After winning on Thursday, four teams are one win closer to representing their region in the Final Four. The first wave of Elite Eight games takes place on Saturday evening, and we have you covered on the betting angles for the doubleheader.
Elite Eight Day 1 Betting Strategies
Game 1: No. 3 Seed Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Seed Florida (6:09p ET)
As exciting as it was to watch No. 2 seed Alabama shatter records in the first wave of Sweet 16 games on Thursday, Texas Tech stole the show in the nightcap with a dramatic overtime win over Cinderella 10-seed Arkansas.
With 9:30 to play, the Red Raiders were down 16 points. OK, no problem. Plenty of time left. Fast forward to 3:30 left, and Tech was still down 10 points.
Turns out, it didn’t matter. Freshman Christian Anderson scored 11 points and set up a game-tying triple over the final 6.5 minutes, dragging this three-seed to an extra period that saw NBA prospect JT Toppin finally get going.
How are you reading into that game?
Was the first 30 minutes against 10-seed Arkansas so disappointing that you simply cannot imagine backing Texas Tech against the hottest team in the country? Or, was the finishing kick enough to provide you with optimism, understanding that they executed their plan from the jump and that the Razorbacks simply ran hot in early perimeter shooting?
The answer is, obviously, somewhere in the middle.
Chance McMillan (oblique) remained out and that has allowed Anderson the opportunity to shine. His status is going to loom large for this contest (game-time decision on Thursday, but no definitive news in either direction just yet) – his reliable shooting would be a massive boost in this matchup against a massive Gators team.
If he does return, his absence has allowed Anderson to find a level of confidence that may not have been possible otherwise. In the five games this postseason (three in this tournament and two in the Big-12 tournament), he’s turned the ball over just twice in 188 minutes and has slid into the specialist role (69.4% of his shots have been 3’s).
Without McMillan, he’ll have to overachieve again to give the underdogs a real shot – but if they split that role, we could be looking at the best version of a team whose profile grades out as 1.3 points better than Florida for me.
You heard me.
This Gators team is cruising. That much we know. They’ve lost once in nearly two months and even in that defeat, they won the last 33 minutes by 12 points. But are they bulletproof?
I don’t think they are. At the very least, I’m surprised that, given the moving pieces injury-wise (Alex Condon suffered an ankle injury on Thursday night), Florida and Duke are favored by the same amount.
Let’s work backward.
Florida impressed me during the tournament by averaging 10 three-pointers made and 29.3 free throw attempts per game. That’s a nice level of balance and creates a stable offensive environment—but will it sustain in this specific spot?
Texas Tech ranks 40th in the nation (fifth among tournament qualifiers) in opponent three-point rate. Given that Florida ranks 51st in this 68-team field in FT%, I’m not sure that fouling is the end of the world. The Red Raiders rank in the 36th percentile in foul rate across this field.
So no, I don’t think Florida’s analytically friendly offense thrives in this spot quite the way they have in their first three games. As for the predictive stuff? That’s where they lose me.
Passing wins in the tournament. I don’t make the trends; I just follow them. Generally speaking, teams that value the ball win this time of year.
MORE MARCH MADNESS BETTING PREVIEWS: No. 5 Seed Michigan vs. No. 1 Seed Auburn
The Gators are led by a do-it-yourself guard in Walter Clayton Jr. who can, in fact, do it himself in many spots, but this has the potential to be a different story.
If McMillan plays, the Red Raiders will have three guards with over 125 games of D-I experience, all capable of defending at a high level for extended stretches of time. Clayton was hot to open this tournament and has made seemingly every clutch shot, but is what he is doing sustainable?
This postseason (including the SEC Tournament), 64.5% of his shots have been threes, a sizeable uptick from the 59.4% rate he posted during the regular season.
Isolate just the past three games, and we are looking at 67,6% of his attempts (57.4% in all games prior). My concern isn’t that he can’t make those shots, it’s that given the way he gets them (self creation), that the quality might be lower in this matchup than in others.
In the tournament, Florida is averaging 1.17 assists per turnover. Their season rate is a very solid 1.48, and that checks the box needed when it comes to Final Four pedigree (25 of the past 28 Final Four teams have had a season rate north of 1.20), but I can’t help but wonder if how they are playing right now in that regard could prove to be prohibitive.
Clayton is at the center of those struggles (seven assists against 11 turnovers), and that hints at a one-dimensional nature of his impact that, if neutralized, could really send the Gators into a tailspin.
They’ve assisted on just 52.8% of their buckets over the past two rounds (69% in Round 1 was impressive, but it was Norfolk State), and if the passing doesn’t bounce back, they are going to need a lot of less-than-optimal shots to fall through the nets to represent this region.
From a total standpoint, I found this interesting. The Gators boast an elite front line, but the Red Raiders have a projected first-round NBA pick looming and are just as physical – undersized, sure, but physical.
I’m not suggesting they outrebound Florida, but let’s assume they battle, something they’ve done all year and was certainly a big part of their Sweet 16 victory. Overs are 13-6 this season when Florida’s rebound rate is below their season average (7-11 otherwise), making that a direction I’d at least consider.
With my projection for points in this game and lean toward the underdogs, I’m going to ride with Texas Tech to score over 75.5 points, a line that, based on opening juice, has a decent shot to fall to 74.5 in some spots if you’re patient.
- Bet: Texas Tech Team Total OVER 75.5 points
- Projected Score: Texas Tech wins 79-77
Game 2: No. 2 Seed Alabama vs. No. 1 Seed Duke (8:49p ET)
Chalk has held in the East Region, and that leaves us with this beauty of a matchup.
We get a Blue Devils team that has lived up to lofty expectations all season long, posting the second-best March Madness resume since the pandemic, facing off against a highly variant Alabama team that, while a bit chaotic, hasn’t spent a day this season outside of the AP’s top-10.
Is a team that plays the way the Tide does the best option to upset Duke? Is it the only option to upset Duke?
Say what you will, but ‘Bama knows who they are and is capable of leaning into it at almost absurd levels. Against BYU on Thursday night, they made 10 more threes than two-pointers ATTMPTED.
MARK SEARS HITS HIS 10TH TRIPLE 😱#MarchMadness @AlabamaMBB pic.twitter.com/pK7Pt3DHWJ
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 28, 2025
If you’ve watched 10 seconds of the NBA this season, how this team plays looks familiar: run-and-chuck. We could dive into a larger discussion about whether this is good for the sport or not, but I’m not concerned about that—I just want to make money on this single game.
Duke has been playing at a snail’s pace all year, and it should go without saying that the tempo dictator in this spot is critical.
The Blue Devils beat the breaks off of Illinois in a fast game, but in their other four up-tempo spots against tournament-level competition, they are just 1-3 ATS with three under tickets cashing.
As for the Alabama side of that equation, it’s an interesting split. They are 6-2 ATS in their eight slowest games this season, but if you extend that sample to include games in which the Tide play at a pace below their norm, their ATS mark falls to 9-8.
Slice the data a different way and I could tell you that they are 6-3 ATS in their slow games happening since New Year’s. Which story do you believe?
I refuse to step in front of the Duke wagon in a significant way. I have the Blue Devils checking in as a 9.5-point favorite, three points higher than the opening line. The difference isn’t large enough for me to bet on the full game line, but what if we isolate the first 20 minutes?
- First Half – Alabama 1H +3.5; Duke Team Total under 90.5 points
Duke was trailing at the under-eight-minute timeout in Round 2 against No. 9 seed Baylor, another team with NBA-level pieces that they were asked to play on short rest.
I’m operating under the assumption that the Blue Devils enter this game with a very clear plan to slow the tempo, something that not only keeps the possession count in check but also limits Alabama’s chances to hang itself.
MORE BETTING PREVIEWS: No. 6 Seed Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Seed Michigan State
We are three games into this tournament, and the Tide are 0-3 in terms of the turnover battle. What makes them great is also what stands to hurt them, but if this game isn’t played at the hyper-speed that we saw against BYU, the turnovers aren’t likely to pile up initially, especially if the game is close in the early going.
For me, beating Alabama is the execution of a long game plan. They are vulnerable to wearing down (44 offensive rebounds allowed in this tournament, and the Cougars were getting whatever they wanted on the interior – 64.3% on two-point shots), and that’s fueling my spread being what it is for the entire game.
That said, how do you beat Duke? I don’t think a spiked possession count is the play. If you do, you are giving their superior talent more opportunities to realize their edge.
Alabama Pace By Week (2024 Tournament)
- First Week: 79.6 possessions per game
- Second Week: 73.4
- Third Week: 63.9
Nate Oats and company know they can dial up the variance if they so choose. If they can get into the locker room in a one-possession game, maybe they will try to create chaos over the final 20 minutes and take down Goliath.
That’s fine. I think it has a decent chance of backfiring, but I don’t have to worry about that with this angle.
- Bets: Alabama 1H +3.5; Duke Team Total UNDER 90.5
- Projected Score: Duke wins 89-79
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