No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 1 seed Duke will battle on Saturday, March 29, for a difficult spot in the Final Four in San Antonio. This March Madness Elite Eight showdown features two of the most explosive offensive teams in college basketball.
The Blue Devils, led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, are 7.5-point favorites, while Alabama is coming off an NCAA-record 25 three-pointers in their Sweet 16 win over BYU.
Alabama vs. Duke Betting Preview
All Alabama vs. Duke odds are from BetMGM Sportsbook and are correct as of Friday, March 28, 2025.
- Spread: Duke -7.5
- Moneyline: Duke -300, Alabama +240
- Over/Under: 174.5 points
- Game Time: Saturday, March 29, 8:49 p.m. ET
- Location: Prudential Center | Newark, N.J.
- How to Watch: CBS, TBS, or truTV
The Blue Devils enter as clear favorites, largely due to Cooper Flagg’s recent dominance. Duke shot an astonishing 60% from the field against Arizona in the Sweet 16, and if they maintain that efficiency, Alabama’s defensive struggles could be exposed.
However, Alabama’s offensive explosion against BYU, including an NCAA-record 25 three-pointers, makes them a major threat to pull off the upset.
Expect the over/under line of 174.5 points to be tested, as both teams thrive in high-scoring affairs. Duke’s defense, ranked among the best in the ACC, will need to contain Alabama’s perimeter shooters if they want to cover the spread.
Alabama vs. Duke CSN Winning Probability
- Duke: 67%
- Alabama: 33%
The CSN winning probability heavily favors Duke at 67%, aligning with their status as the No. 1 seed. However, Alabama’s ability to catch fire from beyond the arc makes them a dangerous underdog.
If Alabama replicates their three-point barrage from the Sweet 16, the 33% probability could prove misleading. Duke’s interior dominance and Flagg’s all-around brilliance, however, give them a clear edge.
Prediction for Alabama vs. Duke
Duke enters the Elite Eight with the best player on the court in Cooper Flagg, who erupted for 30 points, seven assists, and six rebounds in the win over Arizona. Flagg’s ability to score efficiently, defend multiple positions, and facilitate makes him a nightmare matchup for Alabama.
The Crimson Tide’s game plan will revolve around Mark Sears and their three-point attack. If Alabama gets hot from deep, they can put serious pressure on Duke. However, the Blue Devils’ inside presence and ability to score at will in the paint make them the more reliable pick.
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Duke’s balance on offense, combined with their superior defensive capabilities, should allow them to control the tempo and exploit Alabama’s defensive gaps. While Alabama’s shooting can keep them in the game, Duke’s all-around game should be enough to push them to the Final Four.
Prediction: Duke 92, Alabama 88
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