The fifth-seeded Oregon Ducks and 12th-seeded Liberty Flames are set to meet in the first round of the East Region in Seattle, the final game on Friday night.
The Ducks finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak, comfortably advancing to the tournament field. The Flames claimed the Conference USA tournament title after winning three games in four days and winning by 12 points in the championship game. They present a credible threat to the Ducks due to their excellent defense and three-point shooting ability; will they be able to pull off the upset?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Liberty vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Liberty vs. Oregon odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread
Oregon -7.5 - Moneyline
Oregon -320, Liberty +260 - Over/Under
139.5 Points - Game Time
Friday, March 21, 10:10 p.m. ET - Location
Climate Pledge Arena | Seattle - How To Watch
truTV
Liberty comes in with a 20-10-1 record ATS this season, including having covered eight of their ten non-conference games and six of eight at a neutral site — all boding well for this matchups. Additionally, the Flames are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings.
Oregon is 15-17-1 ATS but has a 7-4 record ATS out of conference. As part of their streak down the stretch of the season, the Ducks have covered four of their last six games. However, a key thing to watch: after a loss, the Ducks have only covered once in eight tries.
Both teams are rather neutral in terms of the over/under, with each having gone over 16 times this season. Where they differ is their contests as of late; while the Ducks have gone under in seven of their last eight, the Flames have gone over in six consecutive games.
Liberty vs. Oregon Preview
Liberty, regular-season and conference championship of CUSA, enter with a 28-6 overall and 16-5 conference record. They’ve won five games in a row with an average margin of victory of 13.8 and are playing the best basketball of the season as they enter the tournament.
Ditto that for Oregon, who have amassed a 24-9 record, including 13-9 in the Big Ten. Eight of those conference victories came within the last five weeks, as they finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak before defeating Indiana in the second round of the conference tournament. They ran into the Michigan State Spartans in the quarterfinals and put up a fight before falling by 10 points.
Much of that loss was because of the Spartans’ ability to take Ducks point guard Jackson Shelstad out of the game. He registered only eight points on four of 11 from the field and failed to make a three-pointer on five attempts.
The sophomore point guard is second on the team in scoring and assists and is trusted heavily by head coach Dana Altman to run the show offensively. Much of that involves getting senior center Nate Bittle his touches.
An Oregon native, Bittle averages team-highs in points (14.1 ppg), rebounds (7.4 RPG), and blocks (2.2 bpg) and has played his best as of late. Against Michigan State’s tenacious defense, he scored 22 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. That came five days after Bittle notched a career-high 36 points and 12 rebounds against the Washington Huskies in an overtime win.
The Flames boast an extremely balanced and experienced offensive attack, led by guards Taelon Peters and Kaden Metheny. Both are tremendous threats from deep.
In Peters’ last four games, he’s nailed nine of 11 shots from deep, while Metheny — at only 5’11” — has put in a staggering 16 of 31 shots from beyond the arc in his last three outings.
6’7″ forward Zach Cleveland functions more as a point-forward, leading the team in assists with 5.1 apg along with adding in 11.0 ppg and grabbing 6.3 rpg.
Zach Cleveland is the ultimate team player, but he’s playing for an audience of one. pic.twitter.com/gHpd078KbQ
— Liberty Men’s Basketball (@LibertyMBB) February 3, 2025
Along with three-point shooting, the Flames excel on the defensive end of the court allowing only 62.9 ppg, the tenth best mark in the nation.
Oregon isn’t a particularly explosive offensive team, leaving the door open to a clear defensive and three-point shooting recipe for an upset — but Altman’s teams routinely make deep runs in the tournament.
It all makes for a highly-anticipated and exciting matchup to round out the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The over/under is set at 139.5 points, with the expected final score coming out to 74-66 with Oregon pulling out the win by virtue of them being favored by 7.5 points.
NCAA Tournament games are already difficult enough to correctly select an over or under — especially with the contrasting results these two teams have displayed as of late.
I’ll go in a different direction and predict a player who may just become the next great March Madness sharpshooting darling. Standing under 6’0″, Metheny will be a name to remember. On FanDuel, his odds to score 15+ points are +138 — a good number, but I’ll do you one better. The odds of him scoring 20+ points are listed at a favorable +440.
The case?
Metheny’s last three games have resulted in the most shots in a three-game stretch all season, as he’s fired it up at will from deep in the most important games of the season. He’ll surely play 30 minutes, if not more, and is coming in having knocked down 16 three-pointers within the last nine days come tip-off.
He’ll have extreme confidence heading into this one and will likely be guarded by the 6’0″ Shelstad. Although a solid defender, Shelstad won’t be a threat to completely shut down Metheny due to his undersized stature and lack of focus at times.
For those reasons, get ahead on Metheny becoming a household name in March Madness lore — while cashing in at over four-to-one odds.
With that, it goes hand-in-hand that the Flames will cover the spread in this one. 12-five-seeded matchups typically produce two to three upsets each year — count on this being another.
KEEP READING: March Madness — Building a Futures Betting Card
Taking Liberty plus the points is a safe bet at even odds, but taking them to win outright sits at an enticing +260.
I expect them to take down the Ducks and for Metheny to be a story for years to come.
Picks: Kaden Metheny 20+ points (+440), Liberty ML (+260)
Prediction: Liberty 73, Oregon 69
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