The No. 2 Duke Blue Devils will travel the 10 miles down Tobacco Road and visit the North Carolina Tar Heels in the 264th edition of one of the best rivalries in sports.
The Blue Devils are yearning for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, having won seven games in a row. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are scrapping and clawing just to make it into the tournament, but they have made a case lately, having won their last six games. A win against Duke could solidify their resume and ensure a trip to the big dance. Who will come out on top?
Find out below as we make a prediction and break down the spread, total, and money line bets.
Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Preview
All Duke vs. North Carolina odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 8, 2025.
- Spread
Duke -10.5 - Moneyline
Duke -580, North Carolina +420 - Over/Under
157.5 Points - Game Time
Saturday, March 8, 6:30 p.m. ET - Location
Dean E. Smith Center | Chapel Hill, N.C. - How To Watch
ESPN
Duke has been terrific in terms of covering this season, with a 20-10 record ATS. That includes going 13-6 ATS in ACC play and covering each of their last six outings.
North Carolina has been underwhelming with a 12-18-1 record ATS and only having covered seven of their 19 conference matchups. However, as part of their recent winning streak they’ve covered five games in a row.
The Blue Devils’ defense has been excellent this season, giving up the fourth-fewest allowed points to opponents per game at 61.1 ppg. Despite that, their offense has been tremendous as of late, leading to each of their last six games going over the point total.
Experiencing a similar dominant offensive stretch, the Tar Heels have gone over in 18 of their 31 games, with seven games in a row reaching that mark.
Duke vs. North Carolina Preview
The Blue Devils enter with a 27-3 overall and 18-1 ACC record — with a win against the Tar Heels, they’d claim the ACC regular-season title. Following their lone conference loss to the Clemson Tigers on Feb. 8, Duke has rattled off seven consecutive wins with an eye-popping average margin of victory of 31.9.
A little under a month ago, Hubert Davis’s North Carolina squad found themselves with a 14-11 overall record and with their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament looking bleak.
Since then, they’ve reeled off six straight wins and brought their overall record to a respectable 20-11 and 13-6 in ACC play — good for a tie for fourth-place. A win in this game would leave them in sole possession of that spot due to them owning the tiebreaker over the SMU Mustangs.
Davis heard calls for his job throughout the middle part of the season after a disappointing start; to his credit, he’s made adjustments and has seen his team excel.
That change came in the form of a starting lineup change. To start the season — and in UNC’s 87-70 loss to Duke in their first meeting — Davis was rolling out four guards, an extremely small lineup that got beaten up defensively and on the boards. A move to the bench for freshman guard Ian Jackson ensured and he’s become one of the best players off the bench in college basketball.
But it all starts with fifth-year senior R.J. Davis who’s leading the team in scoring at 17.2 ppg. Sophomore point guard Eliot Cadeau helps Davis in the backcourt and leads the team with 6.1 apg.
The real game-changer for the Tar Heels has been the emergence of junior forward Ven-Allen Lubin in the starting lineup. In his last five games, he’s averaging 13.2 ppg down low along with 6.8 rpg, over five points and two rebounds higher than his season averages.
It’s no secret who his matchup will likely be in this game: Duke’s freshman phenom Cooper Flagg. The Maine native has been arguably the best player in college basketball this season, leading the Blue Devils in four major stat categories.
In the first meeting with the Tar Heels, he put up a stat line of 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and two blocks.
But it’s not just a one-man show for the Blue Devils, as starters Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor both average in double figures, along with 6’6″ guard Sion James, who’s a force on the defensive end of the floor.
Watch out for freshman guard Isaiah Evans, who’s averaging 15.4 ppg over his last five outings — nearly doubling his scoring average on the season.
As mentioned, this will be the second meeting between these two teams. The Tar Heels will be looking for revenge, while the Blue Devils will be looking to add yet another ACC regular-season title — as if they need more motivation heading into this rivalry matchup.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The bet on the total for this game should be a no-brainer — which is oftentimes dangerous in betting.
Duke and North Carolina have combined to hit the over in their last 13 games — six for the former and seven for the latter. With that in mind, and the point total being a manageable 157.5 points, we’ll take the over.
Their last meeting saw exactly 157 points, but that was with Duke’s backups playing a majority of the final 10 minutes.
In terms of the spread, this is a tough game to predict.
The Blue Devils have been on a complete roll, covering each of their last six games with all coming by 18 points or more. On the other hand, the Tar Heels have covered five in a row and have finally seemed to find their groove.
At the end of the day, it depends on what you think is more important for these teams. Yes, it’s a rivalry game, and that will certainly drive the motivation plenty far for both squads. But UNC is playing for their season, with their NCAA Tournament hopes on the line. They desperately need a win to further bolster their résumé — beating the No. 2 team in the nation would do the trick.
Duke is playing for a regular-season ACC title — but that’s a whole lot different than playing for their season.
I may be underestimating the focus of head coach Jon Scheyers’ Blue Devils squad, but I’m willing to bet on the desperation of the Tar Heels.
KEEP READING: 5 Underrated Teams That Could Shock Everyone in NCAA Men’s March Madness Tournament
I’m taking them to cover the spread of Duke -10.5 and win outright. Desperation will drive UNC to one of the biggest upsets of the year and another classic in this historic rivalry.
Picks: Over 157.5 Points, North Carolina +10.5, North Carolina ML (+420)
Prediction: North Carolina 87, Duke 84
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