There’s a reason that sportsbooks push parlays so hard – they are a long-term losing proposition for most. That said, if you believe you have an edge, it can make sense to tie your favorite wagers together.
It’s rare that I find spots I feel this good about, so I’m pulling the trigger on this +934 (DraftKings) ticket, understanding that I am playing all of these bets by themselves as well, allowing me to secure a minor profit if two of these three bets (two singles and an SGP) cash, even with the parlay falling flat.
March Madness: Soppe Saturday Parlay
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but your bankroll could be. The scheduling committee has even done us a favor – none of these games are going to start before 5:15 p.m. ET, and because a few of these bets share a region, your focus will not have to be split as we (hopefully) progress through this wager.
Here’s our favorite parlay for today’s matchups. 👀 pic.twitter.com/WtFdKAJRba
— College Sports Network (@CFN365) March 22, 2025
Get your chores done early and lock in.
First Leg: Michigan Moneyline
Michigan made winning on Thursday night look about as hard as you can after coming out hot and posting a 15-point lead, but they survived the UC San Diego charge and are one of a few teams that are capable of making a real run after being pushed during their first game (Texas Tech and Alabama among the others).
We know they are comfortable with their two-big set, and while it may seem counterintuitive, that has resulted in plenty of tempo (11th of the 68 tournament qualifiers in possessions per game).
My theory there is that they are comfortable in their ability to clean the glass with their front court, thus allowing their guards to position themselves to catch-and-run.
That’ll play tonight.
Their average pace is 6.2% faster than that of the Aggies and if they hold the advantage at the level that I believe, they’ll be responsible for dictating tempo. This season, Texas A&M has lost five of their eight fastest games – they’ve lost five of 25 games otherwise.
But that’s just the start.
The Aggies pay their bills by dominating on the glass. Yes, they hold an edge over the Wolverines in terms of season-long rebound rate, but I have very few concerns about Michigan at least competing on the boards with Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf (14’1” and 500 pounds of human mass between them).
Favored Texas A&M is just 5-5 when they fail to grab over 53% of misses, a rate that an opponent has posted just four times in 35 games against Michigan this season.
Let’s keep pulling on statistical trends.
Even if you stan for the Aggies, you have to acknowledge that they are limited on the offensive end. That’s being kind. In this era, a team with limited upside on this side of the court is dangerous, and I very much expect this flaw to be prohibitive in this spot against a versatile defense.
For the season, Texas A&M averages 1.074 points per possession — Michigan is 23-2 this year when keeping the opposition to that number or lower, and that’s saying something, given the level of competition they’ve played this season.
They won four games of that ilk against Purdue/Wisconsin this season, two teams with elite guard play and a top-25 nationally ranking in assist-to-turnover rate.
Texas A&M ranks 280th.
Yes, you read that right. That puts them in the same tier as Bethune and Howard, two schools that I’m guessing you can’t name the mascots of and may not be able to tell me when time zone they located.
Their offensive floor is terrifying, and for a handsy defense (sixth-highest foul rate in March Madness this year) that is an aggressive whistle away from sending Michigan to the line to get easy points on a consistent basis — I’m thrilled to get the chance to fade them at this price.
Second Leg: Creighton +9.5
I talked about this game when the matchup was official and while there’s been a little dip in value, I’m sticking with my angle at the current cost.
If you wanted to really juice up the ticket, you ask the Bluejays to top the tournament’s top overall seed, but as part of a four-leg parlay, I’m fine with taking the safer route, understanding that the payout is going to be strong either way.
Third Leg: Auburn Under 80.5 Points
This is obviously correlated to the prior bet, but it helps juice up the ticket and is, in my eyes, a near requirement for Creighton to keep this game tight. The results for Auburn has been shaky of late and their offensive production has been at the core of those struggles.
- Last 10 games: 1.17+ points per possession three times
- First 24 games: 1.17+ points per possession 18 times
Over that recent stretch, their 3-point rate has been up while their free-throw rate has plummeted, and this Ryan Kalkbrenner-centric defense doesn’t profile as one to “get right” against.
Opponents have been asking Johni Broome to beat them, opting to shut off the water of the guards and see what the big man can do over the course of 40 minutes.
I expect the Bluejays to follow that blueprint and potentially execute it at a higher level than most. They operate at a slightly slower pace than Auburn, lowering the possession projection and further helping our stance.
Fourth Leg: Tennessee -4.5
Let’s bring it home!
In theory, depending on when that Creighton game wraps, you might get a chance to hedge here, so be aware of them (I’ll offer ideas on X at KyleSoppePFN if this opportunity presents itself), but I’m tempted to let it ride barring a window opening where there’s a big opportunity to middle.
UCLA took Utah State’s lunch money on Thursday night, a result I didn’t project. They were slow out of the gate, but over the final 34:06, they outscored a live Aggies team 62-37, using some hot shooting and stingy defense to fuel the 25-point win.
Impressive? Yes.
Predictive for this matchup? I say no.
2025 March Madness Field Rankings
- Utah State: 54th in foul rate, 54th in defense and 41st in rebounding
- Tennessee: 24th in foul rate, 10th in defense and 16th in rebounding
This is a different animal and one that projects well against the Bruins. UCLA makes their bones on the defensive end, but, against a more challenging schedule, Tennessee’s grades out better.
A 50-40-90 shooting slash is the peak of efficiency for a player – we saw UCLA do it as a team on Thursday night, and I think the impressive nature of that showing is influencing this line more than it should.
- Score Projection: Tennessee wins 68-60
My numbers generally come in conservative around these matchups, and they still suggest that the opening line was a few points light.
In the last 50 years, Zakai Zeigler is, per Elias, the sixth player w/12 PTS, 12 AST and 0 TOV in NCAA Tournament play, joining Colorado’s McKinley Wright IV (2021), UCLA’s Earl Watson (2000), Bradley’s Jim Les (1986), Indiana’s Isiah Thomas (1981) & Missouri’s Larry Drew (1980). pic.twitter.com/BRyAkZTKIW
— Tennessee Stats & Info (@Vol_Stats) March 21, 2025
UCLA is the 17th worst rebounding team in this field, a flaw that Utah State was never going to be able to exploit.
That’s unlikely to be the case tonight, and the Cols are 24-1 this season when out-rebounding the opposition (otherwise: 4-6) and if you’re willing to take the moneyline, I think you’re willing to take them against this spread (25 of 28 wins have come by 5+ points and the stability of their backcourt allows them to extend leads late as opposed to allow their opponent to show signs of life).
I could dive deep into the advanced numbers, but why complicate something that is reasonably simple? The Bruins foul and don’t make their free throws (not top-55 in this field in either stat), while the Volunteers rarely foul and convert from the stripe (top-30 in both).
Free throws are something we are taught at a young age, and that’s for a reason. They are “free,” and in a competitive environment, you have to take advantage of gifts like that.
Well, Tennessee’s top three scorers combine to make 79.1% of their freebies, a rate that is more than three percentage points above the best FT shooter among UCLA’s top six scoring threats.
Whether you believe that the Vols control this game from start to finish or that it’s tight late, Tennessee has plenty of outs to close this parlay for us.
On Thursday, they were +10 from the FT line and held a 3:29 stretch where they held Wofford off the scoreboard – if either of those things occurs tonight (and the first three legs come through, of course), we are living good tomorrow!
Final Odds: +934, DraftKings
Maybe you had a tough Round 1. Maybe your mortgage payment comes out on the 22nd of every month. Maybe you have an expensive spouse who is coming off of a tough work week and deserves to be treated like royalty.
Maybe I’m the only one who checks all three of those boxes, but I’m guessing you can relate to at least some of it, and this parlay could go a long way to making this an enjoyable weekend!
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