The only wrong way to bet March Madness is to not bet Mach Madness. From Cinderella’s to chalky picks, future bets to bracket advice, we’ve covered you on a bit of everything this week.
Now it’s time to cater to the NBA fans who are using this month as an accelerated scouting class. Below are some of the preps that will be making an impact at the professional level next season and a way to bet on (or against) them to pad your wallet while you wait for them to take their talents to the next level.
March Madness: Betting Markets Involving Future Pros
Asa Newell, Georgia (vs. Gonzaga)
I’m going to be taking an optimistic spin on most of these future pros, but I’ve got my concerns in this spot for Asa Newell. It’s not unheard of for a super duper Georgia star to struggle this time of year (some guy named Anthony Edwards made just 11-of-45 shots in three March games while he was in town) and this matchup just doesn’t project as optimal for the potential lottery pick.
Ranking the #MarchMadness field from 1-68https://t.co/GE9qsia5uc
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) March 17, 2025
Gonzaga ranks in the top-third of this field in both rebounding and (lowest) foul rate, making those “easy” points unlikely to come in bulk and if that’s the case, this could be an ugly one-and-done situation for Newell prior to him starting a very promising professional career.
He’s recently fallen in love with the three-point shot, and while that adds upside to his profile, he’s a sub-30% shooter from distance, and that’s a path I’m happy to bet against.
- Last six games: 41% of his shots have been threes
- First 26 games: 22.1% of his shots were threes
I’m afraid that Newell is going to be asked to wear the cape against a defense (and a coach) that profile as a unit that can take away your top option. If you like him to have a big day, I’d consider simply betting Georgia to win (+235) instead of taking the other side of this prop. If you, like me, are on the Zags, you’re operating under the assumption that they force any other Bulldog to beat them.
Pick: Asa Newell under 15.5 points (-110, FanDuel)
Egor Demin, BYU (vs. VCU)
Every year, there are a few teams where you need to take a stand and not budge.
BYU is one of those teams.
They were last season too and I took the wrong side, but that’s going to happen from time to time for a team that embraces variance the way the Cougars do. Egor Demin wasn’t a part of the team that burned us last year and I think he could be the difference maker this time around.
The versatile swing man consistently has the ball in his hands and I’ll trust his raw talent against a team like VCU that wants you to melt under pressure. The Rams apply heat, but if the opponent doesn’t blink, they could systemically pick them apart and that’s what I think could happen here.
VCU owns the 12th highest foul rate in this field and with Demin always having the ball in his hands (17.5 shots-plus-assists-plus-turnovers per game), this style of game could well inflate his stat line. This season, he’s averaging 13.7 points in games where he attempts at least four freebies, a box I very much expect him to check in this specific matchup.
The best part about this prop? I think it’s game script agnostic. If BYU is playing from behind, their 6’9” swingman is likely to see his usage only increase further. If they are playing with a lead, Denim likely played a large role in getting them to that point.
What’s not to like?
Pick: Egor Demin over 9.5 points (-118, FanDuel)
VJ Edgecombe, Baylor (vs. Mississippi State)
Baylor hasn’t had a great season and with no shortage of high-end prospects on the top seeded teams, VJ Edgecombe isn’t being promoted to the general public the way some of his classmates are.
Good. More value for me in the betting markets.
It was less than a decade ago that a plus-sized guard born in the Bahamas lit up March Madness scoreboards, and I think there’s at least a chance that we see a similar storyline over the next month. VJ Edgecombe plays a different style than Buddy Hield, but he’s just as capable of taking over games at a high level, and I suspect we’ll see that in Round 1.
Mississippi State owns the fourth-worst defense in this field, making this more a spot of “how” Edgecombe wants to carve them up as opposed to “if” he will. I’m fine in assuming that this Baylor team scores in bunches and in their seven most efficient showings since December 1, Edgecombe has been nothing short of phenomenal.
- 19.4 points per game
- 4.7 rebounds per game
- 4.1 assists per game
You can leverage those numbers however you’d like. For me, I’d rather pick on the metrics most correlated with scoring, given that Baylor is projected to clear 70 points in this spot.
SGP: Baylor moneyline, VJ Edgecombe 15+ points, VJ Edgecombe 4+ assists (+460, DraftKings)
KEEP READING: Legends of March Madness
Derik Queen, Maryland (vs. Grand Canyon)
Is Maryland a perfect team? They aren’t, but I don’t think their depth is going to be a problem against an overmatched Grand Canyon team and on full rest. We can discuss a trip to the Sweet 16 when/if we get to that game – for now, I’m taking advantage of this good spot to ride the coattails of a future pro.
The Lopes own the eighth-highest turnover rate in this field, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. That puts their shot attempt count in question, and with them ranking 284th in the nation in 3P% this season (31.6%), how exactly are they going to put points on the board?
Do they plan on simply attacking the 6’10” Queen and taking their chances? He averages just 2.2 fouls per game and does well at staying on the court while defending at a high level (2.2 blocks-plus-steals per game) – this is going to be a grind at the highest level for Grand Canyo,n with extended slumps more than likely to occur.
In this field, this is a top-12 defense against a bottom-12 eFG% offense – getting within shouting distance of their projected total would be a massive accomplishment. I like the Terps to control this game and if they are milking clock at the end of a one-sided game, we are only further lowering the projected possession count.
Pick: Grand Canyon under 69.6 points (-112, FanDuel)
Jace Richardson, Michigan State (vs. Bryant)
Did you know that if you remove three games from Jace Richardson’s season up to this point, he’s a 50-40-90 player? That sort of efficiency is elite at any level, let alone for a freshman leading a Tom Izzo-led two-seed, but here we are, and I’m not sure he’s paid enough attention by the newcomers to the college hoops seen.
He’s a 6’3” athlete who puts extreme amounts of pressure on the defense at all three levels. Case in point – 12 3PA and 17 FTA in two games during the Big Ten tournament. Sparty is a big favorite in this game, and with Bryant ranking second to only Alabama in this field in terms of pace of play, the possession count figures to work very much in our favor.
KEEP READING: March Madness Fun Facts: Surprising Stats and Records You Need To Know
Richardson has cleared his scoring projection for Round 1 in four straight games. That’s a nice trend at face value, but it’s even more impressive when you consider a modest 47.8% shooting from inside the arc. I don’t think it’s crazy to think he could be the day’s top scorer, and even if he doesn’t get there, I’m plenty comfortable in getting even money on him in scoring markets.
Pick: Jace Richardson over 16.5 points (+100 FanDuel)
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
