March Madness South Region Breakdown: Will Top-Seeded Auburn Make the Final Four?

The South region is home to the tournament’s top overall seed in the Auburn Tigers, a team that put together a borderline historic resume prior to stumbling to the finish line. Are their recent struggles enough of a reason to pivot when looking for a representative from this group of teams or should we value the five-month sample as a whole?

March Madness Picks: South Region

I think both things can be true – we can be concerned about what we’ve seen recently while still carrying ultra-high expectations for Bruce Pearl’s bunch. Johni Broome would be the National Player of the Year front-runner in most seasons and he gives this team an elevated floor with his versatility. With 163 games on his collegiate resume, he’s impossible to rattle, and while he has moments of time where he settles, his tenacity of over 40 minutes is something the Tigers can count on, and few can match.

"What's the way you would try to stop yourself?"

"Send three."

Johni Broome with the line of the day. pic.twitter.com/b7PKGqPDL0

— Vince Wolfram (@vincewolfram15) March 15, 2025

As good as he is, he’s far from a one man band and that is why I think this team is correctly identified as the favorite to come out of this region (stay tuned – they aren’t advancing to the finals for me). The draw is an interesting one and, to be honest, it’s terrifying.

In Round 2, I’ve got them facing Creighton, my top-ranked team on the 8-9 line in this tournament and a team who, on short rest, I think has the pieces to give this team trouble. We’ve seen opponents load up on Auburn’s guards and ask Broome to do it all – he’s plenty capable of doing that, but a second game in three days against Ryan Kalkbrenner isn’t exactly the cake walk a one-seed is looking for.

I believe that the Bluejays have every chance to stun the nation, but how it’s a fine line to walk. They’ve shown a low floor and I don’t think the Tigers have that in their profile. The concern here is that I don’t grade the four (Texas A&M) or five (Michigan) seeds in this region as much of a threat – that means that I’m advancing the winner of Auburn/Creighton straight to the Elite Eight. The top seed gets the slight edge there for two reasons: their defensive edge over the Bluejays and their edge in expected win equity in Round 1.

I mentioned a lack of confidence in Michigan and Texas A&M – my bracket is going to reflect that in a big way. I’ve already locked in bets against the spread in those games and am likely to layer upsets, something I rarely do.

UC San Diego and Yale have above-average defenses that pass at as high a seed-adjusted rate as anyone in this tournament. I expect the favorites in both of those games to have their moments, but in a 40-minute marathon, I think the double-digit seeds offer more consistency.

For the record, a UC San Diego and Yale moneyline parlay paid +705 on the opening lines.

Iowa State will operate without Keshon Gilbert, and while that muddies the first two rounds in the middle of the South, it ultimately opens up a pretty clear path to a 1-2 matchup in the Elite Eight.

MORE: March Madness Cinderella Picks

I’m comfortable advancing the favorites in the South and the East—it gets a little wild in the bottom half of the bracket.

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