For the first time in the Bill Self era (21 years), Kansas has failed to earn a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. The Jayhawks enter the tournament as a seven-seed, highlighting how tumultuous Kansas’ season has been.
The Kansas Jayhawks are Still in a Good Spot Despite Seven-Seed
Under Self, the Jayhawks finished with a 21-12 record, including going 11-9 in conference play.
After landing AJ Storr, Zeke Mayo, and Rylan Griffen in the transfer portal, Kansas was ranked as the No. 1 team in the 2024-25 preseason AP Top 25 men’s college basketball poll. However, as the season progressed, so did the Jayhawks’ slide down the rankings.
Although being named a seven seed in the upcoming tournament, Kansas could consider themselves a bit fortunate with the draw.
Kansas will play against Arkansas (21-13, 8-10), who have struggled mightily in John Calipari’s first season as the head coach.
The Razorbacks’ roster was reliant on the transfer portal, which brought in Johnell Davis (transferred from FAU), D.J. Wagner (transferred from Kentucky), Jonas Aidoo (transferred from Tennessee), and Adou Thiero (transferred from Kentucky).
Davis broke out during his final two seasons at Florida Atlantic, averaging 14.1 points on 48.7% from the field, leading the program to the Final Four that season. The fifth-year guard followed up that campaign with an even better season, scoring 18.2 points per game, while shooting 47.5% from the field.
Under Calipari, Davis has failed to live up to lofty expectations, as his scoring output dropped significantly to 11.2 points per contest. The 6’4″, 210-pound guard also struggled mightily from the field, shooting 38% from the field and 32.2% from beyond the arc.
All that being said, these two teams are very similar, but Self has a more recent track record of producing success in the tournament, leading the Jayhawks to a national title in 2022. Meanwhile, Calipari has not reached a Sweet 16 since the 2018-19 season.
It can also be argued that Kansas is outright better than Arkansas, and Vegas views it that way, as the Jayhawks are currently favored by 4.5 points.
In addition, if Kansas was to prevail on Thursday, St. John’s will most likely be the opponent waiting on other side in the second round.
St. John’s (30-4, 18-2) is clearly one of the top teams entering the tournament, but one glaring weakness this unit possesses is three-point shooting.
The Red Storm shot 30% from beyond the arc this season, ranking 346th out of 352 Division I programs. In addition, St. John’s shoots 45% from the field (161st in the country) and 68.9% from the free throw line (289th in the country.
St. John’s is a physical, tenacious team that excels at creating second-chance opportunities off the glass, but it is a unit that can allow its opponents to stay within striking distance.
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Kansas avoided Tennessee and Alabama, who are both more likely to blow the Jayhawks out of the water.
If you told Self and his squad which two seeds they would prefer to see in their region, it would be Michigan State and St. John’s. However, Tom Izzo has been able to lead the Spartans into deep runs in March despite being undermanned compared to other programs.
This is not to say the Jayhawks should be favored over the Red Storm in a potential second-round matchup, but they could pose issues for Rick Pitino and St. John’s.
Kansas has clearly been a major disappointment this season, but there is a reason this team was viewed as a favorite to cut down the nets before the start of the season.
The talent and pedigree are there. The Jayhawks are arguably the most dangerous seven-seed in the entire tournament. Kansas’s ceiling in this tournament is reaching the Sweet 16, and this draw gives them the best shot at getting past the first weekend.
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