March Madness never disappoints. This year has featured plenty of chalk results, but the predictable results haven’t come at the expense of exciting games and dramatic moments.
It seems like a good bet that we will have more big-time plays and game-altering decisions. That said, these four teams have given us plenty of data points, and I’m leveraging all of that information to craft my weekend betting card.
Final Four Betting Preview
No. 1 Seed Florida vs. No.1 Seed Auburn (Saturday, 6:09p ET)
- DraftKings Line: Florida -2.5
- CSN Line: Auburn -2.2
- FanDuel Implied Championship Probability, Florida: 27.8%
- CSN Implied Championship Probability, Florida: 22.6%
- FanDuel Implied Championship Probability, Auburn: 16.7%
- CSN Implied Championship Probability, Auburn: 21.1%
Yes, we have four one-seeds remaining for just the second time in the history of this great event, but we were awfully close, on multiple occasions, to that not being the case.
Auburn trailed nine-seed Creighton in the second half and owned a 15.5% win probability (per ESPN) with under 13 minutes to play against Michigan in the Sweet 16.
If you think that’s cutting it close, let me introduce you to a Florida team that is still breathing despite a sub-30% win percentage with under four minutes left against eight-seed UConn and three-seed Texas Tech.
Are these teams lucky to have life, or do they possess the ever-evasive clutch gene that allows them to perform better in these types of spots than most?
The answer, as always, is somewhere in the middle, but for these two teams specifically, I believe we have two different profiles despite similar results.
If those graphs weren’t labeled, I’d be able to sell you on either one of them as a study of the emotional swings of your typical moody teenager. Some good, some bad, but all together, remarkably inconsistent and impossible to predict.
Are they going to wake up ready to accomplish their dreams, or are they going to be annoyed that it’s turkey sandwich day in the cafeteria?
Notta clue.
That’s what we’ve gotten from Florida up to this point. We love our moody teenagers, but we are holding on for dear life on a daily basis, not knowing what the next 24 minutes, let alone 24 hours, will hold.
The Gators are capable of beating any team in the country, that much we know, but to me, that’s a little like arguing that anybody in a high school class could run for class president.
Technically, it’s true, but do you want to bet on volatility?
I haven’t even mentioned the free-throw accuracy yet. This team entered the tournament ranked 51st of 68 teams in FT%, and it almost cost them against UConn. But, in true moody teenager fashion, they’ve been all over the place.
In 40 minutes against the Huskies, they missed 12 of 34 freebies, and if you lost points for missing woefully short, it would have been worse. In their other three games? 13 misses of 81 attempts.
Make it make sense.
My working theory is that these two teams take on the personality of their best player. Walton Clayton Jr. and Johni Broome have proven themselves as true game-wreckers, players who can take over at a moment’s notice and put their respective teams on their backs.
I actually think it’s possible that, in a one-game setting, Clayton is the owner of the higher ceiling.
But that comes with the price of having the lower floor.
He’s overly aggressive on the defensive end and seemingly vibes based on the offensive end. His athleticism and feel for the game can mask the risk in these pillars at times, but it’s a dangerous way to live.
Multiple times last week (in both games, though the more glaring examples came in the Texas Tech nailbiter), he jumped a pick-and-role, gunning for a game-breaking steal but also opening up a savvy ball-handler for a high-leverage spot that wouldn’t exist if guarded more traditionally.
On the broadcast against the Red Raiders, he was also lauded for his blocked shots. Yes, they were impressive, but coming out at a shooter 100 miles per hour because he was late on a transition isn’t exactly the most sustainable game plan.
And what if the shooter is more patient and attacks the overly aggressive closeout instead of settling for a jumper (Auburn ranks 138th in three-point rate, making them more likely to look to get to the rim than a Texas Tech team that ranked 63rd)?
Clayton is also a gifted scorer, and the back-dribble three that gave Florida the late lead on Saturday night are signs of that. But again, are plays like that sticky? I’d say no.
KEEP READING: Auburn vs. Florida Prediction: Johni Broome Looks To Lead Tigers to First Title
More concerning to me is the fact that the driver of this offense has more turnovers than assists over the course of four games. He’s gotten away with it up to this point, but Auburn’s defense has been 8.2% better on a per-possession basis in the tournament than during the regular season.
Don’t worry, Gator Nation, not all is doom and gloom. Your three-point percentage has improved each game this season, and you’ve cleared 10 offensive rebounds in all four contests.
You’ve scored at least 40 points in seven of eight halves during tournament play, and that puts you in a position to advance to the title game thanks to Auburn’s offense being 9% less efficient over the past two weeks than they have been all season.
But yes, I’ve got my concerns.
That’s not to say that the Tigers are perfect – they aren’t. They have this Johni Broome injury to potentially navigate, and their next leading scorer this season (Chad Baker-Mazara) is shooting 27.5% from the field in the NCAA tournament (4-of-18 from the field last week across the two wins).
They haven’t been as run-reliant as the Gators, but they have had to win three of four-second halves by double digits to get to this point.
If Broome is right, his profile of stability could be the difference. While Clayton’s style of play can result in (sometimes organized) chaos, Broome is often a steadying force that gives this team the same thing on most nights.
In 19 of his 26 games with 28+ minutes (I wanted to rule out some of the blowouts, hence the minute’s floor), he’s attempted 12-18 shots from the field. He’s led this team in scoring 22 times this season, has pulled down 13.3 rebounds per game in this tournament, and is calm when pressed, thanks to 167 games of Division-I experience.
I mentioned Clayton’s ceiling and that he needs to reach it if Florida is going to advance. I do think his 40-minute upside is greater than that of Broome, if for no other reason than he handles the ball more often, but don’t take that to mean that the likely Player of the Year runner-up lacks take-over ability.
- 20 points
- 7 rebounds
- 2 assists
- 2 blocks
That’s an elite night for any collegiate big man, and Broome has checked all four of those boxes on 10 occasions this season. In Florida’s four losses this season, they’ve coughed up 54% shooting from inside the arc, and given that this Auburn offense wants to work from the inside out, they have every chance to replicate that blueprint.
Broome’s projectable production (assuming health) gives Auburn the slight edge, and if we are playing the large sample size game, as opposed to the version of Florida we saw over the weekend that makes all of their free throws, there’s a path for the Tigers to finish the deal.
The Tigers entered the tournament as the second most foul-prone team in terms of free throws allowed per field goal attempt. I typically build this into my research as a negative, but I’m not so sure that’ll be the case on Saturday.
The Gators have been a cash cow for bettors this season – unless you send them to the stripe with regularity.
That’s not a tiny sample – that’s the data produced from their 13 highest FTA/FGA games this season. The math suggests that if you send the Gators to the line (and you’re not Texas Tech), you’ve positioned yourselves well. The data also suggests that the Tigers are too handsy and are at risk of backing into this trend.
Auburn’s season-long numbers (from assist-to-turnover rate to rebounding to shot distribution) have largely been reflected in what they’ve produced over the past two weeks, while Florida has more of a random number generator feel to them. You can try to catch lightening in a bottle, but my money is always going to be on stability.
Score Projection: Auburn wins 83-80
No. 1 Seed Duke vs. No. 1 Seed Houston (Saturday, 8:49p ET)
- DraftKings Line: Duke -4.5
- CSN Line: Duke -7.8
- FanDuel Implied Championship Probability, Duke: 48.8%
- CSN Implied Championship Probability, Duke: 42.8%
- FanDuel Implied Championship Probability, Houston: 20%
- CSN Implied Championship Probability, Houston: 13.8%
These teams are a combined 60 games over .500 this season and have looked like title contenders for extended stretches. There will be NBA players all over the court, and with that level of talent, any result is possible, but the numbers certainly point in a certain direction—and that direction is even stronger than the betting markets suggest.
Game-high 17 points for K2pic.twitter.com/XImGJirckK
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 30, 2025
Duke is the proud owner of the second-best March Madness profile I have on file, and I worry that might be too low. In relation to this field, they entered tournament play as a top-5 quad in rebound rate, assist-to-turnover rate, and defense.
In short, they are as well-rounded as they get, and what they’ve done over the past two weeks only solidifies that thought.
The star power has been – well, powerful. Tyrese Proctor is averaging as many made triples per game as he has total turnovers in his 128 minutes of tournament action (four). The Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel duo is largely unstoppable, something that is even more the case when they are shooting a combined 86.4% from the stripe over these four games.
Oh, and that impressive FT%? It comes up short of Khaman Maluach’s conversion rate from this field thus far (20-of-23, 87%).
If all of that fails, we have a slow-moving team that has been better than its season average on the defensive side of the ball in the majority of its games for more than five weeks now.
Other than that, Duke is your ordinary, run-of-the-mill team.
Houston’s defense is its calling card. They can score when pressed, but they entered the tournament with the second-most efficient defensive unit and have shown the ability to clamp down at elite levels over the past week.
Tennessee entered the Elite Eight as a high-powered offense that was in form. Against Kentucky, just two days earlier, the Vols scored 37 points during an extended outburst in the first half, a pace that, if extended for a full 40 minutes, was 103.5 points.
That same offense, with NBA-level talent, couldn’t even generate looks at the rim against Houston, never mind legitimate scoring opportunities. This defense is strong enough to win two more games and cut down the nets on Monday night, but we are in the business of evaluating the most likely outcomes, not just the plausible outcomes.
Tournament Field Rankings, Assist-to-Turnover Rate
- Houston: 50th
- Duke: 5th
This singular stat, of course, doesn’t dictate the future, but it is the biggest discrepancy we have in this matchup among the most predictive metrics, so it deserves extra attention.
We could argue to what level this advantage will rest with Duke, but all signs point to the Blue Devils holding, at the very least, some sort of edge on this front. This season, 10 times has Houston’s opponent had a better assist-to-turnover rate than them and the results in those contests. In those games …
- ATS: 2-8
- All other games: 18-9-1
- Unders: 5-4-1
- All other games: 17-11
Those are pretty damning numbers, and if you shrink the sample, they only get worse. They’ve failed to cover each of their past five such instances and under tickets are 5-1-1 in the past seven. In short, the Blue Devils hold a massive edge in a metric tied to success this time of year and even more closely correlated with Cougar results this season.
Looking at the Duke side of that coin only strengthens the case—they are 7-1 ATS in their eight lowest opponents assist percentage games, a metric that Houston ranked dead last in compared to the other 67 teams in this field.
Houston is accustomed to being the bully on the block (13+ offensive rebounds and at least a nine-shot advantage in all four games this tournament). They take your lunch money at some point early in the year, assert their dominance, and hope the school year runs out before you develop enough of a backbone to stand up for yourself.
No, I wasn’t a scrawny kid who would bolt from classroom to classroom to avoid vulnerable times in the halls – why do you ask?
READ MORE: Who Will Win March Madness? Why This Obvious Team Is the Statistically Sound Pick
In Round 1, Houston played SIU Edwardsville for the right to the last name “Cougars,” and that went about as well as expected. The top seed fell behind 4-2 before scoring 17 of the next 19 points—lunch money acquired.
In the Round of 32, more of the same. Not the exact same, as Gonzaga had some fight back, but at the end of the day, the bully sending an early message (10-2 to open the game) gave them the leverage they needed.
In the Sweet 16, Purdue held its own. With nearly a week to prepare, the Boilermakers were confident when their mom dropped them off at school. They had a plan and knew what the bully wanted to do.
It was cute, but it didn’t last, and that’s the thing about teams like this—they wear on you. Purdue scored nine points over a nearly seven-and-a-half-minute stretch in the second half, and while they battled, it wasn’t enough. They let their guard down, and a bully is never going to miss an opportunity.
In Round Four, another short rest spot, the opponent wasn’t ready. Tennessee had seen big, bad foes all season, but not one built like these Cougars, and they wilted under the pressure (six points in the first 11:49 of the game).
In all of these instances, the bully was never truly uncomfortable. Gonzaga technically had a shot to tie late, and it took a baseline out-of-bounds give-and-go to advance past Purdue, but Houston was working from a place of power more often than not, and that allowed them to execute their plan.
Duke has trailed for 6.6% of the minutes they’ve been on the court for this tournament.
I’m not suggesting that they dominate this game from start to finish—I’m simply saying that this game is going to look different. We saw this Houston team have to be on the defensive twice in an eight-day stretch in the middle of this season, and if those games prove predictive, this is going to be a long evening.
January 25 at Kansas: An 11-2 run before the second media timeout had the bully wobbling. Yes, they found their footing and yes, they ended up earning the win, but they had no business in doing so.
- Down six with 70 seconds left in regulation
- Down six with 10 seconds left in the first overtime
February 1 vs. Texas Tech: A 13-5 run in the first half knocked the bully off of their equilibrium, and while they fought, they never led in the overtime period.
If you’re picking Houston in this game, you’re either trying to be different or ignoring the predictive data that we’ve seen over the past five months.
Or both.
Maybe the low turnover rate (26 through four games) can allow this team to overachieve, or the unwavering confidence of players like Emanuel Sharp (five-of-17 on 3’s before draining dagger after dagger on Sunday) elevates them above the projections – but if you’re in the business of playing the odds, this Duke team is who you want holding your money.
Score Projection: Duke wins 70-62
**Stay tuned – player props and much more are coming your way as we prepare for the final three games of another great college basketball season
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