The Big Ten has exceeded expectations in 2025, proving to be arguably the second-best conference in college basketball behind the SEC.
Over half of the 18 teams in the league still harbor hopes of making the NCAA Tournament field with four weeks remaining until Selection Sunday. But before that, the much-anticipated Big Ten tournament will take place in Indianapolis, IN.
Projecting the 2025 Big Ten Tournament
The Big Ten, featuring 18 teams, differs from a simple bracketed tournament. In fact, the teams who finish 16-18 in the regular-season standings won’t even be included in the tournament. The projected teams to miss the tournament include the Washington Huskies, Northwestern Wildcats, and Penn State Nittany Lions.
In the first round, seeds 10 through 15 will face off. The second round will features seeds five through eight facing the winner of the the first round games. Awaiting the winners of those games in the quarterfinals are seeds one through four. From then on, it’s a basic bracket.
Our seeds will be based off of TeamRank, which uses odds and average projected seeds to establish a predicted Big Ten tournament field, beginning with an intriguing matchup featuring the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes.
First Round
No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes
This game will be a potential rematch, in which Ohio State handled Iowa 82-65 at home. However, it’s always hard to beat a team twice, which the Buckeyes would have to do to keep their hopes of an NCAA Tournament berth alive.
Four Buckeye starters scored in double-digits in that matchup, while the Hawkeyes’ leading scorer, Payton Sandfort, shot just 5 for 16 from the field, scoring 13 points.
If they were to meet again, Sandfort would have to play better or else Iowa would suffer a similar fate and be bounced from the conference tournament.
No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 14 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Whenever the Scarlett Knights are playing, it’s must-watch. Although the team hasn’t lived up to expectations, their star freshman duo of guard Dylan Harper and forward Ace Bailey have most certainly been entertaining to watch.
In this hypothetical meeting, they’ll take on the Hoosiers who have had a tougher time than expected in conference play this season.
MORE: SEC Tournament Projections
Indiana defeated Rutgers 84-74 in their only meeting this season on Jan. 2, but Harper was injured for that game. Without his sidekick, Bailey went for a season-high 39 points.
With Harper back from injury, the Hoosiers would need much better defense to take the Scarlet Knights for a second time.
No. 12 USC Trojans vs. No. 13 Minnesota Golden Gophers
One of the new additions to the Big Ten, the Trojans would battle against the Golden Gophers for a second time this season in this projection. The game, played in Los Angeles, was a 69-66 Minnesota win led by senior guard Lu-Cye Patterson’s season-high 25 points. USC was up nine points at halftime but couldn’t put it away in the end.
This would be an intriguing matchup between two evenly-matched teams with proven scorers: senior forward Dawson Garcia of the Golden Gophers and junior guard Desmond Clande are two of the best scorers in the conference.
This would be a tough game to predict, as it’s almost assuredly going to come down to the final minute.
Second Round
No. 8 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Cornhuskers have turned it on as of late, winning five of their last seven after a devastating six-game losing streak at the beginning of conference play. Their late season surge — which included a 77-71 victory in Eugene, OR, over the Ducks — has them in position to claim an NCAA Tournament berth with continued success down the stretch of the season.
A win in their first game of the Big Ten tournament would be paramount for both of these teams. Although the Ducks have amassed an impressive eight Quad 1 wins, they lost five consecutive games in a three-week span in late January and early February, making their chances of making the tournament slightly murky.
A win by either of these teams in this matchup would almost assuredly guarantee a spot in the tournament, making this an extremely important game.
No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 10 Ohio State/No. 15 Iowa
The Fighting Illini have been a difficult team to place all season, spending stretches in the AP Poll Top 25 and also enduring multiple losing streaks. But with freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis running the show, they’re always an entertaining watch.
They beat the Buckeyes at home, 87-79, in which three Ohio State starters scored 20 or more points, and match up with Iowa on Feb. 25.
The Fighting Illini fit the description of a team that could catch a hot streak and win the entire tournament — while also being a candidate for an early exit due to their inconsistent stretches.
No. 6 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 11 Indiana/No. 14 Rutgers
The Bruins, after being publicly called out by their head coach Mick Cronin, have established themselves as a force in the Big Ten after looking nothing like it early on.
A seven-point loss to the Scarlett Knights was apart of their rough start, while a four-point win over the Hoosiers in Indiana came on Feb. 14.
Without a massively talented top-player, UCLA doesn’t quite project as a team that could run the table and win it all. However, they’ve been steady enough recently to beat teams that they should beat, making for an expected win here, putting them in the quarterfinals.
No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 12 USC/No. 13 Minnesota
The Boilermakers have a talented group led by junior point guard Braden Smith and junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. They’ve beaten Minnesota and USC by 20 and 18 points, respectively.
MORE: 5 Must-Watch Mid-Major Teams Poised for a March Madness Run
This should be a rather easy contest for Purdue, who has their sights set on a Big Ten Championship and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Top 4 Seeds
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines
Head coach Dusty May has the Wolverines rolling, catching fire as the conference tournament nears. There’s a very real chance they can claim the regular-season title and conference title with the team they have.
Led by their duo of seven-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, the Wolverines have been a matchup nightmare for every team in the conference. Wolf is more like a guard with his ability to stretch the floor and distribute to others while leading the team in rebounding.
While they have the capabilities of a national title run, the conference championship comes first, something the Wolverines will likely be favored to win.
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans’ physical brand of defense has coincided with wins this season. Offensively, they’re extremely balanced, with scoring coming from different individuals each night.
Lately, freshman guard Jase Richardson has come into his own, providing a dynamic scoring option for head coach Tom Izzo.
If Richardson can continue his high scoring output, the Spartans ceiling is raised exponentially, posing a threat to Michigan’s chances of a conference championship.
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers have surged as of late, not losing a game in February. They’ve showcased themselves as a dangerous team that nobody will want to face in the Big Ten tournament.
Senior guard John Tonje is as prolific of a scorer in college basketball as they come, averaging 25.1 points per game over his last eight outings. Alongside him, fellow guard John Blackwell is also a reliable scorer.
Wisconsin is certainly one of the top contenders for the Big Ten championship, as they seem to be peaking at just the right time.
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins
Another team that’s seemingly peaking right now are the Terrapins, who have won eight of their nine games. The front court duo of freshman center Derik Queen and senior forward Julian Reese has been unstoppable over the past month.
KEEP READING: ‘Got 6 Quad 1 Wins’ — Brad Underwood Highlights Illinois’ Successes Ahead of March
Each average over 14.0 points per game on excellent efficiency. Point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie is also playing his best basketball lately, establishing himself as one of the top guards in the conference.
Maryland, after not being expected to be at or near the top at the beginning of the season, has emerged as a serious contender in the Big Ten.
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