THIS. IS. MARCH.
Conference tournaments get underway Sunday as the ASUN kicks things off. One team is one of the heavier favorites in all of college basketball conference tournament season. Can anyone upset the Lipscomb Bisons, or is they poised to become one of the first of the year to punch their ticket? Find out in our ASUN Tournament prediction.
ASUN Tournament Overview
The ASUN is one of the country’s most transient conferences, as only three of the last seven champions are still in the conference.
In fact, current conference teams have only won seven of 45 total ASUN Championships, with Florida Gulf Coast as the only multi-time champion in the conference.
Last year’s champion Stetson Hatters will need a miracle to repeat, as the 9-seed this season, having to play in the first round on Sunday just to earn the right to play in the quarterfinals.
The first round will be played on Sunday, March 2 at the home courts of the 1 and 2-seed (Lipscomb and North Alabama)
Unlike most conference tournaments, these games are played at the home court of the higher seeds, adding to the intrigue. That also means games are played simultaneously, quad box anyone? So, who wins? And are there any value plays to bet?
ASUN Tournament Prediction
No. 10 Central Arkansas vs. No. 9 Stetson Prediction (First Round @ Lipscomb) – Sun., March 2, 7:00 p.m.
Only the top 10 of 12 teams make the ASUN Tournament, meaning Central Arkansas and Stetson had to edge out new-to-Division-1 West Georgia and 2022 champion Bellamine just to make the tournament.
The winner gets to turn around and play top-seeded Lipscomb. Take the Hatters here, as neither team has been particularly inspiring, but Stetson has been a bit more consistent and won the last meeting between these teams in January by 10. Congrats, Hatters, now go play Lipscomb.
Prediction: Stetson 70, Central Arkansas 59
No. 8 North Florida vs. No. 7 Austin Peay (First Round @ North Alabama) – Sun., March 2, 7:00 p.m.
North Florida is one of the streakiest teams in the country as they live and die by the three. They’re first nationally in shots (and 3-pointers) per game. They can get hot, but unfortunately, they have the 15th-worst defensive efficiency.
There will be points. Adding to the intrigue is that that winner plays North Alabama. The last time Austin Peay played in Florence, a brawl erupted after overtime. I’m taking the Ospreys here, as I think they can get hot.
Prediction: North Florida 92, Austin Peay 88
No. 5 Eastern Kentucky vs. No. 4 Jacksonville – Mon., March 3, 7:00 p.m.
Teams 3-7 in this conference are so close in terms of talent. Home court advantage is huge. Accordingly, I like the Jacksonville Dolphins here, a sneaky pick to make a run. They live and die by turnovers, as the offense is one of the worst in giving away the ball, but the defense is one of the best at forcing turnovers.
The same could be said about the Colonels, except they’re typically better at holding onto the ball.
Take the Colonels on the road to get their first win in three attempts over the Dolphins.
Prediction: Jacksonville 72, Eastern Kentucky 65
No. 6 Queens vs. No. 3 Florida Gulf Coast – Mon., March 3, 7:00 p.m.
There’s a wrinkle here as Queens is in its second year at the D-I level and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If the Royals win the whole thing, Lipscomb gets in as the regular season champion.
Florida Gulf Coast has won four-straight and this isn’t like the Dunk City team you remember from a few tournaments back. They’re slow, methodical, and can really shoot. Take the Eagles here.
Prediction: FGCU 69, Queens 60
There are two other quarterfinals at Lipscomb and North Alabama. We won’t know until late Sunday night which low seed they’ll play.
ASUN Tournament Format
The ASUN has my favorite tournament format for three reasons:
- Campus Games
- Simultaneous Play (Four games at once for the quarterfinals and two at once for the semifinals)
- Reseeding for the semifinals
While the first two are self-explanatory, the third might confuse some. It simply means that the higher seeds get all the advantages (Making the regular season more important). If there’s an upset, a lower seed won’t get the advantage of playing a lower seed. For example, if all the higher seeds win, but Queens (6) pulls off an upset, the Royals will travel to Lipscomb, not North Alabama.
Basically, the highest of the four seeds remaining after the quarterfinals will automatically play the lowest-remaining seed, regardless of what side of the bracket each started on. Lipscomb is guaranteed to have the easiest path to the finals and if there are any upsets, their path will be easier.
Lipscomb (-165 on DraftKings) is the heavy favorite, followed closely by North Alabama (+225) and distantly by FGCU (+1000) and Jacksonville (+1800) each of which would very likely have to play at two road games to win the title.
I don’t love the juice the sportsbooks are taking here and will likely abstain from conference-winner bets. However, I’m looking at a lot of underdogs against the spread in the quarterfinals, as this tournament tends to have some upsets and close games.
If I had to make one best bet relative to its value, I’d look at North Alabama (+240 on FanDuel) to win the tournament. They split with the Bisons in the regular season. Even though they lost by 12 at Lipscomb just a couple of weeks ago, I don’t see that much between these teams.
Don’t bother with longshots here. It could happen but the odds are not in your favor. And those Lipscomb has an implied conference win probability of just over 62%, that’s a lot when they need to win three games to get there.
Stay away from ASUN Tournament winner bets, but if you have to pick a team relative to the implied odds, go with the Lions.
Best Bet: North Alabama Lions (+240)
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