The Kentucky Wildcats are gearing up for their first NCAA Tournament game under new head coach Mark Pope as they face No. 14 seed Troy, the Sun Belt champions. Despite a season full of injuries, Kentucky enters the tournament as a heavy favorite, thanks to their depth, strong rebounding, and defensive prowess.
On the other hand, Troy will try to build on their impressive Sun Belt Tournament victory, but they’ll need to overcome several challenges if they want to upset the Wildcats.
Kentucky vs. Troy Betting Preview
All Kentucky vs. Troy odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Thursday, March 20, 2025.
- Spread: Kentucky -11.5
- Moneyline: Troy +525, Kentucky -750
- Over/Under: 152.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, 7:10 PM EST
- Location: Fiserv Forum | Milwaukee, WI
- How To Watch: CBS
Kentucky enters the game with an 11.5-point spread advantage, which reflects their dominance on both ends of the court. The Wildcats have been elite in rebounding this season, a key strength that will help offset Troy’s strategy of controlling shot volume.
While Kentucky’s defense has had some vulnerabilities, Troy’s struggles in stepping up against tougher competition and their inefficient 3-point shooting (30% on the year) make it unlikely that they can exploit those weaknesses.
The Trojans have been on a strong run, winning six straight and covering the spread in their last six games. However, their schedule has not been as competitive, with several losses to teams ranked in the KenPom top 50. Their shooting struggles, particularly from beyond the arc, will likely shorten them against a deeper, more talented Kentucky squad.
Kentucky vs. Troy CSN Winning Probability
Kentucky’s chances of advancing in this matchup are overwhelmingly high, with a significant edge in overall talent and rebounding. According to CSN’s predictions, Kentucky holds a commanding winning probability, aligning with Vegas’ expectations.
The Wildcats are widely seen as a contender, while Troy will need a near-perfect game to keep things competitive.
KEEP READING: March Madness Fun Facts: Surprising Stats and Records You Need To Know
Prediction for Kentucky vs. Troy
The Wildcats are poised to assert their dominance in this first-round matchup. Troy has the necessary fight and a few bright spots, but Kentucky’s superior talent, experience in high-pressure games, and strong rebounding will likely lead to a comfortable win.
The Wildcats should control the game from start to finish, using their rebounding advantage to dictate the pace and limit Troy’s chances to create a high-scoring, fast-paced game. Look for Kentucky to cover the spread and advance to the next round.
Prediction: Kentucky 86, Troy 70
Don’t miss a moment of March Madness! Download your 2025 NCAA Tournament printable bracket and stay on top of every game, matchup, and Cinderella story. Get yours now!
