March Madness opens you up to invest in the greatest sporting event known to mankind in a variety of ways. We all love picking every game by way of the bracket and putting it up against our friends, our neighbors, and/or every person in the nation. There’s nothing like it.
That said, a bracket forces your hand to a degree – you have to take a stand on every matchup that presents itself. It’s a great event, but there’s a good chance you feel more conviction with some teams than others, and that is where the betting markets come into play.
March Madness: Futures Betting Card
Betting within your means and with a strategy is as critical this time of year as any. It’s easy to overinvest and set yourself up for unnecessary stress – I’ve been there. With that in mind, I’m going to list my plan first and then walk you through the creation of it.
Everyone handles these longer-term metrics differently. Personally, I prefer to take stands and not bet into myself. Others look to grind out minor edges, investing more money but casting a wider net where if one bet were to cash, it would mean another has to fail (for example, betting Florida and Texas Tech to make the Final Four). You increase your number of outs this way, but you also ensure that you have a losing bet on your hands, and that’s just not how I go about constructing things.
The right way to bet is whatever you are comfortable in doing. There is no secret sauce in terms of leaving this tournament with more money than when you entered. With that said, here is my plan of attack.
*For scaling purposes, I’m using $100 as one unit for round numbers. If you normally bet $25, scale down these bets by a factor of four. If you’re a $200 better, double each bet amount.
March Madness: Soppe Betting Card
- Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16 (-115, BetMGM): $100 wins $87
- Alabama to make the Elite Eight (+120, BetMGM): $85 wins $102
- Colorado State to make the Sweet 16 (+350, BetMGM): $30 wins $105
- Texas Tech to make the Final Four (+600, BetMGM): $15 wins $90
- Kentucky to make the Final Four (+800, BetMGM): $15 wins $120
- Lipscomb to make the Sweet 16 (+3500, BetMGM): $10 wins $350
Bankroll Management
Agree or disagree with these takes; we can sort that out in a minute. This is how I am allocating 2.5 units in the futures market, and these numbers aren’t random. If one of those first two bets comes through, the downside is limited—these are my two most convicted plays of the six, and if one ticket cashes, my worst-case scenario is -0.63 units.
That obviously wouldn’t be an ideal outcome, but with none of these bets conflicting with one another, my goal is to hit one of the first two and one of the next four, understanding that there is plenty of upside layered in.
READ MORE: First Round Betting Card
Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16
As you can tell from the betting patterns, this is the play I am operating with the most confidence around, and part of that is a lack of respect for Montana in the first round. They earned their way into this event, so there’s no issue there, but I have a hard time seeing a bottom-10 team in this field in both defensive efficiency and rebound rate giving the Badgers much of a push.
It’s the “easier” half, but this puts us half way to cashing this ticket.
Awaiting them in Round 2 will be either BYU or VCU, two teams that offer very different matchup concerns, but neither of which has me sweating in a serious way. The Cougars can get as hot as anyone in the nation, and that, of course, has to be accounted for, but my analysis says that you have to hold onto the ball in order to chuck up those triples, and I’m not sold.
This year, BYU ranks 205th in turnover rate (over 17% of their possessions), a stat where Wisconsin checks in at 15th. The way to upsetting the Badgers this season has been winning the turnover battle in a big way (Wisconsin is 1-3 in their four worst turnover differential games and 25-6 otherwise), and to say that doesn’t project as likely is an understatement.
My numbers like BYU to be the opponent in that spot, but I’m not blind to the fact that VCU could very well advance.
I still wouldn’t be worried.
The Rams rank 54th in this field in FT% and that puts them behind the eight ball before the game even starts against the top FT% team in the country. VCU is power-ranked as the worst of the 11 seeds for me, making them an awfully tough sell to beat the team I have as the 14th best in this field.
I think it’s more likely that the Badgers surprise in a positive light and run through this region than it is they fall short of the second week of action and that’s reflected in my using them as an anchor for my futures betting card.
Alabama to make the Elite Eight
Basketball is a game of matchups and in that vein, the Tide got the perfect draw.
1+ points allowed per possession in 60.6% of games
85+ points in 72.7% of games
25+ 3-point attempts in 75.8% of games
They want to push tempo and play the math game – they are confident that, with enough volume, their offensive talent will trump yours. This isn’t a fool proof gameplan and has a single-point-of-failure component that makes me uncomfortable in the wrong spot, but I’m not sure there is a realistic path for them to wrong into a “wrong spot” before the Elite Eight.
Robert Morris is a fun 15-seed for those of you in pools where you need to pick one team on every line for total points, but let’s not waste too much time in evaluating the Round 1 matchup. The Colonials check in at 57th in my March Madness Power Rankings, holding slightly below metrics despite the eighth-easiest schedule in the field.
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Next up for the Tide would be Vanderbilt (my top-ranked 10-seed) or St. Mary’s. Both teams have a path to upset Alabama if they completely dictate the style of the game, but neither has a great chance to do that. St. Mary’s has built their team from the inside out and that means they are vulnerable at exactly the wrong place on the court.
I have that matchup occurring, but should the Commodores pull off the upset, that would mean we have a bottom-8 defense in terms of efficiency in this field facing off against a top-8 offense by eFG%. That friends, is what we call a problem – Vandy enters this tournament having dropped three straight and eight of their past 12, not exactly a recent resume that sends chills down my spine.
And then there is the fight fire with fire spot that we are likely to see in the Sweet 16.
Barring a Cinderella run, either Wisconsin or BYU will oppose Alabama in the Sweet 16 with this ticket on the line, a game that, regardless of opponent, will likely see the victor score north of 90 points.
Both of those teams are pace-up threats, and I don’t think anyone wants to threaten Mark Sears with a good time like that (Alabama has won their seven highest possession games by an average of 13.3 points).
BYU’s free-flowing offense results in them rarely getting to the stripe (outside of the top 200 in Division I in free throw rate) … Alabama is 18-1 in their 19 lowest foul rate games.
Wisconsin ranks in the 30th percentile in this field in terms of rebounding, while Alabama ranks in the 70th … the Tide are 7-5 in their 12 worst rebounding games this season and 18-3 otherwise.
This ‘Bama team is far from perfect, but they are a talented bunch that projects exceptionally well against their specific draw. My math is typically conservative with advance rates, and yet, I have a higher percentage for ‘Bama to reach this point (49%) than the implied probability that comes with this line (45.5%).
Colorado State to make the Sweet 16
Now we are getting a little spicier. The betting markets are giving this a 22.2% chance of happening, a rate that is high for a 12-seed but not high enough for this 12-seed.
My formula gives this just over a 50% chance of occurring and while I’m willing to admit that my number is on the optimistic side of things, the difference is difficult to ignore. In the first round, they draw a Memphis team that will have, at best, a compromised version of Tyrese Hunter at their disposal.
The senior guard ranks top-3 on this team in minutes, points, assists, steals, and 3-pointers made but is nursing what sounds like a reasonably prohibitive ankle injury.
READ MORE: Ranking The Double Digit Seeds
If he suits up, it stands to reason to believe it will be a compromised version of himself, making this matchup an uphill battle for the five seed (they rank 66th in this field in assist-to-turnover rate, and that is based on a sample with their star guard at full strength.
The Rams are actually favored in that game, and I favor them in their next one as well. Likely awaiting them would be a talented Maryland team that will have won 13 of 16 games entering this showdown. That’s great, but, much like catching Memphis at the right time with the Hunter injury, facing a top-heavy Terrapins squad on short rest is optional.
Maryland’s top-5 can play with anyone in the nation, and they all pour in at least a dozen points per night. The problem? Those five are also the only players on this team averaging even four points per game. With fatigue and/or foul trouble being a real concern on a quick turnaround, not to mention a Rams team that forces their opponent to foul on almost 26% of possessions, this Maryland team in this spot doesn’t scare me in the least.
Derik Queen is going to get his, but we saw him drop 30 points in the Big Ten semifinals against Michigan and it wasn’t enough to advance his Turtles. It’s rare for a 12-seed to have consecutive favorable matchups, but that is exactly the spot Colorado State finds themselves in here and I think we are getting a discount in the betting markets due to the ugly seed number.
Texas Tech to make the Final Four
Sportsbooks are telling us that this has a 14.3% chance of occurring, a rate that is nearly half of my number and one that I think is beat-down due to recency bias.
There is plenty of casual betting this time of year, and that influx of money is going to impact the betting lines. We just saw Florida look amazing on their way to an SEC Tournament title, and St. John’s also win a championship – those two are getting a lot of attention as we near tip-off to this tournament, and they are the 1-2 seeds in this region.
Personally, I think the Red Raiders would have every chance to knock off the Gators should it come down to it (they hold a nice edge in all passing metrics and a significant edge in free throw accuracy), but part of my math here is accounting for the potential for that meeting to not happen.
Betting futures means telling a story, and my story for Florida is that they will have to run through not one but two top-25 teams (Colorado State ranks 18th for me, UConn, 20th, and Maryland 24th – I’m out on Memphis and Oklahoma, but if things play out as I project, Florida has been done no favors) just to win their mini region and make a matchup with Texas Tech even possible.
In the more immediate future would be a showdown with the Red Storm, a team that simply struggles to score. I understand that they’ve struggled to score for most of this season and have won 30 of 34 games, but that’s more revisionist history than it is predictive.
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Texas Tech wants to slow down the pace and place value on every single possession – it wouldn’t shock me for St. John’s to score something like five points over a five-minute stretch should these two share a court and a frigid spell like that isn’t going to hold up against a Red Raiders team that is more slump proof.
Top Three Scorers
- St. John’s: 28.3% from 3
- Texas Tech: 39.2% from 3
In 1995, I’d be all over the Johnnies in this spot, but a Stephen Curry revolution has happened since then, and more recent history suggests that the inability to be consistent from the perimeter is a fatal flaw.
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) March 18, 2025
Kentucky to make the Final Four
To be clear, this is an odds-based play. When push came to shove, I ended up advancing Tennessee out of this region in my bracket, but the fact that I labeled that as little more than a coin toss told me all I needed to know when it comes to the betting markets.
Final Four Odds
- Kentucky: +900
- Tennessee: +225
Sportsbooks are giving the Wildcats an 11.1% chance to emerge from the Midwest, but I have it as a shade over 23%, a difference that creates a buying opportunity. From a macro approach, only three teams in this field are on the three seed-line (or better) while also ranking as a top-10 team in this field when it comes to eFG%.
I wouldn’t mention that note if Kentucky wasn’t on that list and the other two look drastically different in terms of how the oddsmakers treat them:
Duke: -140 odds to reach the Final Four
Alabama: +425 odds to reach the Final Four
My angle for Kentucky isn’t that much different than my position on Texas Tech. It’s a region where I’m pivoting off of a favorite that I don’t anticipate my team ever having to face. As good as Houston is, could they not get tripped up by Gonzaga should that meeting occur in Round 2?
Even if you like them there, the odds are good that either Purdue (my top-ranked four seed) or Clemson (my second-best five-seed) are awaiting them in the Sweet 16. Should the Cougars survive that gauntlet, I’m still not all that worried.
I mentioned it earlier — the Volunteers of Tennessee are the team that scares me for this wager the most. It’d be a battle, but in terms of game environment, I’m comfortable with Kentucky’s ability to thrive in a variety of situations.
Tennessee would make a point of it to slow tempo and while that is the right play for them, the Wildcats have seen that strategy before and have found success (7-2 in their nine slowest games this year).
Included in that sample set is a 78-73 win in Knoxville back in January and a 75-64 win on their home court five weeks ago against the Vols.
Otega Oweh has thrived in an expanded role after transferring from Oklahoma, and I’m comfortable with the versatile junior holding my money.
Lipscomb to make the Sweet 16
Now we are talking!
Are we sure, absolutely sure, that, in a tournament of extreme chaos, a well-rounded, albeit unproven, team like Lipscomb should have the same (or longer) odds to win two games as 10 teams have to win six straight?
For me, that answer is pretty clear.
No.
In taking a step back and just looking at a profile, the Bisons have impressed. They lack a true weakness outside of their strength of schedule, rarely foul, and make their free throws.
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In essence, they do everything in their power to keep games close and excel where so many of those tight contests are decided. Call me crazy, but I like the sounds of that.
Keshon Gilbert, of course, is out for the remainder of the season, poking a major hole in the profile of three-seed Iowa State. Prior to the guard getting hurt, I had my questions about the sustainability of the Cyclones’ offense and losing their minutes leader certainly doesn’t help.
Next up could be Ole Miss. Yeah, they are battle-tested, but so what?
If all 140 pounds of me stepped into a ring against pro boxers three times a week, I, too, would be battle-tested. I’d also have my face caved in and still not be a good fighter. That’s extreme considering that I’ve never thrown a competitive punch, but you get the idea – the SEC deodorant doesn’t make every team tethered to it smell good. The Rebels are the worst rebounding team in this field and, despite reasonable shot quality, are a bottom-10 offense in eFG%
I have Lipscomb in a coin-flip situation in the first round and again in the second round – who doesn’t want 35-to-1 odds in trying to get heads twice in a row?
Sorry, not sorry.
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