As far as the 2025 NBA Draft goes, Rutgers Scarlett Knights star Ace Bailey has as high of a ceiling as anyone. Although his team has had a disappointing season, Bailey has shown exactly why he was the No. 2 recruit in the country prior to his freshman season.
His elite scoring and shot-making ability have been on full display at the college level, as the freshman is averaging 19.4 ppg. Our scouting report on the potentially generational wing takes a deep dive into his strengths, areas of improvement, NBA Draft projection, potential career outlook, and an intriguing player comparison.
Ace Bailey Scouting Report
Size: 6’10″, 200 pounds (Unverified)
Key Stat: On Jan. 2, Bailey became just the second freshman since 2005 with a stat line of over 39 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks (Andrew Wiggins, 2014).
Projected Role: Top-end wing scorer with the ability to create own shot; versatile and lengthy defender
Strengths
- Tremendous shot-maker and scorer who oozes confidence.
- Makes splash plays defensively using his length (reported 7’0″ wingspan).
- At 6’10”, extremely comfortable on the perimeter.
- Good shooter from three-point- and mid-range, has relatively quick trigger.
- Comfortable posting up and rising up over smaller defenders.
- Excellent athleticism and mobility for his size; moves like a guard.
Areas to Improve
- Gets too comfortable on the perimeter; lack of scoring in the paint.
- Needs to add mass and strength to his frame.
- Questionable shot selection and decision-making (1:2 assist-to-turnover ratio).
- Shows signs of lockdown defensive ability but needs more consistent effort.
Ceiling: No. 1 scoring option on contending team, slightly above-average defender; All-Star and All-NBA capabilities
Floor: Spark-scorer off the bench, liability effort-wise defensively
Player Comp: Kevin Durant
Ace Bailey NBA Draft Outlook
Bailey is one of many promising prospects eligible for the 2025 NBA Draft. While he’s arguably exceeded previous expectations during his freshman season with the Scarlett Knights, we may not know until draft night what Bailey’s true draft range will be.
Currently, it’s presumed he could go as high as second and as low as a late lottery pick. His base of excellent shot-making and mechanics will entice many teams in a league that is always looking for more players with the ability to shoot threes. Bailey fits that mold at 6’10” with a reported 7’0″ wingspan.
The downside is that he hasn’t seemed to fully learn how to use his body in the most advantageous way. His tendency to drift along the perimeter, on and off the ball, sometimes negates his tall frame. His lack of paint points is also a concern.
He makes up for that with his mid-range and three-point shooting ability, which allows him to rise up and release the ball over a defender’s outstretched arms.
2024-25 College Basketball Power Rankings: Every Team Ranked 1-364
That’s where the Kevin Durant comparison comes into play.
While it’s a huge bar to set, take it in a literal sense. Bailey moves much like Durant on the court, and their shot charts are extremely similar as well. While not possessing Durant’s ball-handling abilities at this point in his career, Bailey can rise up over defenders whenever he pleases—a Durant staple for nearly two decades.
If his efficiency is average to above average, that is a huge plus for teams. But his shot selection, which has sometimes been questioned with the Scarlett Knights, could scare some teams away.
Bailey also leaves something to be desired on the defensive end in terms of consistent effort. If an organization believes they can mold him into an above-average defender while cleaning up his decision-making, he could go as high as second in the NBA Draft.
Bailey’s Potential Career Outlook
Going high in the draft means going to a team that has likely not had much success in recent years.
Bailey would seemingly thrive in that environment—so long as he has a firm coach who reigns him in when his shot selection becomes a detriment. The high number of shooting reps would help him improve his three-point shooting and ball-handling consistency.
MARCH MADNESS BUBBLE WATCH: IS YOUR TEAM IN?
If he stays on a path of steady improvement, with his talent, he’d be an All-Star-caliber player far before his prime years. He’ll be 19 years old when he makes his NBA debut, presumably giving himself and the team that drafts him a long runway toward success.
In his prime, Bailey has the potential to be a primary go-to scorer for a contender and can more than hold his own at the defensive end, providing the same highlight-reel steals and blocks we’ve seen at the collegiate level.
Bottom Line: Bailey’s scoring talent should be evident right away in the league. If he has the right infrastructure around him early in his career, which isn’t a guarantee, he should become a tremendous NBA scorer and player overall.
At 6’10”, Bailey can do things that smaller guards wish they could do while moving at a pace big men his height could only dream of.
If he locks in more consistently on the defensive side of the floor, fixes up some decision-making and shot-selection issues, and becomes more aggressive toward the hoop, Bailey has as high of a ceiling as anyone in the 2025 draft.
Draft Projection: Top-Five Pick
College Sports Network has you covered with the latest news, analysis, insights, and trending stories in football, basketball, and more!
