Contrarian bracket filler otters may not love it when chalk advances, but in the case of the second wave of Elite Eight games, it’s left us with two phenomenal matchups for the right to go to San Antonio.
Do the higher seeds continue to advance?
Elite Eight Day 2 Betting Strategies
Game 1: No. 1 Seed Houston vs. No. 2 Seed Tennessee (2:20 p.m. ET)
Math doesn’t always play out, but pre-tournament, we listed the types of profiles destined to make deep runs, and the Elite Eight from this year showed well on that list.
The Vols are very much on that list, and they’ve impressed in a big way up to this point. They’ve established themselves early (seven plus point advantage entering halftime in all three games), a nod to strong coaching and an asset for a game played with only one day of rest.
I was encouraged to see them turn the ball over just eight times on Friday night after being careless in the second round against UCLA with 18 giveaways. You’re aware of the stars on this roster, and they will undoubtedly have to steer the ship. Zakai Zeigler has a pair of double-doubles so far, and I’ve loved his well-roundedness by averaging two made triples and two steals per game in tournament play.
He’s also gotten to the line 44 times across Tennessee’s six postseason games, a sign to me that he is more than happy to assume the featured role should Chaz Lanier not be able to get going. As good as those two are, could the fate of this team rest in the hands of Jordan Gainey?
In his last three games against high-end competition (Auburn and Florida during the SEC Tournament and Kentucky on Friday night), he’s logged 88 minutes with just four turnovers.
If the senior can continue to be a steadying force, that allows the star power on this roster to be at their best, and that will be required if this team wants to play two more games.
Can they knock off Houston?
The Cougars are a one-seed for a reason and have shown a glimpse of that potential. They shut off Purdue’s water on Friday night, holding them to 29.6% shooting from deep and their eight players not named Braden Smith to five assists across 160 combined minutes of action.
Their offensive output can be spotty at times, and that could prove prohibitive against an elite defense like this, but there’s also a chance that they’ve developed through struggle. They entered this tournament ranked dead last, behind the play-in teams and everyone else, in the percentage of buckets that were assisted on.
Of course, scoring is more important than how the ball was put through the hoop, but history does suggest that the consistency that good passing teams own tends to do well this time of year. That flaw moved Houston down in my power rankings to be the clear-cut worst top seed, and while I stand by that grade, they’ve looked better of late.
Over their past two games, they’ve assisted on 67.3% of baskets (35-of-52), a massive step forward. L.J. Cryer’s struggle may have forced this team’s hand to explore more team-oriented solutions on that side of the floor, and if that sticks and he rebounds, this team can cover this spread and win two more games.
I’m skeptical.
We have a larger sample size of them struggling in this regard, and we’ve seen the offense crater at the worst possible times over the past week.
- Gonzaga was down 11 with 2.5 minutes left and had a shot for the tie
- Purdue was down 10 with seven left and 7 with 5.5 left … final possession game
If they continue to tempt fate with these late-game lapses, they will get picked off and won’t have to wait for next week. Their slow pace can work in their favor, as it did on Friday (Purdue took 52 shots one day after Alabama launched 51 three-points – that’s an extreme comparison, but you get the idea). Still, I worry that against a Tennessee team that doesn’t mind playing in the mud while having more top-level scoring at their disposal, the limited possession count could result in an extended drought that simply cannot be overcome.
I’ve got the Vols as a 3.6-point favorite, and that’s the inverse of where this line opened. I like the moneyline price plenty, but I’ll be hedging at some level by taking the points in a game. I’m not projecting either team to reach 70 points.
Score projection: Tennessee wins 64-60
Game 2: No. 1 Seed Auburn vs. No. 2 Seed Michigan State (5:05 p.m. ET)
Maybe I’m a basketball snob, but I get giddy whenever we get these “all-time coach vs. elite player” matchups with serious stakes. Tom Izzo’s resume more than speaks for itself, and he will have to slow down the Johni Broome machine if he wants an invite to San Antonio.
I think they could do it, but will they?
Sparty entered the tournament as the second-best rebounding team. Still, we haven’t seen them flex that muscle – they hold a modest 63-61 rebound advantage over their past two games, neither of which came against the quality of competition they will get in this spot.
Michigan State Rebound Rate By Round
- Round 1 vs. Bryant: 64.9%
- Round 2 vs. New Mexico: 52.5%
- Round 3 vs. Ole Miss: 47.3%
That’s not a trend, but I feel good about backing against Broome, a national Player of the Year candidate who averaged a double-double during the regular season and has been even better in tournament play (14.7 points and 13.0 rebounds). I will say that there are a handful of players still playing that I fear betting against more than Broome (1/10 from 3 and 7/16 from the line create potential issues), but in a game that I believe will be decided on the glass (the Tigers have 30 offensive rebounds over their past two games), he’s a tough fade.
Auburn’s profile is that of an elite passing team, and while we’ve seen that for the bulk of the season, 15 turnovers on Friday were concerning (16 total through the first two rounds). If you think that’s a blip and not the beginning of a larger issue, you’re backing the Tigers with confidence – if not, I’d look the other way. The profile of Michigan Statt passes the smell test. They are an atop-their team from the free-throw line,e and the fact that they’ve gotten to the stripe 42 more times than their opponents during tournament play is massive.
Equally as big has been shooting variance. We can argue all day about the validity of three-point defense in terms of opponent shooting percentage, but it can’t be overlooked that their opponents are 18-of-64 from deep through three games.
In this era, that wins. If it’s something that Izzo is scheming up to prohibit good looks from downtown, this team could well win three more games. I’m a little iffy on that, and with plenty of capable shooters on the other sideline for this game and remaining in the tournament at large, that’s a tough sell.
Coen Carr made his first career start Friday nig, ht and there is no denying the electricity he brings. However, we have seen four straight games when he plays 25+ minutes, and the game has come in under the projected total,l, and I don’t think that’s an accident. Slashing athletes like him offer as much defensive upside and offensive upside in a game where I expect the pace to be manageable, and I’m willing to bet on that continuing.
Jase Richardson is only a freshman,n and that explains the swings in play, but I have been encouraged by the fact that, despite some shooting inconsistencies, he has gotten to the free-throw line at an increasing rate as this tournament has worn on. He has only two turnovers in his 92 minute,s and if you told me that he had acoming-outt party in this spot, I’d 100% believe you.
I’m not calling for it, but I’d believe you.
What I think this game comes down to, after rebounding, is the play of Auburn’s Denver Jones. He scored 20 points on 13 shots in 35 minutes of work against the Boilermakers, and if he can add that sort of depth to this offense again, Auburnwillo looks deserving of the top overall seed. He totaled 23 points and 14 shots in 67 minutes through the first two rounds, and if that version reemerged, freshman star Tahaad Pettiford will assume a lot of responsibility.
KEEP READING: Michigan State vs. Auburn Prediction: Tigers Look to Claim a Ticket to the Final Four.
Trust Jones to alleviate some of that pressure and for Broome to wear down the Spartansoverf 40 minutes. Suppose Michigan State is getting bullied inside and having to take the ball out of the net. In that case, their guard-oriented attack is unlikely to get rolling, and that is why my number is higher than that of Vegas, favoring Auburn by a tick over eight points in this spot.
Score projection: Auburn wins 75-66
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