The Duke Blue Devils and Illinois Fighting Illini will face off in a rare February non-conference matchup. The game will be in the bright lights of Madison Square Garden featuring an intriguing group of freshman; Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel for the Blue Devils and Kasparas Jukucionis and Will Riley for the Fighting Illini.
Can Illinois pull off an upset victory, or will Duke add a 24th win on the season?
Find out below as we make a prediction for this game, as well as examine the spread, total, and money line bets.
Duke vs. Illinois Betting Preview
All Duke vs. Illinois odds are from Fanduel Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, Feb. 22, 2025.
- Spread
Duke -8.5 - Moneyline
Duke -400, Illinois +310 - Over/Under
155.5 points - Game Time
Saturday, Feb. 22, 8:00 p.m. ET - Location
Madison Square Garden | New York, NY - How To Watch
FOX
Duke is terrific in terms of covering, going 16-10 ATS. In non-conference matchups, they’re 6-4 ATS but haven’t covered in two outings at a neutral site. As part of their three-game winning streak, the Blue Devils have covered the spread in their last two.
Duke is one of the top teams in the country defensively and has gone under the listed point total in 14 of 26 games. However, as of late, they’ve scored very well on the offensive end of the court, causing five of their last seven games to go over the point total.
Illinois has had some trouble ATS this season, only covering 12 of 27 opportunities. They are 6-4 ATS in non-conference games — but those came within the first month and a half of the season. The Fighting Illini haven’t covered in three games.
A high-scoring team with slightly below-average defense, Illinois hits the over at a 59.2% rate. Of their three neutral site games, they’ve shot well and gone over in all three. Additionally, three of their last four outings have gone over.
Duke vs. Illinois CSN Power Rankings Line
Duke, while being No. 3 in the country in this week’s AP Poll Top-25, comes in at No. 1 in our power rankings. Illinois, unranked, falls at No. 31 after losing two consecutive games. The line of -8.5 is likely indicative on the bright lights of the game and the expectations that it will stay close.
Despite that, our power rankings would suggest that the line is too low, giving the advantage to the Blue Devils’ side of the line.
Preview for Duke vs. Illinois
Illinois enters with a 17-10 overall and 9-8 Big Ten record, good for seventh in the conference. They have lost two in row, but are still considered very likely to make the NCAA Tournament.
Duke sports a 23-3 overall record including a placement of first in the ACC with 15 wins versus only one loss. They’ve won three consecutive games following that lone loss to the Clemson Tigers and are almost assured a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance assuming they don’t collapse down the stretch of the season.
MORE: Big Ten Tournament Projections
The lights and pressure of MSG will be squarely on the shoulders of the Blue Devils’ freshman sensation Cooper Flagg.
The Maine native leads the team in every major stat category, which is highlighted by his 19.7 ppg and innate play-making ability at 4.0 apg despite being 6’9″. Flagg is in the thick of the Naismith National Player of the Year debate, but the team around him is no slouch either.
Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel is a sharpshooter from deep while showing an improved ability to put the ball on the floor and create as the season has progressed. 6’6″ junior guard Tyrese Proctor, despite a quiet game in their last outing, is averaging 17.3 ppg over his last six games.
Another 6’6″ guard, Sion James, adds another element to Duke when he’s playing with confidence. He’s pouring in 10.7 ppg over his last seven.
While many games over the past two months have been pieces of cake for the Blue Devils in the disappointing, down year of the ACC, the Fighting Illini present one of the toughest opponents they’ve faced during that time frame.
It all starts with 6’6″ Lithuanian point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, who averages 15.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 4.8 apg. The freshman’s passing and three-point shooting ability have been on full display all season and are huge reasons that he’s likely to be a top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Jakucionis’s pick-and-roll partner, 7’1″ Croatian sophomore Tomislav Ivisic, scores 12.5 ppg while grabbing a team-leading 8.2 rpg. He can step out and hit shots from beyond the arc — when he’s feeling it from out there, the Fighting Illini are extremely tough to beat.
After a slow start to his freshman season, five-star forward Will Riley has found the touch as of late. Over his last seven games, he’s improved to 17.0 ppg on excellent efficiency.
Illinois has lost two consecutive games, but both were to highly-ranked opponents. While Duke is a different animal altogether, the Fighting Illini pose as a dangerous team comes to the NCAA Tournament, creating the real possibility of an upset win in MSG.
Best Bets and Final Score Prediction
The one common trend between these two teams as of late is their propensity to go over the listed point total. The over is set at 155.5, with the expected final score being Duke 82, Illinois 74.
I see them flying by that number. Whether it’s both teams scoring high totals or just the Blue Devils, there’s a high possibility the total will go over 155.5 points, so we’ll take the over.
As far as the spread goes, our CSN Power Rankings would suggest that it should be higher. The eye test may say the same, with Duke on a three-game win streak and Illinois on a two-game skid. But something about this game tells me that it will come down to the wire — or at least free throws at the very end.
KEEP READING: SEC Tournament Projections
Duke being favored by -8.5 likely saves a bad beat situation with end of game free throws, while still giving a chance for Illinois to cover and not win outright.
My feel for this game is that it will be close throughout — why would a game at MSG be any other way?
Jakucionis, Riley, Knueppel, and especially Flagg will show out on the biggest of stages, producing a classic late-season, non-conference contest.
In the end, Duke will pull out the win — but not without the Fighting Illini keeping it close until the very end.
Picks: Over 155.5 Points, Illinois +8.5
Prediction: Duke 85, Illinois 80
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