As mid-major conferences have already begun claiming automatic bids following conference tournament victories, the at-large bubble still remains a question as major conference tournaments begin Tuesday afternoon.
There’s still a lot of movement to be had, as a quick exit—or deep run—in the conference tournament can make or break a team’s chances of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. College basketball analyst Joe Lunardi released his final bubble watch of the regular season, so let’s take a look at the latest on who’s out and who’s in of the “Big Dance.”
Breaking Down Joe Lunardi’s Last Bubble Watch for March Madness
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi just released his updated version, including the last four teams in and the first four teams out. We’re here to break down his projections and what each team needs to do to either move into the field or keep its spot.
We’ll begin with Lunardi’s projected list of the four teams that would just miss the field if the tournament were to begin today.
First Four Out
- Boise State Broncos (22-9, 14-6)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12, 13-7)
- Texas Longhorns (17-14, 6-12)
- Colorado State Rams (22-9, 16-4)
The group here is interesting, as some fans and college basketball pundits have claimed the bubble teams are some of the worst they’ve seen in years. I disagree with that opinion.
Interestingly, two teams from the Mountain West are on this list. But luckily for them and the conference—assuming they hope to send as many teams as possible to the NCAA Tournament—the Broncos and Rams are on different sides of the bracket.
They’ll both join the conference tournament in the quarterfinal round, and each needs a victory to keep their postseason hopes alive.
Another victory in the semifinals would further inspire belief that they’d make it in. If that happens for both squads, they’d meet in the conference title with an automatic bid on the line—but with each likely securing an at-large bid already.
Anything short of that possibility leaves it up for interpretation for one or both of those teams—a spot nobody wants to be in on Selection Sunday.
Texas faces arguably a much tougher task depending on how many wins they need to get in. In the first round of the SEC Tournament, they’ll face an eventual tournament team, the Vanderbilt Commodores, where a loss would obviously be lethal to the Longhorns’ tournament hopes.
A win would register as Texas’s sixth Quad 1 victory on the season—certainly a tournament-worthy mark. The question then would remain: is that enough for Texas to be the SEC’s 13th team to make March Madness?
Or would they have to win yet another game against a Quad 1 opponent, the Texas A&M Aggies, in the second round of the SEC Tournament? It’s an interesting thought, and it would surely depend on losses from teams currently projected to be inside the bubble.
Schedule-wise, North Carolina may have the easiest path yet to earn a tournament bid. Just a month ago, they looked dead in the water in terms of having any postseason life, while head coach Hubert Davis was subject to huge amounts of criticism.
Since then, they’ve righted the ship, winning six games in a row before losing to the Duke Blue Devils in a rather competitive contest in the final game of the regular season.
Now, the Tar Heels hold the fifth seed in the ACC Tournament and will face the winner of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Pittsburgh Panthers on Wednesday afternoon. They’ll need a win in that one and, more than likely, a victory over the fourth-seeded Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
That means making it all the way to the Semifinals, where they’d face off once again against Duke. At that point, it’s unlikely a win would be a requirement to make it into the 68-team field, but it would surely secure their spot.
Ultimately, each of these teams needs to perform well to great success in their respective conference tournaments to continue to be considered for the NCAA Tournament, while all depend on losses from these teams.
Last Four In
- Oklahoma Sooners (19-12, 6-12)
- Indiana Hoosiers (19-12, 10-10)
- Xavier Musketeers (21-10, 13-7)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14, 9-11)
For these four teams, the objective is pretty simple: win a game in their conference tournament and hope there are no bid-stealers from mid-major conferences that would imminently bump a bubble team out.
The Sooners will have to win a game against the projected tournament team, the Georgia Bulldogs. They lost by 10 in their matchup earlier in the season, proving this to be a potential tough matchup due to the Bulldogs’ excellence in the front court.
A loss would more than likely knock this 17-win Oklahoma squad off the bubble and send it searching for other postseason tournaments to compete in.
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Indiana faces a similar task with the Oregon Ducks as their matchup in the second round.
The Hoosiers engineered a late-season surge to even be considered for the tournament and now find themselves projected to be in, but a loss to the Ducks would put those hopes to bed. They’ll have to avenge a loss to this very Oregon team on March 4—a tough but doable task for a determined Hoosiers squad.
Xavier finished the season on a seven-game winning streak to reach 21 wins after falling to 14-10 after a loss to Villanova just over a month ago. Senior forward Zach Freemantle’s high scoring has sparked the run, which has them as the fourth seed in the Big East Tournament.
That puts them facing the Marquette Golden Eagles, potentially the toughest matchup any bubble team will face in its first conference tournament game.
The Golden Eagles, led by First Team All-Big East guard Cam Jones, just took top-seeded St. John’s Red Storm to the buzzer in the final game of the regular season, losing in heartbreaking fashion but revealing themselves as a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament.
The Musketeers badly need the win—but the good thing is that that win alone should be enough to secure a tournament bid.
Ohio State will face the Iowa Hawkeyes, whom they should easily handle. Then, they’ll face the Wisconsin Badgers in the second round—again, the question arises over how many wins they’ll need.
A win against the Badgers would assuredly secure them a tournament spot, but with a loss, the Buckeyes would still hold six Quad 1 victories, including wins over the Kentucky Wildcats, Maryland Terrapins, and Purdue Boilermakers.
It would be weird to see an 18-win team grab an at-large bid, but that’s just the nature of college basketball this season, considering how tough the Big Ten and SEC have been all season long.
The last four teams here have the same goal: win the first game in the conference tournament and hope to win a second to secure an NCAA Tournament bid and comfortably watch on Selection Sunday. If not, the nerves and anticipation will grow until teams know their final fate.
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