Let’s be clear – this isn’t the Gonzaga Bulldogs we thought we’d be getting this season. Mark Few’s bunch was sixth in the final poll this preseason, and that optimism was fueled with a dismantling of then eighth-ranked Balyor at The Kennel (101-63), but the regular season had far more swings than we are accustomed to.
It’ll be interesting to see how the public treats a former unknown program that, for younger generations, is something of a blueblood. Are the Zags a popular pick because of their name recognition, or are they left for dead due to our expectations?
March Madness: The Case For The Gonzaga Bulldogs
Value the basketball. It’s like eating your vegetables. We are all told to do it at a young age, largely ignore it, and, as we get older, we appreciate its value.
It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that the assist-to-turnover rate is correlated with success this time of year, but if it does, let’s run through some of the surprises in the early rounds last year.
- Yale upset Auburn in a game where Auburn had more turnovers than assists
- BYU (vs. Duquense) and St. Mary’s (vs. Grand Canyon) had more turnovers than their lesser-thought-of opponent
- JMU beat Wisconsin in a game in which the Badgers committed a season-high 19 turnovers
- Oregon posted a better assist-to-turnover ratio than South Carolina in their upset victory
- Oakland busted brackets by having more assists and fewer turnovers than Kentucky
- NC State made their magical run – they had a better assist-to-turnover rate than Texas Tech, their victim in Round 1, and shocked Marquette and Duke later on, those storied programs, both top-20 assist-to-turnover teams for the season, combined for 19 assists and 18 turnovers against the Wolfpack.
Buying this train of thought yet? Eight of the past nine Madness champions have been a top-30 assist-to-turnover team in the country, and while I’m not picking the Zags to win it all, you get the point.
I love what the guard play looks like for the ‘Zags, but it’s what senior Graham Ike brings to the table that gives this team more hope than their seed line suggests. The 6’9” forward has over 100 games on his collegiate resume and has been an impact player at Gonzaga for two years after two seasons at Wyoming.
Graham Ike Season Stat Line
- Minutes: 22.6
- Points: 17.1
- Rebounds: 7.5
- FG%: 59.6%
- FT%: 79.7%
Graham Ike through contact for @ZagMBB 💪@MyCreditUnion1 #WCChoops Championship on ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/sc0NEOIZCb
— WCC Basketball (@WCChoops) March 11, 2025
Ike has proven his ability to sustain this level of production for two seasons now and we really have no reason to think that chances during this month of madness. Few has built a team around his standout big man and while that carries a ceiling that is less than elite, the floor is far higher than teams that the field has ranked in this range.
What do I mean by that? Well, the Bulldogs aren’t likely to go cold from inside of the arc (57.8% on two-point shots, 12th best in the nation), and shooting variance isn’t as big a concern for this team as it is for most (315th in three-point rate).
When it comes to being led by a player that routinely gives us stat lines like that of Ike, there’s a lot to like. Here are the recent examples of the team with a strong assist-to-turnover rank and an offensive threat similar to Ike in terms of a profile (15+ points on at least 55% shooting from the field and 75% from the line):
Graham Ike, Gonzaga (2025)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 58th (0.983)
- Madness result: Sweet 16 loss to 1-seed Purdue (eventual runner up)
- Beat 4-seed Kansas in R2 by 21 points (4.5-point favorite, won the second half by 22 points)
Adama Sanogo, UConn (2024)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 29th
- Madness result: CHAMPION (6-0 against the spread)
- He shot 66.7% FG during the title run with 18 points or 10 rebounds in all six contests
Azuolas Tubelis, Arizona (2023)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 21st
- Madness result: Upset by Princeton in R1
- Team: 13 turnovers against 10 assists (Tubels had six turnovers)
- His usage patterns were different on that teak — Gonzaga doesn’t put Ike in those spots (one turnover every 14.6 minutes across his two seasons with the program)
Jalen Slawson, Furman (2023)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 14th
- Madness result: Upset 4-seed UVA in Round 1 before losing to SDSU in Round 2
- His efficiency (5-6 on 2’s and got to the line seven times), resulted in Furman scoring 68 points against the 42nd-best defense in the nation (UVA allowed 68 points once in 11 games entering the tourney)
Kobe Brown, Missouri (2023)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 18th
- Madness result: 1-1, upset by upstart Princeton
- Shooting variance — 27.3% from 3 in the loss, outscored by 18 points from downtown (lost the game by 15)
- That was how that Missouri team played (48th in 3Pr that season), a style the 2025 Zags don’t mirror in the slightest
- Shooting variance — 27.3% from 3 in the loss, outscored by 18 points from downtown (lost the game by 15)
Ryan Kalbrenner, Creighton (2023)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 32nd
- Madness result: Lost to SDSU in Elite Eight (as a six seed
- 3-1 ATS in that tourney (beat that Princeton team that beat Kobe Brown’s Tigers)
Creighton got zero bench points and still never trailed by more than four points
Hunter Dickinson, Michigan (2022)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 58th
- Madness result: Sweet 16 loss to Villanova (Michigan: 11-seed)
- Shooting variance resulted in the defeat: 34.9% of 2’s and 50% FT
Ryan Davis, Vermont (2022)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 7th
- Madness result: Lost to 4-seed Arkansas (R1)
- Covered the spread, four-minute scoring drought in the first half — they outscored a team that went to the Elite 8 71-66 across the other 36 minutes
Tanner Groves, Eastern Washington (2021)
- Assists-to-turnover national rank: 38th
- Madness result: Loss to 3-seed Kansas (R1)
- Covered the spread and were up eight points at intermission
Those are pretty acceptable results, especially if you’re willing to overlook the variance that eliminated some of those teams, an outcome that isn’t as likely to occur (in the wrong direction) for this Gonzaga team as others.
KEEP READING: Mark Few Salary, Contract, and Net Worth
You can dismiss this team because of its low seed and struggles against high-end competition this season—I refuse to do so for a team with this statistical profile.
Another Sweet 16 berth? That’s how I have it.
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