State 72-71, with Derik Queen scoring 16.3 PPG and hitting a buzzer-beater, while Florida (29-4) upset UConn 77-75, led by Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin’s 40 combined points.

Analysis: Florida’s No. 1 offense, averaging 1.20 points per possession and 35% 3-point shooting, will challenge Maryland’s 45th-ranked 3-point defense. Maryland’s top 20 defense and Queen’s interior play with 9.0 rpg keep it close, but Florida’s 15-1 run and depth with a 10-man rotation overpower them.

Prediction: Florida 82 – Maryland 74, covering the -6.5 spread.

(4) Arizona Wildcats vs. (1) Duke Blue Devils

Arizona and Duke face off on Friday, March 28, at 6:30 p.m. ET in Newark, NJ.

Arizona advanced with Caleb Love’s 29 points vs. Oregon, while Duke rides a 19-1 run despite Maliq Brown’s shoulder injury.

Analysis: Duke’s top-10 defense allows 0.88 points per possession, and Cooper Flagg, with 18 PPG and 8 RPG, overpowered Arizona despite Love’s scoring. All-time Duke leads Arizona 6-2 with their last meeting in 2011 (NCAA Tournament, Duke won 93-77). Duke’s 10-2 Quad 1 record outshines Arizona’s 7-4.

Prediction: Duke 85 – Arizona 78, covering the -8 spread.

(10) Arkansas Razorbacks vs. (3) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Arkansas takes on Texas Tech on Thursday, March 27, at 10:09 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.

Arkansas (20-13) upset St. John’s with their top 30 steals defense, while Texas Tech (25-8) advanced behind JT Toppin’s 16 PPG and 8 RPG.

Analysis: Arkansas’s pressure defense, ranking top 30 in steals, forces turnovers against Texas Tech’s 62nd-ranked turnover margin. Johnell Davis, with 15 PPG, and Jonas Aidoo, with 12 RPGs, exploit Texas Tech’s youth despite their No. 5 offense. Arkansas’s 6-5 Quad 1 record matches Texas Tech’s 8-2.

Prediction: Arkansas 76 – Texas Tech 73, winning outright as +195 underdogs and going over 147.5.

(6) Ole Miss Rebels vs. (2) Michigan State Spartans

On Friday, March 28, at 7:09 p.m. ET, Ole Miss and Michigan State meet at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.

Ole Miss (22-11) upset a No. 3 seed with their top 10 turnover-forcing defense, while Michigan State (27-6) survived New Mexico 71-63, led by Tre Holloman’s 14 points.

Analysis: Ole Miss forces 14 turnovers per game, but Michigan State’s top 10 defense, allowing 0.90 points per possession, stifles Matthew Murrell (16 PPG) and Jaylen Murray (14 PPG). The Spartans’ 8-2 Quad 1 record outshines Ole Miss’s 5-4.

Prediction: Michigan State 70 – Ole Miss 67, covering the -2.5 spread.

(3) Kentucky Wildcats vs. (2) Tennessee Volunteers

Kentucky faces Tennessee on Friday, March 28, at 7:39 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.

Kentucky (22-11) upset Illinois with Koby Brea scoring 23 points, while Tennessee (27-6) routed UCLA.

Analysis: Brea’s 40% 3-point shooting exploits Tennessee’s shallow bench with a seven-man rotation despite their top 10 defense allowing 0.94 points per possession. Kentucky swept Tennessee 2-0 this season, winning 85-81 and 78-74. Kentucky’s 6-5 Quad 1 record matches Tennessee’s 9-3, but the Wildcats’ head-to-head dominance gives them confidence.

Prediction: Kentucky 74 – Tennessee 71, winning outright as +170 underdogs and going under 146.5.

(5) Michigan Wolverines vs. (1) Auburn Tigers

Michigan and Auburn square off on Friday, March 28, at 9:39 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.

Michigan (24-9) rallied past Texas A&M, with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin combining for 37 points, while Auburn (28-5) boasts 16 Quad 1 wins.

Analysis: Auburn’s top-five offense and 37% 3-point shooting exploit Michigan’s 40th-ranked three-point defense. Johni Broome, with 18 PPG and 10 RPG, dominates, while Michigan’s size ranking top 25 in rebounding keeps it close. Auburn’s 10-2 Quad 1 record prevails.

Prediction: Auburn 80 – Michigan 70, covering the -7.5 spread.

(4) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (1) Houston Cougars

Purdue battles Houston on Thursday, March 27, at 10:09 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.

Purdue (22-11) advanced behind Braden Smith’s 15 PPG and 7 APG, while Houston (30-4) dominated Gonzaga, with LJ Cryer scoring 30 points.

Analysis: Houston’s No. 1 defense allows 0.85 points per possession and forces 15 turnovers, limiting Smith. Cryer and J’Wan Roberts exploit Purdue’s 30th-ranked defense while Houston’s 12-2 Quad 1 record outshines Purdue’s 6-5.

Prediction: Houston 72 – Purdue 62, covering the -7.5 spread.

Elite Eight Projections