As the calendar changes to the new year, conference play in college basketball begins to ramp up. With that comes the best teams in the nation pulling away from the pack. Who posted a good record in the non-conference portion of the schedule and is for real? Who’s beginning to show cracks?
The NCAA Tournament is comprised of four different regions: South, East, West, and Midwest. Each region has 16 teams seeded Nos. 1-16, meaning, in the entire tournament, there are four of each seed across the four regions. Four No. 1 seeds will be named on Selection Sunday. It’s time to take stock of who they’re tracking to be. Here’s our March Madness 2025 1-Seed Update.
Who Would the March Madness No. 1 Seeds Be If the Season Ended Today?
Each week from now until Selection Sunday, we’ll keep track of who the No. 1 seeds would be if the season ended at that date. We’ll start with the No. 1 overall top seed in the nation, currently occupied by an SEC squad.
Outside Looking In
There’s plenty of time left in the season, and these teams are lurking, ready to strike if any of the projected top seeds stumble.
- Alabama Crimson Tide (15-3, 4-1 SEC)
- Tennessee Volunteers (16-2, 3-2 SEC)
- Houston Cougars (14-3, 6-0 Big 12)
- Michigan State Spartans (16-2, 7-0 Big Ten)
If you like close games, these teams had you covered last week, as Alabama, Houston, and Michigan State survived close weekend games, while Tennessee fell by one to Vanderbilt. Despite Tennessee’s loss, all four of these teams beat ranked opponents last week and will have ample opportunities for more Quad 1 wins down the stretch.
Auburn Tigers (17-1, 5-0 SEC)
Week in Review (Jan. 13 – Jan. 23):
- W vs. No. 15 Mississippi State Bulldogs (88-66)
- W @ Georgia Bulldogs (70-68)
The Tigers have far and away the best résumé in the nation, with an excellent 10-1 Quad 1 record. Auburn’s only loss came to the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium by only six points. Nearly a month and a half has passed since that lone loss — and the Tigers have rolled ever since, going 10-0 with an average margin of victory of 22.8. They faced some adversity this week, however.
Star senior Johni Broome rolled his ankle against the South Carolina Gamecocks last week, leaving him unavailable against Mississippi State and Georgia. The 6’10” forward is the team’s leader in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks — seemingly a huge missing piece for the Tigers. Pulling out two wins against the SEC’s Bulldogs tandem — each ranked in the AP Poll Top 25 — would require everyone to step up, testing the core of the team.
They did just that, handling Mississippi State at home before heading on the road to take on Georgia. The Tigers kept a consistent lead over the Bulldogs throughout the second half before Georgia made a push in the final minute, even getting a layup off with 0.3 seconds that would’ve sent the game into overtime. It didn’t fall, and Auburn was able to escape with their seventh-ranked victory on the season.
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The catalyst behind the win? Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford poured in a career-high 24 points off the bench on 7-of-13 shooting, 5-of-7 from behind the arc. It was the fifth straight game Pettiford has scored in double-digits, providing a consistent spark off the bench.
While Broome is expected back soon, the fact that the Tigers beat two ranked opponents without their best player further solidified their standing as the No. 1 overall seed if the tournament started today.
Next Week:
- Jan. 25 | vs. No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
- Jan. 29 | @ LSU Tigers
Duke Blue Devils (16-2, 8-0 ACC)
Week in Review (Jan 13. – Jan. 23):
- W vs. Miami Hurricanes (89-54)
- W vs. Boston College Eagles (88-63)
The Duke Blue Devils cruised to two blowout wins this past week, continuing their trend of taking care of business in the ACC. In a down year for the conference, Duke has bolted to an 8-0 start with an average margin of victory of 23 points.
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But don’t let that take away from the brilliance of this Duke squad, led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg. He’s leading the team in points (19.2), rebounds (8.1), assists (4.1), steals (1.6), and blocks (1.2) per game, a truly enormous feat — there’s a reason he’s the expected No. 1 selection in the 2025 NBA Draft. Flagg powers the offense with his ability to create for others and finish with power around the basket.
He’s also their best defender, consistently showing his propensity for making high-impact plays on that side of the ball attributed to his intense effort and mature-beyond-his-years IQ. Duke is one of the top defensive teams in the country, allowing only 59.5 points per game.
The Flagg-led offensive attack is supported by fellow freshman Kon Knueppel, who’s proven to be one of the top shooters in the country, contributing 12.7 points per game on 37.6% shooting from 3-point range. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor’s experience will be key for the Blue Devils as the season continues.
As the hunted opponent in the ACC moving forward, how Duke navigates the second half of the conference schedule will tell the story of their chances of earning a one-seed come Selection Sunday.
Next Week:
- Jan. 25 | at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- Jan. 27 | vs. NC State Wolfpack
Iowa State Cyclones (15-2, 5-1 Big 12)
Week in Review (Jan. 13 – Jan. 23):
- W vs. No. 9 Kansas Jayhawks (74-57)
- L at West Virginia Mountaineers (57-64)
- W vs. UCF Knights (108-83)
The Iowa State Cyclones endured a tough loss on Saturday night — but their résumé as a whole would likely put them in position to claim a one-seed. They began the week with a huge, 17-point victory against the Jayhawks in which Iowa State’s defense held every Jayhawk under 10 points besides guard Zeke Mayo, who managed 17 points.
Meanwhile, recently named starter Curtis Jones, who had proven himself to be the best sixth-man in the nation before an injury in the starting lineup, scored 25 points on 9-of-17 shooting.
Jones leads the team in scoring followed by four others in double-digits. Senior point guard Keshon Gilbert sets the table for the Cyclones, averaging 4.7 assists per game. Junior forward Joshua Jefferson uses his 6’9″, 240-pound frame to hold down the middle.
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Iowa State is a balanced team, above average on both offense and defense; they rank 21st in the nation in scoring offense and 35th in scoring defense. Their five Quad 1 victories are tied for second-most versus only two losses. One came by two points to Auburn in the Maui Invitational in late November while the other came on Saturday, Jan. 18, to a 13-4 Mountaineers squad.
The Cyclones hold key victories over No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles and No. 9 Kansas, showing the ability to defeat other top teams. Currently, they deserve a spot as a one-seed.
Next Week:
- Jan 25. | at Arizona State Sun Devils
- Jan. 27 | @ Arizona Wildcats
Florida Gators (16-2, 3-2 SEC)
Week in Review (Jan. 13 – Jan. 23):
- L vs. Missouri Tigers (83-82)
- W vs. Texas Longhorns (84-60)
- W @ South Carolina (70-69)
Despite two losses in SEC play, the Gators, by virtue of their dominant 30-point victory over the previously undefeated and No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers, and a dominant run through their non-conference schedule, take the final one-seed.
They have a 4-2 record in Quad 1, highlighted by victories over the North Carolina Tar Heels and Volunteers. They began the week with a one-point loss to the surging Missouri Tigers, who will likely be ranked in the near future. They finished the week with a dominant showing against the Longhorns at home.
The Gators are led by their senior guard trio of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard. Clayton and Martin each average over 16.0 points per game while Richard contributes 13.0 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Sophomore big man Alex Condon has been excellent as of late, with three double-doubles in the past four games.
One of the top transition teams in the country, Florida scores the eighth-most points in the country at 85.9 per game. Their two losses have come by a combined seven points.
If the Gators are poised to finish as a one-seed, they’ll have to navigate a tough SEC conference schedule — but if their early season success is any preview of the future, they have a chance to do it.
Next Week:
- Jan. 25 | vs. No. 23 Georgia Bulldogs
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