We got it. When the brackets were released, some potential second-round matchups jumped off the screen, and this Creighton Bluejays vs. Auburn Tigers game was one of them. The top seed in the South Region dominated Alabama State from start to finish, while Creighton used a red-hot shooting stretch in the first half to gain separation that they wouldn’t relinquish.
That’s the past — what does the future hold?
Creighton Bluejays vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
When a one-seed looks good in their tournament opener, there usually isn’t much thought when it comes to advancing them to the Sweet 16. Sure, sometimes a frisky 8/9-seed hangs around, but more often than not, the public begins to tune into the one-seed games once they get to the second week of action.
Don’t make that mistake.
Creighton vs. Auburn Score Projection
Creighton is an experienced team with a ceiling that would allow them to push the tournament’s top overall seed to the brink … if not home outright.
Early line gives you two more points on DraftKings than FanDuel … Creighton (+10.5) vs. Auburn on DK
My score projection …
Auburn: 73 Creighton: 69
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) March 20, 2025
I’ll admit that my numbers come in hot annually for Creighton. Some teams consistently play a style that jives with my numbers, and that’s going to happen when trying to build out a model to rank 364 teams week in and week out.
That said, I bet this number at the open and pounced on the +390 moneyline. Yes, I trust my numbers, but the more I look at this matchup, the more I like it.
From a “know ball” standpoint, we have Creighton’s defensive strategy to look at. We’ve seen opponents look to take away Auburn’s “other” pieces and ask Johni Broome to beat them. Of course, that’s easier said than done, but the Bluejays are uniquely positioned to execute this plan at as high a level as anyone in this field, thanks to Ryan Kalkbrenner.
As good as Broome is, he’s a 28.9% three-point shooter this season and is getting to the stripe a career best 5.6 times. Why do I mention those specific numbers? Kalkbrenner is as historically good shot-blocker when it comes to foul rate and that means we could be looking at a lot of Broome jumpers.
Heck, it means that easy points at any level are going to be difficult to come by for the Tigers. This season, they are 3-2 in their five lowest opponent foul rate games.
Sure, those losses came at Cameron Indoor and against Alabama in overtime, but it is also includes a 66-63 win over 20-loss South Carolina, owners of the 171st ranked defense this season.
That data point sticks with me. It’s only a 40-minute sample, but it gave us a glimpse of what is at risk of happening here. The Tigers’ starting unit didn’t make a single free throw, and Broome was neutralized (six points in 24 minutes). I’m not expecting that to be the case, but the fact that it cannot be ruled out is concerning.
On the other side, Auburn owns the second highest foul rate in this field (not the current field, the 68 teams that initially qualified).
Kalkbrenner is a more than capable free throw shooter for a big (he’s had his ups-and-downs this season, but he’s a 71% career shooter with a 79.5% season on his resume), and Steven Ashworth is one of the most accurate in the nation (nine misses on 128 attempts this season).
The X-factor in this matchup has to be Creighton’s Kamiya Neal. The senior has 128 games of experience and has really come into his own of late (last three games: 61 points on 54.8% shooting with 24 rebounds and 15 assists).
If he’s making shots like we did against Louisville, this game has upset written all over it, but even if he just sustains his aggression (20 FTA across those three games), I think this is a coin-toss contest coming down the stretch.
There’s more upside on this Tigers roster than what the Bluejays have access to, but I’d argue that the production floor, over the course of 40 minutes, is too similar to be laying double digits.
READ MORE: Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction
Worst case, your bracket falls apart, but you pay for it with Creighton bucks. Best case? Auburn squeaks by, your Final Four stays intact, and you cash this ATS bet on a spread that is a bucket or two too high.
This train of thought also has me landing on Auburn under 79.5 points – all of these angles are correlated, as I like our chances at a Creighton cover (win?) only if the Tigers go through a scoring drought or two.
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