The Final Four is locked in, and two No. 1 seeds are set to clash for a spot in the national title game as the Duke Blue Devils face off with the Houston Cougars. Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, punched its ticket to San Antonio in dominant fashion, dismantling Alabama 85-65 in the East Region final.
Houston, meanwhile, outlasted Tennessee in a gritty, low-scoring battle—once again showing why it’s one of the most suffocating defenses in college basketball. Our Houston vs Duke prediction answers your most burning questions around this highly-anticipated matchup of top seeds.
Houston vs. Duke Betting Preview
This matchup is a classic strength-on-strength: Duke’s efficient, high-powered offense meets Houston’s relentless defensive pressure. Can the Blue Devils keep the ball moving, or will the Cougars make it a grind?
All Duke vs. Houston odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, April 5, 2025.
- Spread
Duke -4.5 (-115), Houston +4.5 (-105) - Moneyline
Duke -205, Houston +170 - Over/Under:
136.5 (Over -110, Under -110) - Game Time
Saturday, April 5, 2025, 8:49 p.m. ET - Location
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX - How to Watch
CBS
Houston locked up Tennessee in the Elite Eight, holding them to just 50 points and showing exactly why they’re built to slow anyone down. The Cougars contest everything, close out hard, and force teams into uncomfortable possessions—an especially interesting challenge for a Duke offense that’s been sharp all tournament.
But Duke also has the most impactful player on the court in Cooper Flagg. He struggled with shot selection against Alabama, but his two-way ability can change a game in an instant.
While Duke has leaned on offensive firepower to get here, Houston’s toughness and timely shot-making—not necessarily from deep—give this matchup a ton of intrigue.
Guard LJ Cryer bounced back from a quiet Sweet 16 showing to lead the Cougars in scoring against Tennessee. He’ll need to bring his best once more.
Houston vs. Duke CSN Winning Probability
- Duke: 62.3%
- Houston: 37.7%
Duke enters as the slight favorite according to Vegas odds, and CSN’s probability aligns with this assessment. The Blue Devils have been dominant offensively, but Houston’s defensive prowess keeps them within striking distance.
The Cougars’ winning percentage may seem low, but their ability to grind out wins in close games makes them a serious threat.
Prediction for Houston vs. Duke
It’s going to come down to who executes better in key moments. Duke’s spacing, passing, and overall offensive versatility give them a slight edge, but Houston will test every inch of that game plan.
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If Cryer can stay hot and the Cougars dominate the offensive glass, Houston will be right there down the stretch.
But in the end, Cooper Flagg’s star power and Duke’s offensive polish may be just enough to get the Blue Devils to the title game.
Prediction: Duke 70, Houston 67
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