The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears face a daunting challenge in the second round of the NCAA Tournament as they take on top-seeded Duke in the East Region.
The Bears have a strong tournament history, including their 2021 national championship, but they have struggled in recent years, exiting in the second round each of the last three tournaments. Meanwhile, Duke enters the matchup boasting a 32-3 record, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who recently returned from an ankle injury to deliver a dominant first-round performance. The battle between Baylor’s experienced star Norchad Omier and Duke’s suffocating half-court defense will be the key storyline in this matchup.
Baylor vs. Duke Betting Preview
All Baylor vs. Duke odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Saturday, March 22, 2025.
- Spread: Duke -12.5 (-110) | Baylor +12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Duke -800 | Baylor +550
- Over/Under: 143.5 (-110)
- Game Time: Sunday, March 23 | 2:40 p.m. ET
- Location: Lenovo Center | Raleigh, North Carolina
- How to Watch: CBS
Duke enters this game as the heavy favorite, having won all 22 games in which they were favored at -800 odds or shorter this season. On the other hand, Baylor has not played as an underdog with moneyline odds longer than +550, making this their toughest matchup of the season. While Duke’s defense has been elite in slowing down opposing offenses, Baylor’s ability to control the glass with Omier’s rebounding prowess could keep them within the spread. However, the Blue Devils’ balanced attack and dominant half-court presence make them a tough team to bet against.
Baylor vs. Duke CSN Winning Probability
- Duke: 81.3%
- Baylor: 18.7%
According to CSN’s analytics model, Duke holds an overwhelming advantage in this matchup. This aligns closely with Vegas odds, which heavily favor the Blue Devils. Baylor’s path to victory will rely on Omier’s ability to dominate the paint and slow down Duke’s efficient offense. If the Bears can control the pace and limit turnovers, they could cover the spread and make this a competitive game.
Prediction for Baylor vs. Duke
This game will test Baylor’s resilience against one of the best defenses in the country. Duke’s ability to force teams into difficult half-court sets has been a major factor in their dominance this season. Meanwhile, Baylor’s struggles against elite defensive teams make this a tough matchup for them.
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Omier will need to have one of his best performances of the season to keep the Bears in the game, but Duke’s overall talent, led by Flagg, gives them the edge. Expect Baylor to put up a fight early, but Duke’s defense and depth should wear them down over 40 minutes.
Prediction: Duke 75, Baylor 70
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