What a time to be alive.
There is no sporting event better than March Madness and there is no better betting window than the first week of wall-to-wall action. I’ve got my formula and I’m a stubborn person, so not only am I betting my leans ahead of time, I trust the content and will offer fire during the game if an early run works away from the team I’m on.
March Madness: Round 1 Betting Card
You don’t have to be like me – but if you are, here are the first-round bets I’ve recently added to my card on top of my first picks that I shared not long after sportsbooks posted their opening numbers.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State
Every year is different, and my feelings toward the 8-9 games are as symbolic of that as anything this year. Traditionally, I have the teams involved in these games as nearly dead even and the betting markets largely agree.
I don’t think I’ve bet more than a few 8-9 games since the pandemic for that reason, but there’s a good chance that I end up with real money on at least three of the four games this time around.
Only time will tell if the ‘books have made an error in handicapping these games or if I’ve overstated some of the teams involved, but I have Baylor controlling this game from start to finish despite it being labeled as a coin toss across the board.
I’ll keep things simple with this one, we can deep dive the data for a few other selections.
What do you trust in a game that is expected to be tight? That is, in a tie game with five minutes to play, what type of team do you want holding your money?
I don’t think my desires are going to differ much from yours – I want a consistent defense, made free throws, and the best player on the court. If I can get two of those three things, I feel good about my position and will happily take my chances.
The defense of the Bears is questionable at best, but guess what? The impact of that is negated by a Bulldogs unit that grades out even worse and is largely at fault for them entering this game having lost five of their past seven (the two wins came against a 14-18 LSU team).
I don’t trust Baylor’s defense as far as I can throw them, but the fact that it’s not a matchup weakness is a victory, even if it technically doesn’t check the first box I laid out.
The other two wants I have for a game like this are working in my favor in a significant way. Watch VJ Edgecomb play and you’re going to have to fight thoughts of him being Dwyane Wade.
Relax. I’m not putting the kid into the NBA Hall of Fame while he’s still in college, but he’s got that sort of offensive prowess and has far greater shooting range than D-Wade did at Marquette.
MORE: Which Teams Are Poised To Bust Brackets?
Calling him the best player in this game isn’t a slight to what Josh Hubbard can do for Mississippi State (13 straight games with 15+ points) as much as it is an ode to Baylor’s swing man that could be the second best player in this region.
There are only seven teams in this field, including the play-in games, that convert free throws at a lower rate than the Bulldogs and only eight who are more foul prone. My numbers like the Bears to win this game by double figures, but they don’t need to – simply keep things tight for the first 35 minutes and I’ll trust the profile that says they can survive and advance.
Pick: Baylor moneyline (+105)
Yale vs. Texas A&M
Yale is an interesting team that helps me level out my Bulldog exposure after fading that mascot in the writeup above. They are an experienced bunch (their top three scores have a combined 301 games of Division-I experience) and they have a reasonably well-rounded profile.
This Yale squad isn’t going to blow you away with any one trait, but they are without a major weakness. Their offense flows smoothly and their commitment to cleaning the glass helps mask an ordinary defense.
But let’s be honest – I was destined to pick against Texas A&M and Yale is a means to that end.
The Bulldogs play within themselves and rarely settle – the exact type of high floor gameplan that I think can dispatch of an Aggies team that is sporadic and without a strength that jumps off the screen at me.
Wade Taylor IV can play, but he, much like this entire rotation, has their flaws. If the other three Wade Taylor’s suited up in this spot, I’d give their offense enough upside to cover this number, but they don’t and their downside has me going in the other direction.
Texas A&M turns the ball over on nearly 15% of their possessions, a rate that is worse than field average and a big problem if you, like me, believe that Yale will grind out perimeter passes until a good look opens up on almost every possession.
I can live with some turnovers in basketball the same way I can interceptions in football – risks are fine if the reward is there.
That’s not the case.The Aggies sixth in percentage of buckets that are assisted on.
Sixth among D-I teams with “Texas” as a part of their surname.
- East Texas A&M: 61.6%
- Texas Tech: 58.4%
- Texas State: 52.6%
- Texas Southern: 51.8%
- Texas A&M – CC: 51.4%
- Texas A&M: 47.7%
That’s a tough look (and crazy that the one “Texas” team they are better than is the Longhorns) and leads me to believe that they simply can’t pass the ball. The turnover rate isn’t the result of them taking chances that have upside attached to them, but rather a skill deficiency and this isn’t the place for that.
My Yale moneyline exposure is in my bracket, but I plan on paying for my bracket challenges with this ATS ticket.
Pick: Yale +7.5 (-110)
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— College Sports Network (@CFN365) March 18, 2025
BYU vs. VCU
This region as a whole is asking for money to be made in if you feel conviction.
I lack it as we get deeper into the bracket as I think three similar teams with a similar range of outcomes all end up facing one another and games like that are difficult to project with confidence, but in Round 1, I’m happy to invest.
At the end of the day, this isn’t a complicated pair of picks – I trust the edge BYU has on the offensive end more than the one VCU has on the defensive end.
The Cougars are hunting 3’s from the moment they step off the bus and while that obviously carries risk with it, I think that is somewhat mitigated by a Rams offense whose scoring metrics underwhelm based on their passing numbers.
Sportsbooks have essentially told us that they agree by setting the total for this game at 146.5 points – VCU just won the A-10 tournament with the average game seeing an average of 127.7 points scored.
Now, the Cougars are a different breed, but we don’t have much in the way of proof that the Rams can thrive in a high scoring environment and that is why my numbers have BYU labeled as a 13.3-point favorite.
The Cougars had their doors blown off by an elite Houston team during the Big 12 tournament, but let’s look at their results when not playing top-20 team in a true road environment.
- March 13 vs. Iowa State (neutral court): 96-92 win
- March 8 vs. Utah: 85-74 win
- March 1 vs. West Virginia: 77-56 win
- February 18 vs. Kansas: 91-57 win
- February 15 vs. Kansas State: 80-65 win
In these spots, they are winning and winning with separation. The lone exception was that quarterfinal game with a strong Iowa State, but a four-point win is a pretty good result against a viable contender who made two-thirds of their two-point attempts.
I’ll go ahead and chase some plus money here. I’ve got 1.5 units tied up in BYU advancing and half a unit in backing a one-sided result.
Pick: BYU moneyline (-150)
Pick: BYU alternate spread, -11.5 (+350, FanDuel)
Liberty vs. Oregon
Liberty is a lesser known quantity while Oregon is a team we see on a consistent basis and I think that is fueling this line a bit.
The Flames, similar to my breakdown of Yale earlier, possess a high floor and I am always going to bet that profile when getting this many points. The argument could be made that this is the best passing team in the field and while they haven’t been asked to defend elite competition, they’ve graded well when given the opportunity.
Entering Selection Sunday, I had Liberty earmarked as a draw to watch. They check almost all of the boxes I want from when it comes to a double digit seed, but they can struggle on the glass.
They run out Zach Cleveland as the head of an undersized front court, something that I think could be their downfall with time, but Oregon ranks 49th in the field in rebound rate and doesn’t scare me from that regard.
From a bracket building standpoint, I think it’s interesting to consider pulling the trigger on the outright upset. I’m not getting that aggressive with my wallet when it comes to the betting market, but I won’t be mad it comes through!
Pick: Liberty +7.5 (-110)
Kentucky vs. Troy
Big favorites are hard to back in an event that encourages chaos, but there are always some spots to do it and I think this is one of them
Kentucky’s defense might prohibit them from making a deep run if they can’t rectify it, but I don’t think it slows them down in this up-tempo game against a Troy squad that ranks 64th in this field in eFG%.
KEEP READING: Who’s Favored To Reach the Elite Eight?
I think we are a single shooting slump away from this game getting out of control and the Wildcats potentially doubling this spread as my formula suggests. Kentucky has six players averaging in double figures and has been held under 78 points just once over the past month – get to that number and I think we are cashing this ticket without a sweat.
Pick: Kentucky -10.5 (-120)
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