March Madness is so beloved because of Cinderella stories. We watch March Madness because of teams like the 2018 Loyola Chicago Ramblers, who were a No. 11 seed and made it all the way to the Final Four, or the 2021 FAU Owls team that made it to the Final Four as a No. 9 seed.
There seems always to be a mid-major program that makes a deep run in March, so here are the five teams to watch out for in 2025.
5 Mid-Major Teams That Can Make Some Noise in March
Just some quick notes on how we’re grading these teams. We will use KenPom ratings, named after Ken Pomeroy, who has been one of the biggest names in bracketology for a long time. For the current seeding, we will use Team Rankings projections.
Also, for those wondering, Gonzaga will not be included in this as they have surpassed the mid-major title.
5) Utah State Aggies
The Utah State Aggies have been very consistent this year in the Mountain West, and I have either them or New Mexico coming out on top of the conference. The Aggies rank 42nd in Kenpom rankings and are a projected No. 10 seed by Team Rankings.
What makes the Aggies so good is their offense, which is ranked 26th in the country as they average 81.7 points per game this season.
The Aggies are led by their two guards, Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev, who make up one of the best duos in the country, with both averaging over 15 points per game. If the Aggies can continue their scoring prowess into March, look for them to make some noise.
4) New Mexico Lobos
The New Mexico Lobos are certainly a mid-major team that can make a run this coming March. New Mexico is ranked 39th on KenPom’s rankings and is the 26th-ranked team in the country in the latest AP poll. Team Rankings currently has the Lobos as a No. 11 seed currently.
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I like this New Mexico team a lot. They are well-rounded, with the 55th best scoring defense in the country and the 19th best scoring offense in the nation. The Lobos are led by Bryant Dent, who is averaging 19.6 points and 6.5 assists this season. If he gets hot in March, watch out for this Lobos team.
3) Drake Bulldogs
The Drake Bulldogs are a team that always feels like they are in the NCAA tournament or on the bubble, but this year, it feels like they are a lock to play in it. While Drake is 59th in KenPom rankings and is a projected No. 11 seed by Team Ranking, I think it’s worth noting that the pace and defense that Drake plays should make they a difficult matchup for some of the better teams in the country.
Drake has the third best defense in the nation this year, only allowing 59.2 points per game. But their defense comes from the pace at which they play offense.
The Bulldogs rank third to last in the entire country in possessions per game, meaning they hold on to the ball and score late into the shot clock. This has historically been a kryptonite to teams like Alabama who like to score fast, and could be the reason why Drake goes far this year.
2) VCU Rams
VCU made a tournament run in 2011 as a No. 11 seed, going all the way to the Final Four, and is a team that consistently makes the tournament. However, I think this may be the best VCU team yet. They are the 32nd-ranked team in KenPom rankings, and Team Rankings has them as a projected No. 9 seed.
This VCU team is fantastic defensively, with the 13th best defense in the country only allowing 62.8 points per game this season. The Rams are so sound defensively and should be worrisome for whatever top seed team will have to play them. Watch out for VCU this year, as they are poised to make a lot of noise.
1) St. Mary’s Gaels
Aside from Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s has been the standard for mid-major success over the last few years. This year, they are currently ranked as the twentieth in KenPom rankings and are just outside the Top 25 in the latest AP poll. Team rankings has them rated as an eight seed currently, the highest among all mid-majors.
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If Saint Mary’s has any success in March Madness, it will be due to their stout defense. The Gaels have the fourth-ranked defense in all of college basketball, only allowing 60.5 points per game this season.
With a defense that good, St. Mary’s could be a very dangerous team come March. Also, for anyone who pays attention to the trapezoid of excellence, St. Mary’s is the only mid-major team that is in it right now.
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