Walter Clayton Jr. just delivered the performance of his life, and now he has the Florida Gators knocking on the door of a national championship for the first time in nearly 20 years.
This marks the Gators’ first national championship appearance since 2007, while Houston is seeking its first-ever title after erasing a 14-point second-half deficit against Duke. Both teams bring grit, strong defense and star power into the matchup, and oddsmakers expect it to be close.
Florida vs. Houston Betting Preview
All Florida vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, April 4, 2025.
- Spread
Houston -1 (-105) - Moneyline
Florida -105 | Houston -115 - Over/Under
140.5 points - Game Time
Monday, April 7 | 8:50 p.m. ET - Location
Alamodome | San Antonio, Texas - How to Watch
CBS
The spread indicates a toss-up, fitting for a national title matchup between two teams playing their best basketball at the right time. The over/under of 140.5 points suggests a slightly lower-scoring game, consistent with both teams’ defensive approach. Houston’s comeback over Duke was driven by backcourt pressure and timely shots, while Florida leaned heavily on Clayton to lead the offense.
Florida vs. Houston CSN Winning Probability
- Florida: 49%
- Houston: 51%
The CSN model reflects just how even this matchup is on paper. While sportsbooks give Houston a slight edge as a one-point favorite, CSN’s projection closely mirrors that, with a narrow 51-49 split in favor of the Cougars. No team is a clear favorite—it’s about execution in the final minutes, as Houston showed with its 11-1 closing run against Duke.
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Prediction for Florida vs. Houston
After scoring 34 points on 11-of-18 shooting in Florida’s dramatic Final Four win, Clayton has a chance to cap one of the most unlikely March Madness runs in recent memory.
Standing in the way? A Houston team coming off one of the wildest comebacks in Final Four history, capped by a stunning collapse from Duke. The two teams are set to battle for the NCAA title Monday night in San Antonio, and it’s shaping up to be a thriller.
This game will come down to two things: Clayton’s ability to continue his run, and whether Houston’s defense can tighten up when it matters most.
Clayton’s 34-point performance wasn’t just a career high—it was a display of leadership in a high-stakes moment. Florida feeds off his energy and shot-making, and if he finds an early rhythm, Houston could be in trouble.
Still, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars are no strangers to pressure. Their guard play, rebounding and late-game execution have been the backbone of their tournament success. Expect key plays again from LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead, as Houston looks to test Florida’s guards throughout the night.
MORE: Walter Clayton’s Historic Night
The X-factor may be fatigue. Houston used a lot of energy in its comeback against Duke, while Florida controlled much of its semifinal after building a steady lead. The Cougars can’t afford another slow start—or they’ll be chasing Clayton for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Florida 71, Houston 69
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