The 2025 NCAA Tournament is set to bring one of the most exciting first-round matchups as the Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) take on the Xavier Musketeers (22-11). Illinois enters the tournament as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region, looking to make a deep run after an Elite Eight appearance last season.
However, Xavier, seeded No. 11, is hoping to make a statement after a strong finish to their season, winning seven consecutive games. This battle between a high-scoring Illinois offense and a resilient Xavier defense is one you won’t want to miss.
Illinois vs. Xavier Betting Preview
All Illinois vs. Xavier odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 21, 2025.
- Spread: Illinois -2.5
- Moneyline: Illinois -162, Xavier +136
- Over/Under: 160.5 points
- Game Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, 9:45 PM ET
- Location: Fiserv Forum | Milwaukee, WI
- How To Watch: CBS
Illinois enters this game as a slight favorite with a 2.5-point spread. The Fighting Illini are known for their explosive offense, averaging 83.8 points per game and shooting 45.0% from the field.
Their high-scoring offense will face a stiff test from Xavier, who has been effective defensively, limiting opponents to 71.2 points per game. The total of 160.5 points is set high, reflecting both teams’ offensive firepower, but Illinois’ ability to break down defenses will be key.
Xavier has had a strong season despite a relatively high-scoring style, ranking 33rd in the nation for points scored per 100 possessions with 102.8. However, they will need to shore up their defense to compete with Illinois’ balanced attack.
Xavier has been strong at home, but their performance on the road has been less consistent, averaging 74.7 points per game away from their home court. This matchup will come down to which team can impose its style of play on the other—Illinois’ fast-paced, high-scoring offense or Xavier’s ability to grind out stops.
Illinois vs. Xavier CSN Winning Probability
Illinois holds a 68% chance to win, according to CSN’s statistical model. This number closely aligns with the Vegas line, which also favors the Fighting Illini. Despite Xavier’s solid finish to the season, Illinois’ high-scoring offense is difficult to contain.
However, Xavier’s defense has shown the ability to keep games close, which could lead to an upset if they can control the tempo and limit Illinois’ fast breaks.
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Prediction for Illinois vs. Xavier
Illinois’ offensive firepower should ultimately prove to be too much for Xavier to handle but don’t expect an easy victory. Xavier’s defense will keep them in the game, especially with their ability to defend in transition.
The Musketeers will have to control the tempo and limit Illinois’ high-scoring opportunities, but in the end, Illinois’ balanced offense and depth will shine through.
Illinois advances to the next round of the tournament, but Xavier will make them earn it every step of the way.
Prediction: Illinois 86, Xavier 81
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