March Madness Future Bets: Sweet 16 Sleepers, Region Winners, and More!

Everyone wants to nail the March Madness sleepers. It makes you feel like the smartest fan in the room and gives you a boost in the standings, but for every Cinderella that you nail, there are a few misses that offset your savvy selection.

My goal through the first week of the tournament is pretty simple: damage control. If I can make it out of the first two days with 14 Sweet 16 teams left, I’m happy with where I stand, even if my raw point total is lagging.

In that vein, let’s look at some of the best picks and betting values when it comes to making it through the first two rounds.

March Madness Sweet 16: Picks and Predictions

It should go without saying that picking teams to qualify for the Sweet 16 is not as simple as picking the teams you power rank the highest. That can be the case, but you’re doing things wrong if you’re not adjusting for the path you project each team to have to navigate.

No. 2 seed Alabama, for example, doesn’t grade out as an elite team for me, but because they will not have to go through a team that ranks as a top-40 team in this field by my metrics, they profile as a safe bet.

One of the best freshman in the country 📠@AlabamaMBB‘s Labaron Philon couldn’t be stopped vs. Kentucky, tying his career-high 21 points 😤 pic.twitter.com/lFr6WM7eWW

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) March 15, 2025

No. 8 seed Gonzaga is undoubtedly the team that will jump out at you when it comes to these advance rates. Most people view 8-9 [seed] games as little more than coin flips, and then it is a truly uphill battle against the top seed.

But that’s not the case here. The Zags are a 6.5-point favorite against No. 9 seed Georgia on Thursday and project well from a skills standpoint against No. 1 seed Houston, assuming that the Cougars take care of business against No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville.

Houston wants to slow you down and bet on their defensive efficiency. There’s a time and a place for that—it’s just not against Mark Few’s group. Gonzaga may not be as talented as they’ve been in years past, but you don’t want to get into an efficiency battle with a historically strong assist-to-turnover squad with plenty of big-game experience.

My rate isn’t in line with Vegas, and I’m OK with that. Houston is +135 to win this region, while Gonzaga is +1300. I dive deeper into their profile here, but they’ve won nine of 10 and profile well for this time of year and in this specific matchup

The other teams at the very top of my board are closer to what you might assume. Cinderella candidates No. 12 seeds Colorado State and Liberty crack the list, while everyone in the tough-to-gauge South region sees their odds suppressed due to the tightly ranked nature of those teams.

Which Teams Could Be Cinderella? A Look At Potential Bracket Busters

Something I found interesting in going through this exercise was the disparity in the three seeds. In theory, these teams have a pretty clear path to meeting the two seeds in the Sweet 16, but that’s not the case.

As you can see (below), Texas Tech and Kentucky grade very well. Spoiler alert: I have both in my Final Four, but the other two fail to even make this graphic.

• Wisconsin: 40.18% (19th-best)
• Iowa State: 24.7% (23rd-best)

That Cyclone grade is before adjusting much for the absence of minutes leader Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG).

March Madness is a game, and it’s important to remember that. We can get as in-depth as we want with personnel matchups and out-of-bounds play-calling, but remember that you are trying to pick games at a higher rate than your competition, and that path matters as much as anything.

Here is how I handicap the race for the second week of the tournament. If you’re curious, Texas A&M and Memphis are the lowest-seeded teams in the first six lines.

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