From 1975-2020, the Creighton Bluejays didn’t have a single March Madness Sweet 16 showing, but they’ve done it in three of the past four seasons.
They are facing an uphill battle to extend that streak (a 7-5 start to the season hurt their resume significantly, and stubbing their toe over the final month didn’t help), but it’s not out of the question, even with a problematic projected schedule.
March Madness: The Case for the Creighton Bluejays
I’ve designed my model to highlight profiles that generally have success this time of year. Simple. That’s not a unique goal, but we all go about it differently.
In any event, when you build something that has similar inputs on an annual basis, there are going to be some programs that, barring significant personnel change, always settle into the extremes for me—these schools either prioritize the numbers I believe in or deemphasize them, and they do it consistently.
Creighton has traditionally been on the positive side of my math under the leadership of Greg McDermott, and this year is no different. It’s worked out reasonably well of late, and my thought this preseason was that the addition of Pop Isaacs could pay off my years of optimism regarding this team.
The profile remains sound, but Isaacs has had multiple hip surgeries since transferring and hasn’t been in the mix since early December. I have no doubt that I’ll be using this space to talk about him next year, but the current ‘Jays are going to have to make noise with a tighter rotation than they had envisioned at the beginning of this season.
Enough about what could have been—let’s discuss what might be over the next week (or two?). Few teams in the country have their results as tied to two specific stats as Creighton, and they aren’t exactly the standard ones for basketball as we know it in 2025.
Rebound at an elite level
- 19-2 record when winning the rebound battle
Don’t get tricked into launching three’s
- 9-2 record under 45% of their shots come from distance
Some of those numbers are impacted by the game script, so there’s a level of a self-fulfilling prophecy at play here, but I’m encouraged by this team’s willingness to embrace who they are at the most important time.
This is the third straight season in which 7’1” center Ryan Kalkbrenner has averaged over 30 minutes, and they continue to lean into the rare inside-out template. It’s growth that us Creighton supporters are encouraged to see, and if the past two seasons serve as accurate data points, there’s more of it to come.
2023, sub-45% 3-point rate
- Regular season: 35.5% of games
- Postseason: 75% of games
2024, sub-45% 3-point rate
- Regular season: 61.3% of games
- Postseason: 100% of games
“We have to establish Kalkbrenner.”
Coach McDermott talks at the half.#GoJays x @cucoachmac pic.twitter.com/vZ7lgoHNn7
— Creighton Men’s Basketball (@BluejayMBB) March 15, 2025
Those postseason samples aren’t large by nature of the sample size, but those trends don’t happen by accident. If you want to combine those two data sets, we are talking sub-45% three-point rate in 30-of-62 regular season games (48.4%), compared to nine-of-10 in the postseason (90%).
I’m of the belief that this team wants their fate on the shoulders of Kalkbrenner and I expect we see even more of it with their season on the line because that’s been a developing trend and has correlated to success all season long.
It’s an old-school blueprint, and a dangerous one to employ in this era if you’re not doing it right. That said, it’s not unheard of. The Denver Nuggets do something similar in the NBA, and while there is no Nikola Jokic on the Bluejays, an interesting roster construction gives this team bracket-busting potential given their seed-line.
I mentioned the paint-to-perimeter nature of this offense with Kalkbrenner being the fulcrum. The skill set and, quite frankly, unabashed confidence of Steven Ashworth provide gravity on the offensive side of the floor, something that pushes this ceiling of this squad to a level that I wasn’t sure we’d see after Isaacs went down.
The gameplan is simple, and yet, it’s kind of beautiful. You may disagree, but my historic numbers continue to love it.
This is the fourth straight season in which the Bluejays rank top-3 in the field in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt. The defense hasn’t always been great, but with margins so thin this time of year, the ability to keep your opponents off the charity stripe has been tied to success at a higher than you’d think level.
Need evidence of the ceiling that comes with this profile?
Jan. 18: Won at then No. 14 UConn
- Despite 10 fewer FGA
- Despite Kalkbrenner and Ashworth combining for 8 FGM across 79 minutes
- Kalkbrenner had 10 rebounds, 6-6 FT
- Ashworth had 6 rebounds and 9 assists
Feb. 8: Beat then No. 11 Marquette
- Despite 21 fewer FGA, thanks in part to just four FTA allowed
- Despite Kam Jones (MU) scored 27 points and had six assists against one turnover
- Kalkbrenner: 8-9 FG with four blocks (just one foul)
In that win over the Golden Eagles, Jones was easily the best guard on the court (1.32 points per shot), and yet, the ’Jays never trailed by more than a bucket and closed by scoring 10 of the final 12 points.
The loss count is dragging down their seed, but since Thanksgiving, there is only one team that has beaten Creighton without also falling at the hands of the fightin’ McDermott’s this season—that team is an explosive Alabama team that many are penciling into the Final Four.
KEEP READING: Murray State Set to Hire Creighton’s Ryan Miller as Next Head Coach
You can go ahead and count out the Bluejays.
I dare you.
I’m not doing it. I’m thinking LONG and hard about them in the second round over Auburn and encourage you to do the same. If that matchup occurs, I’ll at least have ATS exposure to Creighton.
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