John Calipari has his Arkansas Razorbacks playing their best basketball at a key time in the schedule, as the Razorbacks are 4-2 in the SEC since a putrid 0-5 start in conference. But is it too late?
Our Arkansas vs. Texas A&M prediction examines the first of three-straight ranked games for the Razorbacks. Can the Texas A&M Aggies avoid the upset?
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Betting Preview
All Arkansas vs. Texas A&M odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, Feb. 14, 2025.
- Spread
Texas A&M -8.5 - CSN Spread
Arkansas -1 - Moneyline
Texas A&M -375, Arkansas +295 - Over/Under
139.5 Points - Game Time
Saturday, Feb. 15, Noon ET - Location
Reed Arena | College Station, Tex. - How To Watch
ESPN
Arkansas is surging at the right time and after looking out of it just three weeks ago, the Razorbacks actually have a better than 50% chance to make the tournament, per DraftKings (-125).
But they’ll face a brutal stretch with road games against No. 8 Texas A&M and No. 1 Auburn before hosting the ranked Missouri Tigers next Saturday. Squarely on the bubble, an upset or two would do wonders for their tournament chances.
Their resurgence has hit Vegas as well, as the Razorbacks are 5-1 against the spread in their last six after starting 0-5 in conference both straight-up and ATS.
The Aggies are trending in the opposite direction ATS, as they’re 3-6 in their last nine ATS after starting the year 10-5. The Aggies are fighting for an outside shot at a regular season SEC title but have a brutal stretch of four ranked teams (three in the top 5) in their last six.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M CSN Power Rankings Line
Our metrics system has a surprising expectation, as it favors the Razorbacks by 1 on the road. While the line hasn’t been released for this game, the expectation is that the Aggies will be favored by a moderate margin at home.
Prediction for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
With the SEC so strong this season, there’s very little opportunity for a slip up. That makes predicting games difficult, but there’s one trend I’m following in this one: both of these teams have played their fair share of close games, with one team fairing substantially better in such games.
Seven of Texas A&M’s 11 conference games have finished within seven points, and the Aggies are 5-2 in such outcomes.
On the other hand, eight of Arkansas’ 11 conference games have finished within eight points, but the Razorbacks are just 2-6 in those contests.
Close games can often be based around luck (KenPom has Arkansas 244th in luck rating) but can also be indicative of an inability to get things done in the clutch.
In Arkansas’ case, I think it’s most indicative of the Razorbacks’ ability to avoid being blown out. In those six close losses, Arkansas led by more than three points just twice, and never after the 15:00 mark of the second half. It’s not like Calipari’s squad is blowing late leads, they’re just avoiding big deficits.
That’s important, given the spread of this game. Texas A&M opened as an 8.5-point favorite, but the Aggies have only won three games by that margin in conference play.
Arkansas has only lost three games by more than eight points all season, and just once in its last 10 games. The Razorbacks simply don’t get blown out, a testament to Calipari’s coaching acumen.
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Given Texas A&M’s ability on the defensive side of the ball, I expect this to be a low-scoring game. The under is 7-1 in Texas A&M’s last eight games, with only an uncharacteristically strong shooting performance by South Carolina preventing the clean sweep.
I expected the total to open around 140-145, and it came in just under that, at 139.5. Still, that’s not deterring me from following the numbers and taking the under.
Expect the Aggies to win, but it will be neither pretty nor comfortable.
Prediction: Texas A&M 68, Arkansas 64
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