The 2025 NCAA Tournament first-round matchup between the Liberty Flames (28-6) and the Oregon Ducks (24-9) promises to be an exciting contest. Liberty, fresh off winning both the Conference USA regular season and tournament championships, has been exceptional this season, particularly with its efficient shooting.
Oregon, making its first appearance in the Big Ten, enters as the No. 5 seed but will face a tough challenge against Liberty’s high-powered offense.
Liberty vs. Oregon Betting Preview
All Liberty vs. Oregon odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread: Oregon -7.5
- Moneyline: Liberty +260, Oregon -325
- Over/Under: 139.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, 10:10 PM EST
- Location: Climate Pledge Arena | Seattle, WA
- How To Watch: truTV
Oregon enters this game as a 7.5-point favorite after finishing the season with a solid 12-8 conference record in the Big Ten. Despite their success in a tougher conference, they’ll need to tighten up their defense to avoid being outshined by Liberty’s exceptional shooting.
The Ducks are favored with a moneyline of -325, while Liberty comes in at +260. The total points over/under is set at 139.5, with both teams having a history of high-scoring games this season.
Liberty has been a betting favorite, covering 20 times this season against the spread. They come into this matchup on a hot streak, having won five consecutive games and 11 of their last 12. The Flames also rank second nationally in effective field goal percentage, making them one of the most efficient shooting teams in the tournament.
However, Oregon is 15-17-0 against the spread, which highlights their struggles to cover despite their success on the court. Liberty’s shooting efficiency and momentum could make this game closer than many expect.
Liberty vs. Oregon CSN Winning Probability
The CSN model gives Oregon an 80% chance to win this game. This aligns with the general consensus and betting line, reflecting Oregon’s slight edge as a higher-seeded team with more experience in a tougher conference.
Liberty’s impressive statistics, especially their shooting accuracy and defensive efficiency (ranked 19th), give them a legitimate chance to challenge the Ducks. While Oregon’s winning probability is higher, Liberty’s momentum and shooting prowess cannot be ignored.
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Prediction for Liberty vs. Oregon
Liberty’s scorching shooting and recent form make them a dangerous team, but Oregon’s overall depth and experience in the tournament will likely prove too much. The Ducks have the advantage in defense and rebounding, but if Liberty can shoot efficiently and get hot from beyond the arc, an upset is possible.
Expect a competitive game with Liberty keeping it close but Oregon ultimately advancing due to their superior overall talent.
Liberty will give Oregon a tough fight, but the Ducks’ defense and experience will see them through to the next round.
Prediction: Oregon 74, Liberty 69
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